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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
350
FXUS62 KILM 190001
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion...cor
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
755 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave of low pressure will bring a few early morning showers
to the area. A weak warm front will bring light rain chances near
the coast early Wednesday morning. A dry cold front will cross the
area late Wednesday, with cool and dry high pressure moving in
Thursday and Friday. A storm system will approach from the Gulf
Coast states on Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Looks like a chance of early morning showers followed by
isolated showers dotting the area in afternoon as April sun
works with dwindling moisture, coverage looks wider in morning
than afternoon, and will fine-tune pop distribution to reflect.
An afternoon downslope wind-flow should ensure mild to warm
afternoon temperatures, while hindering updrafts somewhat in
peak heating and a drying trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A dry environment in place along with help from a subsidence
inversion aloft is making shower development difficult over this
area. Therefore, expect most folks in our ares to remain rain-
free this evening as a weak wave of low pressure continues to
move offshore. Overnight lows will stay in the upper 50s with
increasing cloud cover out of the south due to the proximity of
the aforementioned disturbance. More defined and well-organized
shortwave will approach the area on Monday. We will still be
stuck in a dry environment with a significant subsidence
inversion around 700 mb. In addition, dry air advection above
the inversion will likely limit shower chances after Monday
morning. Will keep the mention of a few low-topped showers
possible due to such a potent energy center traversing northern
NC and southern VA, but the best chance looks to be earlier in
the day. High temperatures will jump into the upper 70s to near
80 with skies clearing during the afternoon. Good radiational
cooling and dry surface layer will allow overnight temperatures
to drop into the upper 40s to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak sfc low pressure passes well off to the S on Tue, and
included just low end PoPs over SE areas mainly for the Tue
night period where mid-level shortwave energy will be
strongest. Any precip will be light, and kept thunder out of the
forecast at this point. Temps will be near normal for late
April...highs in the low 70s along the coast, with mid/upr 70s
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong cold front crosses the area late Wed, and maintained
previous thinking that moisture will be quite lacking so expect
the front to pass by dry with only a few clouds. Breezy SW flow
becomes NW behind the front Wed night, remaining gusty at
times. With this setup, bumped up low temps Wed night a bit as
guidance often has a low bias with temps when winds stay
elevated overnight. The CAA weakens into Thu and Fri as sfc
high pressure moves through the area, with temps about 5-10
degrees below normal both days. Next chance of rain arrives over
the weekend. The 12Z GFS has a much stronger southern stream
system than the ECMWF, but they both show a good chance of rain
over the weekend regardless so bumped up PoPs to 50-60% Sat/Sat
night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR until 8-9z, when patchy MVFR ceilings, fog, and scattered
showers affect the area. In general, a drying trend aft 13z is
expected as low pressure pulls offshore and away from the area.
Isolated afternoon VFR showers mainly between 20z and 23z.
Light wind overnight, becoming W Monday, then NW-N 8-11 knots
at end of TAF cycle as the low pulls away from Cape Fear

Extended Outlook...VFR, with occasional middle and high clouds
as several weak waves traverse the region. A moderately strong
cold front Wednesday night may bring restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday Night:
Winds remain light and variable this evening as a weak surface
low continues to move offshore. SC coastal waters could see a
brief enhancement of the gradient as the low pulls away from the
coastline, therefore expect southerly winds around 10 knots. A
weak boundary will push through the area tomorrow afternoon,
bringing southerly winds to a northerly direction; still
remaining around or less than 10 knots through Tuesday morning.
Seas generally 2-3 feet.

Tuesday Through Friday:
Weak sfc high pressure passes offshore on Tue, with SE flow in
its wake up to 10-15 kt over the coastal waters. SW winds then
increase through the day Wed as the pressure gradient increases
ahead of an approaching cold front. Following the cold fropa Wed
evening, CAA appears moderate so SCA conditions are likely, and
bumped up wind speeds a bit above guidance. Seas only make it to
around 5 ft, but gusts up to 30 kt are possible. Improving
marine conditions then for Thu and Fri as sfc high pressure
passes through the area.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...8
MARINE...MAS/21