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550
FXUS66 KHNX 120835
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
135 AM PDT Sun May 12 2024


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.KEY MESSAGES...
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1. A warming trend is expected through today, where high
temperatures this afternoon will be around ten degrees above
normal for this time of year.
2. High temperatures will remain well above seasonal values
Monday through Friday.
3. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada
Sunday afternoon, Monday afternoon, and Tuesday afternoon.
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.DISCUSSION...
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A ridge building over the area as the low pressure system that
impacted the area tracks eastward will allow the warming trend
to continue through tomorrow. In the San Joaquin Valley,
temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid-90s for much of the
area. As ridge building continues into the beginning of next
week, temperatures will stay nearly 10 degrees above normal
until Saturday of next week. Here are probabilities that
temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley could reach 93 degrees or
higher this afternoon:
Bakersfield: 51%
Fresno: 61%
Hanford: 56%
Lemoore: 61%
Merced: 41%
Madera: 41%
Reedley: 21%
Porterville: 26%
Visalia: 51%

Alongside this warming, a couple shortwave troughs will move
through the area, and will provide enough lift and instability
to bring afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances to the
Sierra Nevada. These thunderstorm chances will persist through
this afternoon, tomorrow, and Tuesday before dropping off on
Wednesday as the shortwave troughs begin moving eastward across
the US. Convective available potential energy values are around
300 J/kg this afternoon, and more than double for tomorrow and
Tuesday afternoon. Main threats with these thunderstorms include
cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and wind gusts of 45 mph
or higher. Here are probabilities that certain Sierra Nevada
locations will see thunderstorms this afternoon:
Tioga Pass: 11%
Yosemite Valley: 12%
Tuolumne Meadows: 13%
Wawona: 11%
Lake Thomas Edison: 10%
Oakhurst: 6%
Shaver Lake/Grant Grove/Three Rivers: 5%
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.AVIATION...
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Areas of localized MVFR due to thunderstorm activity possible from
21Z through 03Z this afternoon and evening in the Sierra
Nevada. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across Central
California for at least the next 24 hours.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
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ISSUED:  05/11/2024 13:36
EXPIRES: 05/12/2024 23:59
None.
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.CERTAINTY...

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The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
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$$

public/aviation...AS
PIO/IDSS..........VJP

weather.gov/hanford