Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 162141
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
241 PM PDT Wed May 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moving inland to our north will bring a
much cooler air mass into the central California interior during
the next couple of days accompanied by breezy winds and isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra. Friday
through the weekend will be significantly warmer with a slight
chance of afternoon thunderstorms near the Sierra crest.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low continues to swing inland across central CA,
with associated convective activity currently remaining to our
north. Cooling with the passing system has 24 hr temperature
trends across our area running down generally around 4-8 degrees.
while moderate onshore breezes prevail.

The upper low is progged to drift into the Great Basin area by
Thursday. Expect increasing gusty west to northwest winds as the
low swings through, with a slight chance for convection over the
Sierra through the evening. Wind gusts along the west side of the
SJ Valley may also kick up some blowing dust this evening.

Temperatures will remain a few degrees below climo Thursday with
continued chances for afternoon and evening Sierra convection as
the low lifts out slowly, leaving a persisting troughy pattern in
place. Temperatures then trend upward through the weekend under
weak ridging ahead of another developing Northeast Pacific trough.
By Saturday and Sunday, afternoon highs will be a few degrees
above normal. Despite the weak ridging overhead, there will still
be a possibility of convection over the higher Sierra elevations.

Model solutions are generally similar with the developing low for
early next week, just some slight deviation in the exact track. A
closed low is progged to dive inland across northern CA by Monday
and swing across part of central CA Tuesday. The result will be
another cooldown with gusty winds over mountain ridges and through
and below the passes. High temps will be a few degrees below
normal Monday and Tuesday, and convection chances will continue
over the Sierra zones. Wednesday will bring a slight warming trend
with decreasing chances for Sierra convection as the low pulls
away.




&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR and local mountain obscuring IFR in low clouds and
showers over the Southern Sierra Nevada with isolated thunderstorms
possible through 03Z Thursday then developing again after 18Z
Thursday. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail across the
Central CA Interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...JEB
avn/fw...JEB
synopsis...JEB

weather.gov/hanford



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