Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000 FXUS63 KICT 191755 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1255 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 Current satellite water vapor imagery shows next weather system over southern Canada dropping southward. This system is fleet-footed and will affect central Kansas by around midnight tonight, then quickly shift east into Missouri by early Tuesday afternoon. A strong cold front will surge southward across central Kansas this morning, with southern Kansas witnessing warmer daytime highs before the colder air arrives this afternoon. Northerly winds and cold air advection will spike up behind the frontal passage. A well pronounced frontogenesis snow band will develop over central Kansas around midnight and slide southward into southeast Kansas by Tuesday morning. The lift is quite strong with-in dendritic zone which will ramp up the snowfall rates(around 1"/hr). The expected higher snowfall rate has decent potential for snow accumulation to occur on some roadways in central Kansas with (1 to 3 inches) possible and lighter amounts over southern Kansas. The sun will come out pretty quickly in the wake of this system, and with the higher sun angle any snow would melt rapidly Tuesday afternoon. Cold below freezing temperatures will affect central Kansas tonight, and then the whole region for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry weather for Wednesday with below normal daytime highs. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 Some light precipitation will be possible for mainly southern Kansas on Thursday-Friday. The first upper level wave will race eastward across the region on Thursday. Meanwhile a second weather system will emerge from the southwestern states and reach Kansas by Friday. Steep lapse rates aloft and some weak elevated instability could give way to a few embedded thunderstorms on Friday. Models show upper level ridge building over the central plains for the weekend with warmer temperatures and dry weather expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 Main aviation concerns will be increasing snow chances and lowering ceilings tonight into Tue morning. Strong cold front is surging quickly through the forecast area and stretches from near KCNU to near KEGT. MVFR ceilings are currently situated over central KS but have been slow to push south over the last couple of hours. Through 00z, most sites south of I-70 should remain at VFR levels. Upper impulse will quickly track out of the Northern Intermountain and into the Central Rockies by tonight. This will result in strong lift along a tight mid level baroclinic zone across central KS with the better snow chances starting around 06z. Looking at forecast soundings, confidence is increasing that the main precip type will be snow for KRSL-KGBD-KSLN. Still looking like the highest snowfall rates will be for areas generally along and north of I-70 in the 06z-12z timeframe. Further south for KICT-KHUT, feel that we will initially see a mix of rain and snow, going to all snow for a few hours generally after 08z. Should see some IFR cigs mixed-in with the heavier snow over central KS late tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 62 32 47 29 / 10 90 20 0 Hutchinson 54 29 46 28 / 10 100 10 0 Newton 56 30 45 28 / 10 100 30 0 ElDorado 63 32 46 29 / 10 90 50 0 Winfield-KWLD 69 33 48 30 / 10 60 40 0 Russell 45 25 45 25 / 10 100 10 0 Great Bend 47 26 44 26 / 10 100 10 0 Salina 48 28 46 27 / 10 100 20 0 McPherson 51 29 45 27 / 10 100 20 0 Coffeyville 72 36 47 29 / 0 30 80 0 Chanute 67 34 46 29 / 0 70 80 0 Iola 65 33 45 28 / 10 80 80 0 Parsons-KPPF 70 35 46 29 / 0 40 90 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ069-082-083- 091. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDJ LONG TERM...CDJ AVIATION...RBL

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