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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 020932
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
432 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stalled front will remain south of the area thru tonight. The
end result will be cloudy and raw conditions with occasional
light rain thru today. A more potent system will affect the area
tonight into Fri morning with a widespread soaking rain
followed by a reinforcing shot of cold air during Fri. Dry high
pressure and cold conditions will occur Fri night thru Sat
night. The next dry cold frontal passage will occur Sun night
followed by high pressure building in from the west early next
week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Stalled front to remain south of the area during this period.
Being on the north side of it, means cool/cold raw weather
conditions thru the period. Overrunning light rain and drizzle
to dominate today, mainly along and north of a line extending
from Wilmington to Kingstree. Will still observe pcpn south of
the line but only a trace to a couple hundredths. Overall
today`s 12 hr QPF to range from a trace southernmost portions
to one-quarter of an inch northernmost portions. A positively
tilted mid-level s/w trof will swing and approach from the
northwest tonight, forcing the band of overrunning pcpn to sink
southward and affect the entire FA. Looking at light to moderate
rains to occur over the entire CWA with a 12 hr QPF tonight
ranging from 0.40 to 0.80 inches, the hier amounts well inland.
Todays highs will run 10 to 20 degrees below normal, with the
southernmost portions possibly running less than 10 degrees
below normal. Temps tonight will only drop 5 to 10 degrees from
todays maxes, thus keeping the diurnal range likely less than
10 degrees.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NVA and cold/dry advection will bring clear skies and well-below
normal lows as a modified arctic air mass grazes our area this
weekend. Friday night lows in the low-mid 20s away from the
coast in tandem with sustained winds around 5-10 mph will bring
wind chills down into the low-mid 10s early Saturday morning.
850mb temperatures holding near or below 0C on Saturday will
keep high temperatures in the 40s despite plenty of sunshine.

On Saturday night, the main arctic high moves offshore, turning
winds onshore while a coastal trough develops just offshore.
Increasing high cloud cover ahead of a shortwave tracking across
the Mississippi Valley along with increasing low cloud cover in
return flow around the weakening high will help to keep
temperatures from crashing. Low temps should occur early in the
night before increasing clouds keep temps generally steady.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The aforementioned shortwave trough draws near on Sunday,
maintaining mostly cloudy skies and enhancing warm/moist
advection off the Atlantic. Model differences persist with
the handling of developing low pressure offshore. However, most
ensemble guidance keeps any meaningful precip just off our
coastline. High temps rebound on Sunday into the 50s inland and
low 60s near the coast as onshore flow temporarily strengthens
ahead of a weak cold front. The main shortwave passes to our
north Sunday night with mid-level impulses also swinging
through. Winds turn westerly overnight as a dry cold front
pushes through and shoves the coastal trough away.

Dry high pressure builds back in for Monday through Wednesday
with 500mb ridging rapidly building eastward. Temperatures
respond to increasing 1000-500mb thicknesses with highs rising
into the low-mid 60s on Monday and mid-upper 60s on Tuesday. A
sharpening shortwave over the southwest US should help to
further amplify the ridge over the Southeast, yielding even
warmer temperatures on Wednesday potentially into the low 70s,
which is 10-15 deg above normal. High cloud cover emanating from
the shortwave may somewhat limit temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday, but it is much too early to determine any specifics
at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/IFR ceilings across all terminals at the start of this
period. This will transition to mainly IFR dominate during the
pre-dawn Thu hrs, which will remain-so for the remainder of this
24 hr period. Could even observe occasional LIFR ceilings Thu
into Thu evening. Stalled front south of the area will result in
overrunning low clouds and occasional pcpn, ie mainly R-. Fog
will also be an issue but at this time have held reduced vsbys
in check from the fog, mainly due to the pcpn.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions in cigs and rain will
continue early Fri followed by residual low ceilings until a CFP
midday Fri. Sfc high pressure and dry weather to dominate late
Fri thru Sat night. A coastal trof with MVFR conditions may
affect the coastal terminals Sun. The next CFP, albeit dry,
slated for Sun night followed by high pressure Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tonight...
Very borderline SCA thresholds to be met early this morning,
via seas, from Cape Fear northward. Ongoing Trend will be a
subsiding 1 thru tonight. Winds generally NE backing to NNE
around 15 kt this morning, 10-15 kt this aftn. Looking at N
around 10 kt this evening increasing to 10-20 kt towards
daybreak as the gradient tightens. Models don`t really depict a
main sfc low moving along the stalled front situated south and
east of the waters this period. And therefore, didn`t further
increase the winds or have any major directional changes. Being
a primary offshore wind toward Fri daybreak, seas only build-
some, mainly across AMZ250 and AMZ256 where the winds are
oriented parallel to the coastline configuration, thus a better
fetch.

Friday through Monday...
Waves of low pressure riding along the stalled front to our
south along with deepening trough aloft will produce increasing
winds and seas as well as widespread steady rain on Friday. Seas
increase rapidly on Friday as northerly winds increase up to 15
to 20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Seas will increase up to 4
to 6 ft Friday night as winds further increase to 20-25 kts and
gradually veer to the NE. Winds will weaken and seas will
gradually subside from Saturday afternoon onward as high
pressure moves across the Carolinas and then offshore by
Saturday night. On Saturday night and Sunday, a developing
coastal trough and offshore low pressure should produce increase
onshore flow. Therefore, seas dropping down to 2 to 4 ft
Saturday night will increase again on Sunday due to increasing
onshore flow. High pressure building in from the west and a
decreasing pressure gradient will causes winds to shift to
offshore on Sunday night and decrease to below 15 kts with seas
in the 3-5 ft range due to a southeasterly 8-9 second swell.
Northerly flow settles in for Monday with speeds around 10 kts
and seas remaining 3-5 ft.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/ABW