Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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350 FXUS62 KILM 190001 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion...cor National Weather Service Wilmington NC 755 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak wave of low pressure will bring a few early morning showers to the area. A weak warm front will bring light rain chances near the coast early Wednesday morning. A dry cold front will cross the area late Wednesday, with cool and dry high pressure moving in Thursday and Friday. A storm system will approach from the Gulf Coast states on Saturday. && .UPDATE... Looks like a chance of early morning showers followed by isolated showers dotting the area in afternoon as April sun works with dwindling moisture, coverage looks wider in morning than afternoon, and will fine-tune pop distribution to reflect. An afternoon downslope wind-flow should ensure mild to warm afternoon temperatures, while hindering updrafts somewhat in peak heating and a drying trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A dry environment in place along with help from a subsidence inversion aloft is making shower development difficult over this area. Therefore, expect most folks in our ares to remain rain- free this evening as a weak wave of low pressure continues to move offshore. Overnight lows will stay in the upper 50s with increasing cloud cover out of the south due to the proximity of the aforementioned disturbance. More defined and well-organized shortwave will approach the area on Monday. We will still be stuck in a dry environment with a significant subsidence inversion around 700 mb. In addition, dry air advection above the inversion will likely limit shower chances after Monday morning. Will keep the mention of a few low-topped showers possible due to such a potent energy center traversing northern NC and southern VA, but the best chance looks to be earlier in the day. High temperatures will jump into the upper 70s to near 80 with skies clearing during the afternoon. Good radiational cooling and dry surface layer will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak sfc low pressure passes well off to the S on Tue, and included just low end PoPs over SE areas mainly for the Tue night period where mid-level shortwave energy will be strongest. Any precip will be light, and kept thunder out of the forecast at this point. Temps will be near normal for late April...highs in the low 70s along the coast, with mid/upr 70s inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A strong cold front crosses the area late Wed, and maintained previous thinking that moisture will be quite lacking so expect the front to pass by dry with only a few clouds. Breezy SW flow becomes NW behind the front Wed night, remaining gusty at times. With this setup, bumped up low temps Wed night a bit as guidance often has a low bias with temps when winds stay elevated overnight. The CAA weakens into Thu and Fri as sfc high pressure moves through the area, with temps about 5-10 degrees below normal both days. Next chance of rain arrives over the weekend. The 12Z GFS has a much stronger southern stream system than the ECMWF, but they both show a good chance of rain over the weekend regardless so bumped up PoPs to 50-60% Sat/Sat night. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR until 8-9z, when patchy MVFR ceilings, fog, and scattered showers affect the area. In general, a drying trend aft 13z is expected as low pressure pulls offshore and away from the area. Isolated afternoon VFR showers mainly between 20z and 23z. Light wind overnight, becoming W Monday, then NW-N 8-11 knots at end of TAF cycle as the low pulls away from Cape Fear Extended Outlook...VFR, with occasional middle and high clouds as several weak waves traverse the region. A moderately strong cold front Wednesday night may bring restrictions. && .MARINE... Through Monday Night: Winds remain light and variable this evening as a weak surface low continues to move offshore. SC coastal waters could see a brief enhancement of the gradient as the low pulls away from the coastline, therefore expect southerly winds around 10 knots. A weak boundary will push through the area tomorrow afternoon, bringing southerly winds to a northerly direction; still remaining around or less than 10 knots through Tuesday morning. Seas generally 2-3 feet. Tuesday Through Friday: Weak sfc high pressure passes offshore on Tue, with SE flow in its wake up to 10-15 kt over the coastal waters. SW winds then increase through the day Wed as the pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Following the cold fropa Wed evening, CAA appears moderate so SCA conditions are likely, and bumped up wind speeds a bit above guidance. Seas only make it to around 5 ft, but gusts up to 30 kt are possible. Improving marine conditions then for Thu and Fri as sfc high pressure passes through the area. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJC NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...8 MARINE...MAS/21

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