Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 261223

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
723 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Widespread stratus prevails across the region with IFR to MVFR
cigs mostly across our inland terminals. Expect largely MVFR cigs
to continue through late morning/early afternoon, before lifting
to VFR conditions. Streamer showers will continue to move across
the terminals through late morning ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front will slowly move ESE through the region today,
before stalling at/near the coast overnight. Rain chances and a
few lightning strikes will be possible along the boundary. Winds
will gradually shift to the north late tonight with gusts up to 20
kts possible behind the front. 05


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020/

SHORT TERM [through Tuesday]...

Stubborn stratus continues to linger thanks to a persistent
southerly moist boundary layer flow. This flow is associated with
a surface low and a quasi-stationary warm front currently
extending north of I-10. Expect a continuation of low to mid
clouds today with some breaks in the afternoon.

The main weather concern today is the arrival of a slow-moving cool
front, bringing increasing chances for precipitation. Uncertainty
still remains on timing and strength of this fropa as models are not
handling well this area of deep saturated layer at low levels.
Latest NAM and most HiRes/CAM solutions are faster/aggressive and
bring the front by mid-afternoon across College Station and into
the coastal counties late tonight into Tuesday. On the other hand,
the GFS, Canadian and ECMWF suggest a slower and weaker solution
and keep the front almost stationary (roughly along a line from
Columbus to Bryan) and weakens (GFS) or slowly moves through by
midweek (EC). With that said, have leaned towards the NAM
solutions as it usually handles well the progression/timing of
fronts. The boundary may stall at/close to our coastal counties late
tonight, before slowly moving over the waters late Tuesday into
Wednesday. In terms of precipitation, drizzle to scattered showers
are possible along and ahead of the front. While instability looks
limited, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially in
the afternoon at peak heating. Gusty winds are also expected with
higher gusts over the waters.

Temperature-wise, with persistent south winds, slightly warmer
values are expected today. Highs will range from the upper 70s to
low 80s. Behind the front, a drier and slightly cooler airmass
filters in bringing temperatures from the upper 60s to upper 70s
on Tuesday. 05

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Monday]...

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast brings Zeta northward
into the central Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning as a hurricane and then inland during the day on Wednesday
in/around the eastern Louisiana and Mississippi coast area as a
weakening system. At this time, all tropical storm force winds look
to remain well east of our area, and only increasing tides/surf and
rip currents are anticipated for our region. Of course, keep up with
the latest forecasts in case any changes in Zeta`s track or intensity
forecasts occur. A mid/upper level trough out west will lift out
Wednesday/Thursday and will bring a cold front through our area
Wednesday afternoon and evening. A drier and cooler airmass will
settle into the area for the remainder of the week and on through
the weekend.  42


Moderate onshore winds can be expected today. East to northeast winds
will set up tonight through Tuesday night, then winds become northwest
on Wednesday as Zeta heads toward the central Gulf coast. Rising winds
and seas can be expected in association with Zeta (forecast to make
landfall well off to our east) and also behind a cold front that will
move through the area on Wednesday. North to northwest winds can be
expected from Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week.
Look for gradually lowering seas toward the end of the week too.

Mariners should continue monitor the progress of Zeta.  42


College Station (CLL)      77  51  63  56  66 /  50  50  30  40  40
Houston (IAH)              79  62  75  66  76 /  20  20  20  30  40
Galveston (GLS)            78  72  78  72  79 /  20  10  20  30  30




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