Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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152 FXUS66 KHNX 181923 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1223 PM PDT Sun Apr 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS...The upward trend in temperatures will continue through Monday, with afternoon highs ending up 10 to 15 degrees above normal levels. A weak disturbance late Tuesday into Wednesday will bring cooler temperatures and breezy to locally gusty conditions especially for the Kern County mountains and desert areas, and increase chances of light precipitation to the higher elevations of the Sierra on Wednesday and Thursday. Dry conditions with increasing temperatures will return by the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Blocky pattern continues with an omega block pattern in place over the eastern Pacific and west coast. The ridging associated with this setup will continue to transition slowly eastward and has brought warming temperatures. Monday high temperatures will be running about 10 to 15 degrees above normal levels which for both Fresno and Bakersfield currently sits at 75 degrees. There is a 98 percent chance on Monday that Fresno will have a high temperature greater than 85 degrees, that percentage drops a bit for Bakersfield to 84 percent. A few locations hitting the 90 degree level is not out of the question and for Fresno there is a 27 percent chance of that occurring but only a 12 percent chance for Bako. Monday looks to be the warmest day of the workweek as slight cooling takes place on Tuesday when a weak disturbance rides into the region after it moves through the Pacific Northwest through a saddle in the omega feature and transitions southeastward over the west coast into our neck of the woods. This weak system will bring some synoptic cooling, breezy to locally gusty conditions, and slight chances of light precipitation for the higher elevations of the Sierra. Expected precipitation amounts will be about two hundredths of an inch or less where it does occur. The stronger winds will be in the wind favored locations of the coastal hills and the Kern County mountain passes and desert areas. At this time the gusts in the Kern Mountains could approach 40 mph on Monday night into Tuesday as the system approaches and again on Tuesday night into Wednesday with the disturbance over the region. Ridging then once again rebuilds into the region by late Thursday and will bring a return to warmer temperatures. High temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley on Friday and into the weekend will be in the mid to upper 80s once again. But hey, we should continue to enjoy this, because triple digits will be here before we know it. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...Andersen aviation....JEB weather.gov/hanford

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