National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KICT 192333
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in place across
the region through Saturday while a cold front settles southward
across the Northern and into the Central Plains states. This will
result in another sultry day across the forecast area on Sat with
highs on either side of the century mark. We could see some accas
or perhaps an isolated storm or two tonight/early Saturday morning
with some wind speed convergence associated with the LLJ but
confidence remains too low to mention in the forecast at this
time.

Maintained low pops across a sliver of our central KS counties on
Saturday evening as a cold front approaches late in the period. A
subtle pv anomaly may help support a few storms, especially across
central KS but conditions become less favorable as you move
southward into south central KS where the airmass will likely
remain capped. Better chances for deep moist convection may arrive
across much of the area on Sunday, especially across southeast KS
where the airmass is progged to become quite unstable during the
afternoon & evening hours. The flow is also progged to increase
some supporting the possibility of a few severe storms through the
evening hours ahead of the frontal surge. A stable post-frontal
regime will be ushered in for the beginning of the week with highs
only reaching the low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

We`ll start the period in an unseasonably cool continental
airmass for at least the first half of next week with dry weather
and fall-like temperatures. Values will modify as we move through
the week with more seasonable values around 90 toward the latter
portion of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Breezy S to SW winds will continue for a few more hours, before
diminishing late this evening and overnight, with VFR conditions.
Expect the surface winds to pick up again near the end of the TAF
period for the afternoon hours on Sat.

Expect some LLWS overnight at most locations as winds at 2,000 ft
approach 40 kts out the southwest.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76 100  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Hutchinson      77 101  72  89 /   0  10  10  30
Newton          76  98  72  90 /   0  10  10  30
ElDorado        75  97  73  92 /   0   0  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   77  99  75  94 /   0   0  10  20
Russell         77 104  68  83 /   0  10  30  40
Great Bend      75 103  69  84 /   0  10  20  40
Salina          78 102  72  87 /   0  10  20  40
McPherson       76 100  72  87 /   0  10  10  30
Coffeyville     76  97  75  94 /   0   0   0  20
Chanute         76  96  75  92 /   0   0   0  20
Iola            75  96  75  92 /   0   0  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    76  96  75  93 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham