Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211927 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 327 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous by the middle of the week as a cold front sags into the area from the north before slowly dissipating Friday. The upcoming holiday weekend looks unsettled as a tropical airmass brings the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms and possibly more heavy rain.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...The deep tropical moisture plume responsible for at many days of clouds and wet weather has temporarily shifted westward, leaving the eastern Carolinas with just some scattered showers today along the seabreeze front. The upper level ridge supporting the Bermuda high offshore is responsible for allowing the drier mid level air to advect across the area from the southeast. Models show deeper moisture may start to return as soon as late tomorrow afternoon across the Pee Dee region of South Carolina as a trough moving across the Great Lakes knocks upper level heights down and allows a westerly veering of the 700-500 mb flow to develop. Today`s scattered showers should die away this evening from south to north as the core of the drier mid-level airmass advects onshore. Model-computed precipitable water values fall to 1.0 to 1.2 inches tonight, a far cry from the 2.0 inch values we had over the weekend. PW could return to 1.5 to 1.7 inches tomorrow afternoon along I-95, and a chance of showers is back in the forecast accordingly. Lows tonight should range from the upper 60s inland to around 70 on the beaches. Some fog could even develop late tonight as winds become light. GFS MOS has been running consistently too warm for highs, so our forecast for Tuesday is much closer to a NAM/ECMWF consensus: mid 80s inland with lower 80s near the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...A northwest flow will be in place by the end of the period after a transition from somewhat weak ridging. This flow will allow a weak backdoor cold front to move across the area at least briefly. Precipitable water values will have recovered nicely especially by Wednesday afternoon and with good sea breeze convergence and some distant forcing from the approaching front likely pops remain in place. For overnight Tuesday and Wednesday there will be a smattering of activity as well. Essentially no changes to the temperature forecast.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...A brief break in the pattern is forecast Thu into early Fri as a mid-level trough digs into New England driving a surface cold front into the area. This front will stall over the area Thursday and dissipate into Friday. While scattered showers and storms will remain possible Thu and Friday, it is possible that northern areas of the FA will get a break from the showers and storms and may see a little lower humidity for about 24 hours. As southerly flow returns to the area Friday into the weekend, shower and storm chances will ramp back up again for the holiday weekend. Temperatures through the extended range will remain in the lower to middle 80s by day and upper 60s to lower 70s at night.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 18Z...Early this afternoon convergence associated with the sea breeze boundary as it pushes inland will produce tempo low VFR cigs along with SHRA/TSRA mainly near KILM. Showers much more isolated at KCRE/KMYR where airmass is drier. Low VFR cigs along SHRA/TSRA inland terminals mid to late afternoon as the sea breeze pushes farther inland. Convection should wane around 00Z with loss of heating. However an outflow from stronger convection to the north could affect KLBT/KILM mid-late evening with shifting winds, along with VCSH KLBT late evening. Fog expected overnight with MVFR coastal terminals and IFR/LIFR inland terminals. Any fog should lift Tuesday shortly after sunrise with VFR expected. Extended Outlook...MVFR and possibly IFR conditions will increase late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front drops across the area. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Bermuda high pressure well offshore is extending a ridge axis westward toward the South Carolina coast. A front stalled across the North Carolina/Virginia border should move north and farther away from the Carolinas tomorrow, allowing modest southwesterly winds to continue. Isolated showers should end quickly this afternoon as the seabreeze moves inland from the coast, but isolated showers are possible again Tuesday morning into the early afternoon hours. Although there is certainly a small wind wave out there, the majority of our wave energy is due to an 8-second southeasterly swell measured at 4 feet at Frying Pan Shoals buoy. This swell should continue into Tuesday. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...For the most part a south to southwest flow of 10-15 knots will continue across the waters. There is a wind shift very late in the period to a weak offshore flow via a front or what is probably an outflow pushing offshore. As usual this time of year the push will be rather weak and fleeting. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front will briefly turn winds to the W/NW Thu before the gradient eases considerably as the front wavers and then dissipates across the area into Fri. This brings a period of light and variable winds Thu before E-SE winds develop late Thu into Fri with a turn to the south Saturday. Winds look to be 15 KT or less with seas of 2 to 3 feet through the period.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...31 AVIATION...MRR

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