117
FXUS66 KHNX 241056
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
256 AM PST Fri Jan 24 2025

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry weather will continue through Friday with above average
high temperatures and below average low temperatures across the
San Joaquin Valley.

2. There is a 40 to 70 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of
rain on Sunday for the San Joaquin Valley.

3. A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect Saturday
afternoon and evening through Monday afternoon. The Sierra
Nevada has a 40 to 60 percent chance of 2 inches or more of snow
over the weekend with higher probabilities in Tulare County.
And the Kern County Mountains have a 65 to 85 percent chance of
6 inches or more of snow Saturday into Sunday at and above
4,500 feet. At pass level around 3,500 to 4,000 feet there is a
25 to 65 percent chance of an inch of snow or more.

4. Monday morning through next Wednesday morning have a 30 to
85 percent chance of freezing temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An eastern Pacific ridge extending up into the Gulf of Alaska
dominates the flow pattern for the west this morning. A short
wave digs today into the Golden State and transfers into a cut-
off low setting up the weather for the weekend over the region.
The upper low is slow to exit the region and expected to kick
out early next week. Confidence is low in the timing of the
ejection. This is well depicted in the ensembles. Typically the
slower exit is the preferred solution with ejecting upper lows.
When the upper low ejects a ridge builds over the region and
slowly flattens at the end of week into northwest flow for
Interior Central California.

Ahead of the shortwave today a day of above normal temperatures
is anticipated for the area. The probability of exceedance (PoE) of
70 degrees today is 60 percent at Bakersfield and 75 percent at
Coalinga. Visalia to Hanford 15 to 30 percent With Fresno
coming in at 10 percent. The record maximums are in the upper
70s across the southern San Joaquin Valley therefore not a
threat to break any records but still a good 10 degrees above
normal.

Saturday ushers in the change. The PoE of 70 goes to zero. The
PoE of 60 degrees for most of the valley is 25 to 35 percent
with the exceptions of Hanford at 65 percent and Bakersfield at
75 percent for the warm spots. The focus turns to winter weather
in the Sierra and Grapevine. For the Sierra at and above the
snow level (roughly 3700 to 4900 feet) the 25th percentile snow
amount ranges from 2 to 4 inches. The 75th percentile ranges
from 3 inches to 10 inches. The high end or 90th percentile
value is 13 inches this morning. Jumping over to the Grapevine.
The 25th percentile is zero with the 75th percentile around a
1/2 inch with the highest or 90th percentile around an inch and
half with this mornings runs.

Exiting into early next week a very slow warming trend, however
Tuesday through Thursday morning in the southwestern section of
the San Joaquin Valley have another chance at temperatures
falling below freezing. The PoE of falling below 32 in that
region is 20 to 60 percent on average for that time frame. The
pattern returns to dry with the next slim chance at
precipitation on next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
In the San Joaquin Valley VFR is the general flight rule. From
14-18Z there is an increased probability of 30 to 60 percent for
MVFR/IFR at KVIS. Otherwise, all other terminals have less than
20 percent probabilities of flight restrictions during that
time frame this morning. For the rest of Central California, VFR
conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  01/23/2025 14:58
EXPIRES: 01/24/2025 23:59
On Friday January 24 2025,  Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno County.  Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning
For All in Fresno County. No Burning Unless Registered in Kern,
Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in
Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 PM PST Monday
for CAZ318-323>331.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 4 PM PST Monday
for CAZ333>336.
&&

$$

Proton/EW

weather.gov/hanford