Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1018 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...Update for Drought Conditions as of 5/6/2021...

Synopsis...

A slow moving cold front followed by a developing surface low pressure
brought abundant rainfall last week across a majority of the area.
Severe (D2) and Extreme (D3) Drought are no longer reported in
Southeast Texas, however Moderate (D1) Drought is still being seen
in eastern Montgomery, northern Liberty, extreme southern San Jacinto
and coastal Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston counties.

Because Extreme Drought (D3) is no longer occurring, this will be the
last Drought Information Statement unless drought conditions worsen
again.

Fire Impacts...

No burn bans are in effect across the area.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index...

KBDI is an index used to determine forest fire potential, which
is based on a daily water balance considering precipitation and
soil moisture. The KBDI can range from 0 to 800, where a value of
0 represents no moisture depletion, and 800 would be representative
of absolutely dry conditions. A KBDI between 600 and 800 is often
associated with severe drought and increased wildfire potential.
The following table lists the KBDI for counties across the region
as of May 6th that are experiencing drought conditions.

KBDI 0-200...   Burleson, Grimes, Walker, Trinity, Polk, San
                Jacinto, Houston, Madison, Brazos, Washington,
                Matagorda, Colorado, Austin, Chambers, Harris,
                Wharton, Fort Bend, Jackson, Montgomery.
KBDI 200-300... Liberty, Brazoria.
KBDI 300-400... None.
KBDI 400-500... Jackson, Galveston.

Climate Summary...
April`s average temperature ended up about a degree below normal for
College Station and Houston, while about a half a degree above normal
for Galveston. The end of month rainfall led to College Station
finishing the month half an inch above normal, but the area remains in
a deficit for the year by about two inches. Houston ended the
month about an inch below normal and remains around five inches below
normal for the year. Galveston missed out on the heaviest of rains last
week, so it ended the month around two inches below normal and about
eight inches below normal for the year.

Below is a list of the counties with their highest classification
as designated by the U.S. Drought Monitor as of May 6th.

None...Trinity, Walker, Grimes, Waller, Wharton.
D-0... Jackson, Colorado, Austin, Washington, Burleson, Brazos, Madison,
       Houston, Polk, Harris, Chambers, Fort Bend.
D-1... Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Montgomery, San Jacinto, Liberty
D-2... None.
D-3... None.

A brief description of the U.S. Drought Monitor classifications
currently ongoing in southeast Texas can be found below:

D3...Extreme Drought - Soil has large cracks and soil moisture is
very low.
D2...Severe Drought - Crop or pasture losses likely.
Some water shortages common and some water restrictions imposed.
D1...Moderate Drought - Some damage to crops and pastures.
Reservoirs or wells low. Voluntary water restrictions imposed.
D0...Abnormally Dry - Short term dryness. Plant growth slows.
Minor water deficits.

The next drought monitor update will be issued on May 13th.

Precipitation/Temperature Outlook...

The local forecast over the next week as of Thursday, May 6th...
Scattered showers will be possible on Sunday as onshore flow increases.
The next chance of more widespread precipitation will start on Monday
and continue through midweek as upper level disturbances move through
the region.

For the month of May, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is
calling for a 52% chance of above normal temperatures, 33% chance
for near normal temperatures, and 15% chance for below normal
temperatures. CPC is also forecasting a 36% chance of above
normal precipitation, 33% chance of near normal precipitation, and 31%
chance of below normal precipitation amounts for most of southeast
Texas.

The three-month outlook (for May through July) from the CPC
shows southeast Texas with a 63% chance of above normal
temperatures, 33% chance for near normal temperatures, and 4%
chance for below normal temperatures. With regards to rainfall,
the three-month outlook from CPC shows southeast Texas with a 33%
chance of above normal precipitation, 33% chance of near normal
precipitation, and 34% chance of below normal precipitation
amounts.

Hydrologic Summary...

Southeast Texas streamflows as of May 6th...

All river basins are reports above to much above normal streamflows.

Lake Name           Date     Level Percent Full (%)
Houston County Lake  5/6          100.0
Lake Livingston      5/6          100.0
Lake Conroe          5/6          100.0
Lake Houston         5/6          100.0
Lake Somerville      5/6          100.0
Lake Texana  5/6    99.6

&&

Next Drought Information Statement Issuance...

Drought Statements will be produce weekly while D3 - Extreme Drought
conditions persist. Thus, this will be the last Drought Statement
unless drought conditions worsen.

Related Websites...

1. For more information regarding agriculture impacts, please
reference the southeast and coastal bend under the Texas Crop and
Weather Report at: https://today.agrilife.org/2018/05/30 /texas-
crop-and-weather-report-may-30-2018/
2. For the latest KBDI: http://twc.tamu.edu/kbdi
3. For further clarification of the U.S. Drought Monitor, please
reference the following: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
4. For a list of Texas Public Water Systems limiting water use to
avoid shortages, please reference the following:
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/drinkingwater/trot/droughtw.html
5. For lake and reservoir levels:
https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide
6. For resources specific to local Drought Information, please
reference the following website from the National Weather Service
Houston/Galveston Office: https://www.weather.gov/hgx/drought
7. Burn ban information can be found here:
http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG
8. Local county pages experiencing burn bans or severe drought
can be found at the following web pages:
- http://www.co.jackson.tx.us/
- http://www.co.matagorda.tx.us/

Acknowledgements...

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced through a partnership
between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University
of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture,
and the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, including
the National Weather Service and the National Climate Data Center
(NCDC). Other agencies include the USGS, USDA, and State/Regional
Center Climatologists.

Questions or Comments...

If you have any question or comments, please contact:
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX WFO
1353 FM 646 Suite
202 Dickinson, TX 77539

Phone...281-337-5074

E-mail...sr-hgx.webmaster@noaa.gov

Fowler

$$


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