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000
FXUS63 KICT 241102
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
502 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Currently have a deep upper trough centered over southern
CA/northern Baja with a broad area of southwest upper flow spread
across the southern Plains. Meanwhile further north, deep Polar
upper low continues to churn over central Canada and continues to
slowly sag south. At the surface, inverted trough extends from
western IA, into central KS and finally into the TX Panhandle. This
feature separates the much colder air that is slowly spilling
south.

Drizzle continues across most of the area and is most widespread for
areas along and east of I-135. We have had some freezing drizzle
generally north of I-70 that we continue to monitor. Current
thinking is that the better low level upglide will shift east this
morning which should decrease freezing drizzle potential. However,
may see a few slick spots north of I-70 early this morning.
Confidence is high that drizzle will be the primary form of precip
today as low levels continue to saturate.

By 00z Mon, main piece of upper energy will be tracking over the
Desert Southwest/Sonora Mex and will quickly approach west TX by
early Sun evening. Precip will rapidly increase Sun evening as low
level theta-e advection continues to ramp up. For most of the area
precip should remain in liquid form early Sun evening with a
chance for a brief period of freezing rain over central KS before
turning to snow.

Confidence still remains high in significant snow totals
affecting northwest parts of the forecast area late Sun night
through Mon. The 00z GFS is wrapping slightly warmer air into the
backside of this system compared to the ECMWF, CMC and RAP. This
has resulted in the GFS nudging the higher snow totals slightly
northwest. Currently have a lean to the slightly cooler models
considering the GFS is the outlier. Models over the last 36 hours
have started to show some of the more classic heavy snow features
such as a TROWAL, mid level frontogenesis along with the
potential for slantwise instability. This continues to lead to
high confidence in snow amounts in the heavier band more than 6
inches.

After coordinating with surrounding offices, have agreed to put the
counties we have the highest confidence in heavy snow into a warning
and leave the watch for areas that may still reach warning criteria
if the 12z guidance comes in slightly colder. Still looking like
the heaviest snow will occur in the 12z-18z time frame Mon. While
it`s not out of the question to see a sleet/freezing rain mix in
a narrow transition area, feel confident that majority of the
precip will be rain or snow. Precip is expected to diminish to
just a few flurries over northern KS by Mon evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Pattern will remain progressive with yet another impulse expected to
lift out of the Desert Southwest and across TX Panhandle/OK Tue
night into Wed morning. While snow amounts with this system look
significantly less than the one on Mon, it`s still not out of the
question some locations may see light accumulations. This wave
will be moving into the Tennessee Valley Wed night leaving upper
ridging in place across the Plains to finish out the work week.
This will bring a warm-up with highs in the 50s for Fri into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 501 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

* Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions tonight
* Widespread precipitation tonight/MON
* Accumulating SN to impact RSL/SLN/GBD/HUT tonight/MON
* TSRA possible tonight (SE KS)

A cold front will continue to push southeast across eastern/southern
KS this morning, then stall to the south over Oklahoma. DZ and low
CIGs will impact airports ahead of the front for another few hours,
followed by rising VIS/CIGs behind the front. A brief period of
gusty, north winds will occur just behind the front. CIGS will
likely rise into the MVFR category for awhile today before falling
back down this evening/tonight. Later tonight into Monday,
widespread low CIGs and precipitation will develop across the entire
state. Western and northern KS will see accumulating snow, will
south- central and southeast KS see mostly RA, and possibly a few
TSRA. Where snow occurs, accumulations of 5-10" are expected for
KRSL/KSLN/KGBD. Further south near KHUT/KEWK, accumulations are
possible, but confidence is lower.

EXTENDED PLANNING OUTLOOK: Low CIGs may linger well beyond the
current TAF cycle, possible all the way into the middle of the week.
Another round of wintry precipitation is possible TUE/WED.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    40  33  41  21 /  30  90  60   0
Hutchinson      38  29  36  18 /  20  90  80  10
Newton          38  31  38  19 /  40  90  70   0
ElDorado        42  34  42  22 /  40  90  60   0
Winfield-KWLD   47  37  46  24 /  40 100  50   0
Russell         35  25  28  13 /  10 100  90  30
Great Bend      36  25  30  14 /  10 100 100  10
Salina          36  27  33  16 /  20 100 100  20
McPherson       37  27  35  16 /  20  90  90  10
Coffeyville     53  42  54  26 /  30 100  40   0
Chanute         46  39  50  25 /  30 100  50   0
Iola            45  37  48  24 /  30 100  50   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  41  52  26 /  30 100  50   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday
for KSZ052-067-068.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon
for KSZ047>051.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday
for KSZ032-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...RM