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000
FXUS64 KHUN 191656
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1156 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

.UPDATE...
For 18Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 856 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

Tranquil conditions this morning across the Tennessee Valley region,
as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds into the area. The
end result will be clear and sunny conditions, thanks to the strong
subsidence in place. A cool, dry air mass has created a little bit of
a chill in the air early this morning. However, with plenty of
sunshine, temperatures should warm to around the 70 degree mark
across most of the area today. Overall, an absolutely beautiful
Spring day for everyone to enjoy. Forecast remains on track and only
minor adjustments were made based on current temperature trends.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

The quiet wx pattern will continue tonight/into Tue, as the sfc high
moves ewd across the region, while an upper trough axis rotates thru
the nrn/mid Plains states. Lows early Wed look to fall into the mid
40s for most spots, before temps rebound into the lower 70s later in
the day Tue. Moisture will then begin to filter back into the area
from the south late Tue, as the sfc high moves east into the mid/srn
Atlantic states. A sfc wave associated with the upper trough pattern
will then lift NE into the OH Valley Tue night, as an attendant cold
front pushes ewd across the SE region. This front should move thru
the mid TN Valley late Tue night into early Wed, with perhaps a few
light showers developing along the front over portions of the area
north of the TN River. This front will also usher in some noticeably
cooler/drier air later in the day Wed, with afternoon highs trending
more in the upper 50s, as cloud cover quickly diminishes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

This influx of cooler air will translate into perhaps some near
record lows Wed night, as temps fall into the mid/upper 30s. This
should also result in areas of frost developing into early Thu.
Another strong dome of high pressure out of the Plains states will
then build into much of the ern CONUS Thu, as afternoon temps trend
a few degrees warmer, with highs in the lower 60s. The cooler air
will linger into early Fri, with lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s,
before temps rebound slightly more into the mid 60s during the
afternoon hrs Fri.

Moisture will then again spread back into the region Fri night, as
an upper trough axis drops well into the srn Plains and an attendant
sfc low develops across the wrn Gulf Coast. The latest global model
spreads continue to diverge with the eventual track of this sfc wave
more into the cntrl Gulf states late Fri night into Sat. Any impact
wx concerns will be dependent on the movement of the warm front nwd,
as the upper trough pattern translates ewd into the SE states. The
latest blended model guidance suggests some instability developing
across much of the area into the weekend period, which may result in
a few embedded tstms within increasing showers. Further model runs
will hopefully provide a better consensus on the prob for any tstms
and its associated wx impacts. In any case, lingering rainfall should
taper off to the east Sat evening, as the sfc low lifts into the mid
Atlantic Basin, with cloud cover diminishing into the day Sun. Highs
this weekend look to climb into the upper 60s/near 70F, while lows
trend in the upper 40s/around 50F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period.
Scattered decks of Cu, with ceilings around 2.5 kft will dissipate
after sunset. The end result will be a mostly clear sky, with light
winds through the remainder of the period.

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM...09
AVIATION...AMP.24


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