Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 020932 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 432 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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A stalled front will remain south of the area thru tonight. The end result will be cloudy and raw conditions with occasional light rain thru today. A more potent system will affect the area tonight into Fri morning with a widespread soaking rain followed by a reinforcing shot of cold air during Fri. Dry high pressure and cold conditions will occur Fri night thru Sat night. The next dry cold frontal passage will occur Sun night followed by high pressure building in from the west early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Stalled front to remain south of the area during this period. Being on the north side of it, means cool/cold raw weather conditions thru the period. Overrunning light rain and drizzle to dominate today, mainly along and north of a line extending from Wilmington to Kingstree. Will still observe pcpn south of the line but only a trace to a couple hundredths. Overall today`s 12 hr QPF to range from a trace southernmost portions to one-quarter of an inch northernmost portions. A positively tilted mid-level s/w trof will swing and approach from the northwest tonight, forcing the band of overrunning pcpn to sink southward and affect the entire FA. Looking at light to moderate rains to occur over the entire CWA with a 12 hr QPF tonight ranging from 0.40 to 0.80 inches, the hier amounts well inland. Todays highs will run 10 to 20 degrees below normal, with the southernmost portions possibly running less than 10 degrees below normal. Temps tonight will only drop 5 to 10 degrees from todays maxes, thus keeping the diurnal range likely less than 10 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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NVA and cold/dry advection will bring clear skies and well-below normal lows as a modified arctic air mass grazes our area this weekend. Friday night lows in the low-mid 20s away from the coast in tandem with sustained winds around 5-10 mph will bring wind chills down into the low-mid 10s early Saturday morning. 850mb temperatures holding near or below 0C on Saturday will keep high temperatures in the 40s despite plenty of sunshine. On Saturday night, the main arctic high moves offshore, turning winds onshore while a coastal trough develops just offshore. Increasing high cloud cover ahead of a shortwave tracking across the Mississippi Valley along with increasing low cloud cover in return flow around the weakening high will help to keep temperatures from crashing. Low temps should occur early in the night before increasing clouds keep temps generally steady.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The aforementioned shortwave trough draws near on Sunday, maintaining mostly cloudy skies and enhancing warm/moist advection off the Atlantic. Model differences persist with the handling of developing low pressure offshore. However, most ensemble guidance keeps any meaningful precip just off our coastline. High temps rebound on Sunday into the 50s inland and low 60s near the coast as onshore flow temporarily strengthens ahead of a weak cold front. The main shortwave passes to our north Sunday night with mid-level impulses also swinging through. Winds turn westerly overnight as a dry cold front pushes through and shoves the coastal trough away. Dry high pressure builds back in for Monday through Wednesday with 500mb ridging rapidly building eastward. Temperatures respond to increasing 1000-500mb thicknesses with highs rising into the low-mid 60s on Monday and mid-upper 60s on Tuesday. A sharpening shortwave over the southwest US should help to further amplify the ridge over the Southeast, yielding even warmer temperatures on Wednesday potentially into the low 70s, which is 10-15 deg above normal. High cloud cover emanating from the shortwave may somewhat limit temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it is much too early to determine any specifics at this time.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR/IFR ceilings across all terminals at the start of this period. This will transition to mainly IFR dominate during the pre-dawn Thu hrs, which will remain-so for the remainder of this 24 hr period. Could even observe occasional LIFR ceilings Thu into Thu evening. Stalled front south of the area will result in overrunning low clouds and occasional pcpn, ie mainly R-. Fog will also be an issue but at this time have held reduced vsbys in check from the fog, mainly due to the pcpn. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions in cigs and rain will continue early Fri followed by residual low ceilings until a CFP midday Fri. Sfc high pressure and dry weather to dominate late Fri thru Sat night. A coastal trof with MVFR conditions may affect the coastal terminals Sun. The next CFP, albeit dry, slated for Sun night followed by high pressure Mon. && .MARINE...
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Through Tonight... Very borderline SCA thresholds to be met early this morning, via seas, from Cape Fear northward. Ongoing Trend will be a subsiding 1 thru tonight. Winds generally NE backing to NNE around 15 kt this morning, 10-15 kt this aftn. Looking at N around 10 kt this evening increasing to 10-20 kt towards daybreak as the gradient tightens. Models don`t really depict a main sfc low moving along the stalled front situated south and east of the waters this period. And therefore, didn`t further increase the winds or have any major directional changes. Being a primary offshore wind toward Fri daybreak, seas only build- some, mainly across AMZ250 and AMZ256 where the winds are oriented parallel to the coastline configuration, thus a better fetch. Friday through Monday... Waves of low pressure riding along the stalled front to our south along with deepening trough aloft will produce increasing winds and seas as well as widespread steady rain on Friday. Seas increase rapidly on Friday as northerly winds increase up to 15 to 20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Seas will increase up to 4 to 6 ft Friday night as winds further increase to 20-25 kts and gradually veer to the NE. Winds will weaken and seas will gradually subside from Saturday afternoon onward as high pressure moves across the Carolinas and then offshore by Saturday night. On Saturday night and Sunday, a developing coastal trough and offshore low pressure should produce increase onshore flow. Therefore, seas dropping down to 2 to 4 ft Saturday night will increase again on Sunday due to increasing onshore flow. High pressure building in from the west and a decreasing pressure gradient will causes winds to shift to offshore on Sunday night and decrease to below 15 kts with seas in the 3-5 ft range due to a southeasterly 8-9 second swell. Northerly flow settles in for Monday with speeds around 10 kts and seas remaining 3-5 ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...ABW LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/ABW

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