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448
FXUS63 KICT 120738
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
238 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Below normal temperatures are expected for much of the area today
  with highs in the mid and upper 80s.

- Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms will linger through the
  upcoming week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A shortwave trough over the Central High Plains during the overnight
hours is progged to rotate slowly eastward into the Southern and
portions of the Central Plains as we move through the day today.
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in southwest Kansas
extending SSE into northwest OK with some uncertainty as we move
into central KS. The cams continue to show a rapid demise of the
High Plains MCS as it rolls eastward during the predawn hours with
little large-scale support for redevelopment evident. As we
move into the early afternoon hours, the cap is progged to
weaken with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
impacting southern Kansas through the afternoon and evening
hours as the mid/upper trough rotates over the area. Better
support for strong or severe storms is expected to remain south
of the area although a rogue strong storm or two may produce
some marginally strong wind gusts or small hail in addition to
pockets of heavy rain. Limited afternoon insolation and a post-
frontal regime will keep highs below normal over the region
today with values topping out in the mid and upper 80s for many
areas. Some showers and isolated storms may linger over portions
of south central and much of southeast KS tonight but strong or
severe storms are not anticipated.

A weakness in the subtropical ridge will remain over the Southern
and portions of the Central Plains as we move into Sun-Tue with a
buoyant and weakly capped airmass leading to afternoon showers and
storms through the period with the better chances lingering across
southeast KS during the afternoon hours. Below normal highs will
persist through Tue while gradually climbing back into the lower 90s
as head towards the middle of the week. A shortwave trough moving
eastward over the Northern Plains by midweek is expected to bring
breezy conditions to the area Tue-Wed as the sfc low deepens
across the High Plains keeping some diurnal pops in the
forecast.

Thu-Fri...A frontal boundary sagging into the Central Plains on Thu
could be a focus for showers and storms in central KS but confidence
in where the boundary will set up remains fairly low at this time.
We may finally start to see a break in the action late in the week
but forecast condifence remains fairly low.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions generally expected to prevail over the next 24
hours, but can`t rule out an isolated storm impacting a TAF site
over the next day or so.

Currently, showers and storms have cleared southeast Kansas, and
VFR conditions have resumed at KCNU and surrounding points. Eyes
are now monitoring portions of western Kansas and southwest
Nebraska where a couple complexes of thunderstorms could throw a
wrench in the forecast today if they continue to maintain
themselves through the overnight period. The current expectation
is for these thunderstorms to slowly dissipate overnight before
moving into the forecast area, but we will have to monitor
their progression early this morning to see if this pans out.
Should these storms hold together, sites like KRSL and KGBD may
see adverse conditions by daybreak.

Additionally, isolated showers and storms are possible across
southern and southeast Kansas this afternoon. However, the
better chances should be along the KS/OK stateline.

Winds today are expected to be light and generally out of the
north and northeast over the next 24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JC