Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000 FXUS66 KHNX 062135 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 135 PM PST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler today and tomorrow in the wake of the cold front that passed through the area this morning. Dry southwesterly flow will prevail for the next couple of days before a slow moving system brings cooler, unsettled weather to the forecast area next Tuesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... A weak cold front came through the region this morning that lead to isolated light showers along with breezy conditions along the Coastal Range. Latest satellite imagery shows some cloud cover banked up across the southwest side of the San Joaquin Valley, which will dissipate throughout the day. Breezy conditions can be expected in the Mojave Desert today due to an appreciable pressure gradient, with the HREF ensemble mean showing wind gusts around 45 mph this afternoon through tonight. Have issued a wind advisory from 3 PM this afternoon through 2 AM Sunday through and below the Kern County Mountain passes accordingly. Thereafter, a low amplitude disturbance embedded in the southwesterly flow will bring cloud cover to the area again tomorrow, but not enough moisture or lift to generate precip. Calm weather for most of the day Monday as a trough from the Gulf of Alaska slowly dips to the south. As the trough digs further south Tuesday, showers are forecast begin impacting the northern portion of the CWA. WPC 500 mb clustering has continuously showed a slower, more offshore trend to this trough, which favors lower QPF across the forecast area Tuesday. By Wednesday, the cold core aloft will swing eastward giving the San Joaquin Valley enough instability to support a thunderstorm or two through the afternoon. Both the Euro and GFS ensemble means are showing the trough exit the area Thursday, with the EPS being the slower solution. So some unsettled weather remains possible for Thursday. By this Friday, the general consensus is for ridging to redevelop across the Eastern Pacific, which should shunt precip chances over the weekend. && .AVIATION... Wind gusts up to 35 knots over the Tehachapi Mountains through 10z Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected over the central CA interior for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 2 AM PST Sunday for CAZ196>199. && $$ public...Bollenbacher aviation....Bollenbacher weather.gov/hanford

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