Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000 FXUS63 KICT 041146 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 546 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 An upper low will move eastward across the central Rockies today before turning southeast over the central/southern Plains tonight. Upper ridging ahead of the low early today will provide clear and mild conditions again, though the initial lift and moisture flux ahead of the upper low will result in increasing clouds and a slight chance for showers across central Kansas by the late afternoon. Rain chances will ramp up markedly later this evening as forcing for ascent increases ahead of the approaching upper low. An area of mid-level convergence and frontogenesis east of the low center still looks to affect portions of central and southern Kansas overnight, which should focus more persistent widespread rain/rain showers. Very weak elevated instability may also support isolated storms across south central Kansas. While not expected to be excessive, some decent rainfall amounts in the one-half to one inch range will be possible, mainly southwest of a Great Bend to Wichita to Coffeyville line. Rain chances will diminish/end during Friday as the upper low/trof moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Upper ridging will move over the central/northern Plains on Saturday with milder southerly flow over the area, becoming brisk over central Kansas by late afternoon. Darmofal .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 A rather progressive west-southwesterly upper flow regime will prevail across mid-America early next week. An upper trof will move across the northern Plains on Sunday with a more subtle shortwave scooting over the central Plains Monday night. These perturbations will emanate from a larger scale upper low/trof just off the West coast. Some semblance of this mean trof will move inland by mid-week. Overall, the result for Kansas will be a mild and brisk southerly flow through these periods. Low level moisture looks to increase in the prevailing southerly flow lending to perhaps modest chances for showers with a cold front by Wednesday. KED && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 542 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 * MVFR conditions likely this evening through Friday, especially central/south-central KS. IFR conditions possible * Widespread SHRA tonight. A few TSRA possible * Gusty SE winds today A storm system will emerge out of the Southern Rockies today and cross the Central/Southern Plains tonight. Increasing, and gusty, southeast winds will develop ahead of the system, gradually pulling moisture into the region. This will translate to lowering CIGs by this evening, with MVFR/low VFR CIGs expected tonight through Friday morning. SHRA should develop by this evening as well, with the greatest risk of reduced VIS along and west of I-135. For now, I left out any reduction to VIS, but this will likely be added in later forecasts. Where VIS is lowered, I expect MVFR conditions at times, with IFR VIS possible where the heaviest SHRA develop. Of note, a few TSRA will be possible this afternoon/evening, mainly across southwest KS and western sections of south-central Kansas. Low CIGs may be slow to clear out Friday. Martin
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Southeast winds will increase and become gusty this afternoon from the Flint Hills westward across central Kansas. While humidity values will not be as low today, several hours of very high fire danger is expected, mainly along and west of the Flint Hills. Rain is expected tonight and will be most widespread along and southwest of a line from Russell to Hutchinson to El Dorado to Parsons. Gusty south winds and above normal temperatures next week will result in elevated fire danger with Tuesday and Wednesday having the potential for more of a concern. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Wichita-KICT 68 45 58 36 / 10 90 40 0 Hutchinson 67 43 58 35 / 20 90 30 0 Newton 68 43 57 35 / 10 80 30 0 ElDorado 68 44 57 36 / 10 80 40 0 Winfield-KWLD 70 45 58 36 / 10 90 60 0 Russell 67 40 56 31 / 30 70 10 0 Great Bend 66 41 56 31 / 40 90 20 0 Salina 70 42 58 34 / 10 60 10 0 McPherson 68 42 57 34 / 10 80 20 0 Coffeyville 70 45 56 34 / 0 70 70 0 Chanute 70 45 56 35 / 0 50 40 0 Iola 69 45 56 34 / 0 40 30 0 Parsons-KPPF 69 45 56 34 / 0 60 60 0
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&& .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KED LONG TERM...KED AVIATION...RM FIRE WEATHER...KED

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