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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 161400
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1000 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to unseasonably warm and quiet weather
through midweek. A series of weak disturbances bring only a
slight chance of showers towards later in the week. Rain chances
may start to increase later in the weekend, with temperatures
gradually starting to fall.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to the forecast with the mid morning update.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another unseasonably warm day in store for today with high temps in
the upper 80s. A weak front looks to drop down from the north later
this morning, stalling across southeast NC before returning north
tonight. Latest CAMs and hi-res guidance highlight a window of CAPE
500-1000 J/kg along the front late afternoon into early evening.
Combined with an approaching 500mb weak shortwave, there is a chance
for a stray thunderstorm to move across far northern parts of the
CWA. Main hindrance to convective development is a decent mid level
ridge nearby, with stronger subsidence to the south and offshore.
Therefore have capped pops at 15-20%, with any weakness in the ridge
allowing for a storm to develop. Low temps tonight again above
normal around 60F, with a chance for patchy fog across the Cape Fear
region late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Bermuda High on Wed will give way to pre-frontal trough early Thu
followed by a dry cold front Thu night. The trough may have some
isolated showers with it during the predawn hours of Thu. Deep
moisture is limited with precipitable water around 1.10". More
importantly there is an abundance of dry air with the only area of
RH greater than 80% above 23k ft. However, mid level lapse rates
increase to over 7C/km after midnight and the surface based
inversion is weak. The trough should be strong enough to force some
parcels through the stable boundary layer. Additionally there will
be a bit of support at 5h from a very weak shortwave trough. Not
expecting a lot of rainfall from any showers that do develop, likely
only a couple hundredths at most. Temperatures well above climo Wed
and Wed night continue on Thu and Thu night despite the passage of
the front. The delay in the arrival of the cooler air and the mixed
boundary layer Thu night will contribute to the warm lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Thu night cold front stalls in the area for the end of the week
as the flow aloft remains on the flat side. Brief increase in
moisture and a weak, sheared shortwave later Fri help generate
convection in the afternoon and evening. Better rain chances develop
late Sat and continue into Sun as a strong southern stream shortwave
moves east along the Gulf Coast, spreading ample moisture northward.
Abundant deep moisture, convergence along the frontal zone and mid
level support/divergence ahead of the shortwave will increase rain
chances for the weekend. Rain may linger through the first part of
Monday, depending on how strong/amplified the southern stream system
is. Temperatures above to well above climo to end the week then
highs drop below climo Sun and Mon due to widespread cloud cover and
rain. Lows Sun night and Mon night will end up near climo.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through this evening. A weak front drops into the area,
cross southeast NC, this morning, with light southwest winds
south of the front and more variable winds along the front. With
inland temps forecasted to push 90F again, sea breeze will kick
in midday around 10-15 kts. A stray shower or thunderstorm may
impact northern parts of the forecast area this afternoon and
evening, but chances are low that they will move across ILM or
LBT. Front lifts back north tonight. Potential for fog late
tonight through early Wednesday morning across Cape Fear,
including KILM, though confidence is low given forecasted cloud
coverage. For now have 5SM in the ILM TAFs, but could be lower
vsbys or no fog at all.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
Benign conditions continue across the local coastal waters
through tonight, with 10-15 kt SSW winds prevailing. Exception
to the prevailing winds will be across northern coastal waters
this afternoon and evening, when a weak front is forecasted to
drop south into the area and winds turn briefly southeastward.
Seas 2-3 ft today and tonight, combination of SSW wind wave and
SE swell.

Wednesday through Saturday:
Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow over the waters
through Thu. Southwest winds will be 10-15kt with potential for
speeds in excess of 15kt for a few hours Wed and Thu afternoon.
A cold front moving in from the northwest sets up a brief period
of light offshore flow Thu night into Fri. The front lingers
over the waters, keeping winds 10kt or less with varying
direction. Seas will generally run 2-3 ft with more widespread 3
ft likely Wed and Thu afternoons. Seas will be a mix of a
southerly wind wave and a southeast swell with the swell
becoming more dominant as winds decrease and direction becomes
more changeable late in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...VAO