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000
FXUS63 KICT 070529
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1129 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 321 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

Currently have upper ridging moving out of the Rockies and
out into the High Plains. Water vapor imagery shows some upper
energy lifting out of the Central Great Basin. At the surface,
lee troughing is in place setting up return flow across the
Plains and unseasonably warm temps.

Upper impulse lifting out of the Great Basin will move into the
Northern Plains tonight into Sun with a broad area of upper
ridging expected to build back in behind. This will keep Lee
troughing and unseasonably warm temps in place Sun and will be
further enhanced for Mon as a fast moving upper perturbation moves
out of the southern Rockies and across KS.

There remains good model agreement in a more robust piece of
energy approaching the CA coast Mon night into Tue with a lead
wave moving out across the Four Corners region and into the
Central Plains by Tue afternoon/evening. This will further deepen
the lee trough Tue and keep gusty south winds and warm temps in
place. The persistent south winds and warm temps will bring
elevated fire danger risk for Sun through Tue. See fire weather
section below for additional details.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

By 12z Wed, upper low will be coming onshore over southern CA with
a northern stream wave passing over the Northern Rockies/south
central Canada. This will result in a weak cold front extending
from northeast KS into the OK Panhandle with this same feature
lingering across southeast KS for Thu. Models have slowed the
progression of this front compared to yesterday`s runs with both
the ECMWF and GFS hanging the front up across se KS thru at least
12z Fri. Strong to severe storms will be possible for the Wed
afternoon-Thu evening time frame for anywhere along or east of the
front. How widespread will depend on the quality of moisture we
get up here. ECMWF and GFS differ on how quickly the upper low
progresses east for Fri into Sat. The GFS is faster and has the
upper low over KS by Sat afternoon. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has this
same feature approaching the Four Corners region by Sat morning.
Needless to say, this feature will keep precip in the forecast for
the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the next 24hrs.
Meanwhile low level wind shear will affect central/south central
Kansas during the early morning hours. South winds will increase
by mid-late morning with stronger gusts persisting through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

Very high to extreme grassland fire danger will be in place area
wide for the Sun through Tue time frame. South winds will
increase for Sun afternoon with sustained speeds in the 20 to 30
mph range with higher gusts. These same wind conditions will be in
place each afternoon through Tue. However, relative humidity will
slowly increase each day. For Sun we are looking for RH values to
range from 25% to 35%, 30% to 40% for Mon afternoon and 30% to
50% for Tue. So the most critical fire conditions look to be for
Sun and Mon afternoon, before better moisture makes it up here.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    41  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      41  68  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          41  68  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        40  67  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   40  66  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         42  74  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      41  71  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          42  71  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       41  68  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     37  68  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         38  68  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            39  69  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    37  68  41  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...RBL