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000
FXUS63 KICT 210251
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
951 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 445 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

There are two main troughs noticed over the CONUS. One trough is
centered over Ontario/Quebec with the main trough of interest near
the Four Corners into the Great Basin. Showers and thunderstorms
have persisted for much of the day across south central and
southeast Kansas into Oklahoma. Flooding has begun in south central
and southeast Kansas. Recent reports suggest flash flooding is
occurring in both locations with the amount of rainfall that has
fell over already wet soils. This threat will only increase with
additional rainfall.

Severe weather is occurring along the intersection of a warm front
and dryline which is positioned across Oklahoma. The dryline
stretches through the Texas Panhandle. Severe storms and
tornadoes have already developed and are expected for the Texas
Panhandle into Oklahoma. There is a high risk for the mentioned
location. It is imperative if you have family in that area to make
sure that they heed any warnings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Highlights:
1) Flooding/Flash Flooding tonight-Tuesday

2) Possible strong to severe storms this evening/tonight

3) Gusty winds on Tuesday

The real concerns for this part of the forecast are this evening
into Tuesday as the area continues to be inundated with
thunderstorms. A negatively titled trough is positioned from western
Canada to the Great Basin to the Four Corners. This trough will push
its way to the east and northeast tonight. Moisture advection
continues to pool into the southern and central plains. An increase
in this moisture advection will occur this evening into tonight and
persist into early Tuesday. Thunderstorms with heavy rain are
expected to continue into the first half of Tuesday. Currently an
additional three to six inches is forecast to fall in south
central and southeast Kansas. Convective activity suggests that
locally higher amounts are likely, and these amounts are simply
an approximate value. The Weather Prediction Center has adjusted
their outlook to bring their high risk of excessive rainfall into
southeast Kansas and along the border with much of the rest of the
eastern half of Kansas staying in a moderate risk. Please see the
Hydrology section for additional information.

The Mesoscale Discussion above describes the potential for severe
weather this evening. If the warm front moves further to the north,
this could pose a severe threat to the southern portions of Kansas
with the possibility of golf ball sized hail and winds up to 65 mph.
Severe thunderstorms very well could move into south central and
southeast Kansas with the activity in Oklahoma. Therefore it is
important to pay attention to this threat as well.

As the trough keeps progressing northeast, it will deepen on Tuesday
as it moves into the Plains. In addition to the flooding threat, a
tightened gradient could lead to stronger winds with the possibility
of approaching Wind Advisory criteria in the afternoon. BUFKIT
soundings show momentum transfer up to 50kts on multiple models.
Current forecasted winds are flirting with advisory criteria. If
stronger winds and respective gusts do occur, it cannot be ruled out
to have some tree damage given the soft soils with as much rain is
anticipated between now and then.

Another thing to consider is the possibility for a cold core tornado
or even severe storms with the tightening system, strong forcing and
0-6km bulk shear of 60-85kts during the afternoon hours. While the
multiple rounds of thunderstorms will definitely impact the
environment, it is at least worth a mention at this time. The main
concern for Tuesday remains to be the flooding threat which will
continue.

A secondary trough is quick on its heels and will stay over the
Great Basin. There is a window of dry weather on Tuesday evening
through Wednesday afternoon/evening when another wave moves across.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms return with continued river
flooding and potentially county areal flood warnings. This would
definitely not help those situations. Strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible, but the bulk of any of that activity will stay off to
the west and north.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Words for this part of the forecast: wet and humid

Highlights:

1) Additional chances of showers and thunderstorms with possible
severe storms on Thursday
2) Continued flooding

The trough over the Great Basin will move from the Front Range to
the Northern Plains on Thursday. There is a return of possibly
strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday. A portion of this wave
moves to the Northern Plains on Friday with the GFS showing a more
wrapped up system while the ECMWF does not indicate the same. This
can be dived into in the coming days as the short term was certainly
a focus at this time.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms are in for essentially the
entirety of the forecast from Wednesday onward. Another wave is
forecast to move across on Saturday with another trough on
Monday/Tuesday. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms only aggravate
the flooding. A water filled and muddy mess will undoubtedly occur
into next week. It may be worth it to invest in some rain boots
if you haven`t already. Temperatures around 80 degrees combined
with the moisture will keep it quite steamy and humid similar to
if you were living along the Gulf Coast. Adjustments to the
chances for precipitation field were made during this time frame
and are anticipated in the coming days as well.

Please stay tuned for updates on this part of the forecast which
will get better attention in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 726 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Low clouds and some fog may expand across central Kansas this
evening and tonight while numerous showers/storms impact portions
of south central and southeast KS. Meanwhile MVFR cigs will begin
to develop over south central KS and expand into southeast Kansas
by tonight. IFR/LIFR cigs will linger through tonight north of
warm front with widespread showers/storms. We may seem another
round of showers and thunderstorms after 08-09Z as the storm
system lifts north and east across the area. There is some concern
that with some breaks in the clouds we could see more
thunderstorms develop under the mid/upper trough as it lifts out
acrosss the area on Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 445 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Highlights:

Flash Flood Watch continues - Be ready for Flash Flood
Warnings

River and county flood warnings have been issued

Rounds of thunderstorms have dropped one to two inches of rainfall
already which will only persist into Tuesday. An additional three to
six inches is possible through Tuesday which will certainly result
in flooding. A range of flooding (areal, flash and river) is
expected and occurring. Flash flooding has already been reported
and will remain likely this evening especially in metro locations.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. You do not know how deep
the water is over that roadway, and the road may have washed away.
It is vital to heed any road closures. Twelve inches of flowing
water over a roadway can lead to vehicles floating away. Remember
you are not just putting yourself and your passengers at risk but
also the first responders who need to rescue you.

Throughout this forecast, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
which will only continue the flooding that develops tonight through
Tuesday. Rivers are anticipated to stay in flood through much of the
forecast at least at this juncture given the potential for all of
this additional water. Please make sure to check the latest county,
river and of course flash flood warnings for additional information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    55  75  54  79 / 100  80  10  10
Hutchinson      53  73  50  78 / 100  80  20  10
Newton          56  73  52  78 / 100  80  10  10
ElDorado        55  74  55  79 / 100  90  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   62  76  57  80 / 100  80  10  20
Russell         47  72  43  75 /  90  80  20   0
Great Bend      51  73  44  77 /  90  70  20   0
Salina          51  73  47  77 / 100  80  20  10
McPherson       53  73  50  77 / 100  80  20  10
Coffeyville     66  75  60  84 / 100  90  10  20
Chanute         62  75  59  82 /  90  90  10  20
Iola            61  74  58  81 /  90  90  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    64  75  59  83 / 100  90  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ068>070-083-
092>094-098.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...MWM
HYDROLOGY...VJP