Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 181100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

High pressure centered over the Southeastern CONUS will continue
to dominate the weather pattern through the TAF period. VFR
conditions are expected with light east to southeast winds. Winds
will strengthen from 5-10 knots this afternoon. 05


.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
Benign weather conditions to start off the work week as sfc high
pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. Sfc high will
continue to shift eastward across the Southeastern CONUS/Mid-
Atlantic states during the short-term period. As the high moves
east, winds will gradually transition from the northeast this
morning to east-southeast this afternoon and evening. Slightly
warmer conditions are expected today with highs mainly from the
upper 70s to low 80s. Another quiet night is on tap for the region;
but east to southeasterly flow at the sfc and partly cloudy skies
will keep readings on the mild side, at least over the coastal

The influence of the sfc high remains over the region by Tuesday.
However, southeasterly flow will continue to bring more Gulf
moisture throughout the day. Daytime heating and pockets of PWATS
around 1-1.5 inches along the islands and over the Gulf waters may
allow for some spotty showers. A weak sfc low could develop over the
western Gulf, making its way towards the Upper TX coast Tuesday
night into Wednesday. In fact, deterministic and Hi-res models
suggest a broad area of theta-e advection and an increase in low to
mid-level instability ahead of this system. Therefore, have
increased cloud coverage and introduced low precipitation chances
across the Gulf waters and the coastal zones during this time-frame.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
The aforementioned disturbance, rooted at the H85 level with
possible weak sfc reflection/low should make its way inland across
the upper Tx coast or sw La Wednesday. Appears fairly insignificant
for the most part locally...maybe some isolated shra/tstms
offshore and east of I-45. (Highest moisture levels will be
displaced well to the east - across the eastern half of La into
the Mississippi Valley).

Otherwise, a fairly uneventful remainder of the week is expected.
PW`s vary between 0.75-1.40" most of the week depending on the day
and model of choice. Can`t completely rule out a rogue afternoon
shower or tstm, but chances for any individual location should be
quite low Thursday into Saturday. Flow aloft should be mostly
zonal and don`t have much hope the weak frontal boundary in north
Tx makes it this far south. Look for lows in the 60s inland & low
70s at the coast. Highs will be in the 80s.

A more pronounced onshore flow sets up later this weekend into
early next week which should bring some more cloud cover, higher
RH`s and iso-sct diurnally driven precip. Extended models don`t
show any more significant fronts on the horizon until maybe the
27th at the earliest.  47

Light wind & low seas regime for most of the work week. Exception
might be Tue night into Wed when a weak surface trof or low tracks
inland toward the eastern portions of the upper Tx coast. Even
then, not expecting much more than 15kt winds and some isolated
showers or thunderstorms. Otherwise, weak gradient will favor
landbreeze/seabreeze circulations for a good portion of the week.
A more predominate southeast wind sets up later this weekend with
a corresponding bump in seas. 47



College Station (CLL)  77  54  81  63  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)          78  58  82  66  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)        78  70  81  75  84 /   0   0  20  20  20





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