Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 050451 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1151 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front overnight will bring cooler air across the Carolinas Friday into the weekend, while low pressure passes south of the area with a few clouds on Saturday. Dry weather will continue through much of next week with a noticeable warm-up into mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry wx will continue through the entire Near Term Period. A dry, weak front drops through the area around midnight tonight with NW winds shifting to the N. Even with a little bit of wind, a clear sky will still allow temps to fall into the mid/upr 30s, slightly below normal for early March. Weak low-level CAA continues behind the front for Fri, leading to temps only maxing out in the mid 50s most areas under a mostly sunny sky. Some increasing clouds then for Fri night as moisture increases in the WSW flow aloft, but low and mid levels are well too dry for any precip. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An already highly amplified trough will deepen further through the period. Low pressure will develop as a result well offshore, far enough to preclude any rain chances. Cold advection will be fostered by the setup however keeping both daytime highs and nighttime lows some 10 degrees below climatology despite ample sunshine. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Strong mid level trough will be off the coast by the start of the period allowing for building heights from the west while at the surface high pressure remains overhead to inhibit mixing leading to one last cool day. High moves off the coast Tuesday but not by much. Even so, a little bit of the low level warm advection should make it to the surface for a more seasonable afternoon. This setup is relatively unchanged as we round out the period. Each afternoon will tack on a few degrees from the previous and a few low level diurnally formed cumulus clouds will start dotting the sky. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Extended Outlook...Low pressure to the south may bring clouds late tonight into Saturday, but ceilings should remain VFR with no aviation impacts.
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&& .MARINE... Through Friday Night: Sub-SCA conditions continue over the next several days as sfc high pressure gradually builds in from the NW. A weak front drops through the waters tonight, with weak CAA allowing for occasional gusts to 25 kt but mainly up to 20 kt. Winds then just 10-15 kt for Fri/Fri night as the high moves closer to the area. Seas consistently 2-4 ft during this timeframe, with the 4 footers mainly just following the fropa late tonight into Fri morning. Saturday through Tuesday... Northerly winds abate quickly on Saturday as high pressure moves in from the north. A small southward push of this high will allow the still northerly winds to increase back to more typical speeds. The offshore fetch meanwhile will preclude any significant building of wave heights. The lightest winds of the period then slated for Monday as the center of the high arrives. Its gradual progress offshore on Tuesday to veer winds to the SE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NCZ107. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...TRA MARINE...ILM

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