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000
FXUS63 KICT 210814
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Another mild and breezy day is anticipated across the area today
with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Breezy southerly winds may
approach advisory levels at times, especially across the Flint
Hills where the corridor of higher H85 wind speeds are progged
during the afternoon hours when the deepest mixing will occur.
We may also see an isolated evening or overnight storm, mainly
across portions of our central Kansas counties. As you move south
across south central Kansas the cap becomes more pronounced,
likely precluding deep moist convection. However, across our
central KS counties, a couple of storms may fire along the dryline
and/or the southward sagging cold front during the evening hours.
Point soundings indicate inverted-v profiles supporting some
gusty winds with any storms that manage to develop.

Monday-Tuesday...a cold front will make slow progress south and east
across the area on Monday and we could see an isolated storm
along the front during the afternoon hours across portions of
southeast KS. However, models continue to show a pronounced cap
around H7 with only marginal instability progged. Another
shortwave trough will arrive across the area late Monday night
into Tuesday, bringing more widespread showers and storms to much
of southern Kansas. With limited insolation and some low level
caa, highs will struggle to climb out of the lower 60s on Tue.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

A shortwave trough will pass south of the area on Wed-Thu with the
higher probabilities of precipitation remaining south of our area
across the Southern Plains states. As we move through the
remainder of the week, a progressive zonal flow is progged to
develop which should keep the better quality moisture south of the
area. Temperatures will slowly moderate while remaining above
normal as we move into the beginning of the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  For the
overnight hours, expect the low level jet to increase across the
region, which will lead to low level wind shear for the overnight
hours for most locations. A low pressure area will gradually move
into central KS by Sun afternoon with a dry line pushing into
portions of central KS  by Sun afternoon. There is a very slim
chance of an isolated TSRA developing along the boundary from
22z/Sun to 03z/Mon. But due to isolated nature of the chance, prefer
to not mention it in the TAFS at this time.

Ketcham


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the upcoming week,
especially in areas across south central and southeast KS that
received beneficial rainfall recently and green-up is well
underway.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    83  57  76  50 /   0  10  10  60
Hutchinson      83  55  73  47 /  10  20  10  50
Newton          82  57  73  47 /   0  20  10  50
ElDorado        83  60  76  49 /   0  10  10  50
Winfield-KWLD   82  59  77  51 /   0  10  10  70
Russell         89  52  67  43 /  10  40  10  10
Great Bend      89  51  69  44 /  10  20   0  20
Salina          85  56  72  47 /  10  40  10  20
McPherson       83  54  72  47 /  10  30  10  40
Coffeyville     83  62  77  54 /   0  10  20  50
Chanute         82  61  76  52 /   0  10  20  40
Iola            82  61  76  51 /   0  10  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    82  62  76  54 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...MWM