437
FXUS66 KHNX 162018
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
118 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM Tuesday morning
for Eastern Kern County.

2. Another second upper level trough will slide through on
Wednesday and Thursday bringing chances for precipitation to the
area.

3. Temperatures across our area will remain below average
through THursday before a weekend warmup.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong upper low pressure system now centered
near Yosemite National Park. Precipitation from this system has
been minimal across our area at this time, but with increased
instability over our area this afternoon showers will be
possible across much of our area with the best chances over the
Sierra Nevada north of Fresno County closer to the low center.
In addition, isolated thunderstorms remain possible in the
Sierra Nevada through early this evening. A Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect for the Sierra Nevada from Fresno
County northward above 8000 feet until 500 pm PDT today. The
low will also produce strong downslope wind gusts over the
Mojave Desert Slopes and the Kern County Deserts through
tonight and a Wind Advisory remains in effect for these areas
until 500 am PDT Tuesday.

SREF is indicating that the low will lift northeast across the
Great Basin on Tuesday resulting in a drying trend across our
area with clearing skies. However, a cool northwest flow behind
this system will maintain below normal temperatures across our
area on Tuesday. Latest NBM is indicating a PoE of 80 DEG F
between 30 and 60 percent for the San Joaquin Valley on
Tuesday.

Another strong upper low is progged to drop southward off the
CA coast on Wednesday then move inland over central CA on
Thursday bringing increased cloud and precipitation chances to
our area between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday evening. This
system is not exepected to be as cold as today`s system, with
snow levels mainly running between 9000 and 10000 feet, but it
is progged to be significantly wetter with QPF progs indicating
half and inch to an inch of liquid precipitation in the SIerra
Nevada from Fresno County northward. Most of the San Joaquin
Valley is progged to pick up a tenth of an inch or less of
rainfall although probabilistic guidance is indicating most of
the valley has between a 45 and 60 percent PoE of 0.10 inches
of rainfall so a wetting rain is not out of the question.

This second upper low is progged to lift into the Great Basin
on Friday a high pressure ridge strengthens off the CA coast.
This ridge is progged to build inland into CA over the weekend
and into early next week with the NBM indicating a PoE of 90
DEG F of 30 to 50 percent across the San Joaquin Valley on
Saturday and a PoE of 60 to 75 percent across the San Joaquin
Valley on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local mountain obscuring IFR in
the Sierra Nevada in low clouds and showers thru 06Z Tue with
isolated thunderstorms possible. Areas of MVFR and local IFR
visibilities near wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ337>339.
Winter Weather Advisory above 8000 feet until 5 PM PDT this
afternoon for CAZ323-326>328.
&&

$$

public/aviation...DAS
idss...AS

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