Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
237 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS RETURN...

.SYNOPSIS...

.Drought intensity and extent:
We almost went a month without extreme drought conditions in
southeast Texas, but the lack of rainfall over the past three
weeks quickly took away our slight reprieve. The latest drought
monitor update shows extreme drought conditions back over Austin
County, while surrounding areas in Washington, Colorado and
Wharton counties are still observing severe drought conditions.
The remaining counties in southeast Texas are either experiencing
abnormally dry and/or moderate drought conditions except for
Montgomery County...for now. Unfortunately, the lack of rain in
the forecast is a good indicator that drought conditions will not
only persist but worsen over the next week or so.

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

.New Impacts:

East Texas officials warn of increasing wildfire danger and urge
caution with activities that could ignite a fire.

.Previously Noted Impacts:

Several impacts have been reported including Texas deer having
less forage due to drought conditions, as well as no Highland
Lakes water will be available to LCRA interruptible water
customers in the Gulf Coast and water conservation notices across
local communities in southeast Texas.

.Fire Impacts and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index:
A burn ban is in effect for Chambers, Polk, Walker, Houston,
Washington, Colorado and Jackson counties.

KBDI is an index used to determine forest fire potential, which
is based on a daily water balance considering precipitation and
soil moisture. The KBDI can range from 0 to 800, where a value of
0 represents no moisture depletion, and 800 would be
representative of absolutely dry conditions. A KBDI between 600
and 800 is often associated with severe drought and increased
wildfire potential. The following table lists the KBDI for
counties across the region as of October 4th that are experiencing
drought conditions.

KBDI 0-200... None
KBDI 200-300... None
KBDI 300-400... None
KBDI 400-500... Jackson, Matagorda
KBDI 500-600... Colorado, Wharton, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Galveston,
Harris, Waller, Montgomery, Liberty, Grimes, Brazos, Burleson
KBDI 600-700... Houston, Trinity, Polk, Madison, Walker, San
Jacinto, Washington, Austin, Chambers
KBDI 700-800... None

.CLIMATE SUMMARY...

Very little rain has fallen over the past 30 days across southeast
Texas which is proven by the widespread extreme departure from
normal values ranging -3 inches to -5+ inches.

Below is a list of the counties with their highest classification
as designated by the U.S. Drought Monitor as of September 27th.

None...Montgomery
D-0... Houston, Trinity, Polk, San Jacinto, Walker, Madison,
Liberty, Harris, Matagorda
D-1... Burleson, Brazos, Grimes, Waller, Chambers, Brazoria,
Galveston, Fort Bend, Jackson
D-2... Wharton, Colorado, Washington
D-3... Austin
D-4... None

A brief description of the U.S. Drought Monitor classifications
currently ongoing in southeast Texas can be found below:

D3...Extreme Drought - Soil has large cracks and soil moisture is
very low.
D2...Severe Drought - Crop or pasture losses likely.
Some water shortages common and some water restrictions imposed.
D1...Moderate Drought - Some damage to crops and pastures.
Reservoirs or wells low. Voluntary water restrictions imposed.
D0...Abnormally Dry - Short term dryness. Plant growth slows.
Minor water deficits.

The next drought monitor update will be issued on October 6th.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...

.Precipitation/Temperature Outlook...

The local forecast over the next week looks to be fairly quiet
with a slight warming trend the first few days, followed by a
weak frontal passage toward the end of the week. High pressure
will build back keeping the temperatures slightly higher and the
precipitation at a minimum.

For the month of October, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
shows a 41% chance of above normal temperatures, 33% chance of
normal temperatures, and 26% chance of below normal temperatures.
CPC is also forecasting a 21% chance of above normal
precipitation, 33% chance of near normal precipitation, and 46%
chance of below normal precipitation amounts for most of southeast
Texas.

The three-month outlook (for October through December) from the
CPC shows southeast Texas with a 52% chance of above normal
temperatures, 33% chance for near normal temperatures, and 15%
chance for below normal temperatures. With regards to rainfall,
the three-month outlook from CPC shows southeast Texas with a 22%
chance of above normal precipitation, 33% chance of near normal
precipitation, and 45% chance of below normal precipitation
amounts.

.HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

.Streamflow Status...
According to the USGS real-time streamflows, many river gauge
locations across the area are running below normal to much below
normal. The only exceptions are gauge locations within the Harris
County Bayou network which are showing near normal conditions.

.Reservoir Status as of 10/4...

Lake Name                   Level Percent Full (%)
Houston County Lake                 83.9
Lake Livingston                     96.8
Lake Conroe                         90.2
Lake Houston                        97.0
Lake Somerville                     63.2
Gibbons Ck Res.                     71.2
Lake Texana                         72.5

.Next Issuance Date:

This product will be updated November 4th, 2022, or sooner if
drought conditions change significantly.

.Related web sites:

Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses:
US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov
NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought
Agricultural Impacts in the Southeast and Coastal
Bend section of the Texas Crop and Weather Report:
https://today.agrilife.org/category/farm-ranch
Texas Keetch-Byram Drought Index: https://twc.tamu.edu/kbdi

Water Use Limits:
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/drinkingwater/trot/droughtw.html

Lake and Reservoir Levels:
https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

More Local Drought Information:
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/drought

Burn Bans: https://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.png

Websites for information from counties impacted by drought:

Additional water and river information:
NWS: https://water.weather.gov
OWP: https://water.noaa.gov
US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil

.Acknowledgements:

The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the
National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental
Information, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists
and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites,
state cooperative extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS.

.Contact Information:

If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
1353 FM 646 Suite 202
Dickinson, TX 77539
Phone...281-337-5074
E-mail...sr-hgx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

KLG


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