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097
FXUS62 KILM 070001
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather returns during the middle of the week after
somewhat drier conditions Monday into Tuesday as the Bermuda
High becomes the dominant feature generating local weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
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The center of Chantal has cleared our area, heading north,
leaving mostly north winds in NE SC and south winds in SE NC.
What looks like one more band of showers is moving through, off
of the Horry County coast and up through our coastal SE NC
counties. Rain chances should then further diminish away from
the coast into tonight. Updated 00Z aviation below.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
What`s left of Chantal will continue to move off to the north
tonight while dissipating. With the exception of the few light bands
streaming ashore in the Cape Fear region the precip looks about done
for the day unless some wrap-around QPF manifests...starting to have
doubt but will leave POPs as-is for now. Clearing skies will be
gradual at first and then more pronounced after dark, possibly
setting the area up for some fog if wind abates sufficiently.
Monday`s weather map will feature a piedmont trough taking up
residence behind Chantal and a shortwave traversing the NC/VA
border. Where the forcing of the two align there should be a
seasonable scattering of afternoon thunderstorms (mainly inland) but
with a storm motion containing enough of an easterly component that
all areas will have POPs. Convective coverage will taper slightly
towards the coast where instability will be lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The Piedmont Trough remains in place on Tuesday, not unlike Monday.
The mid level ridge overhead will be building slightly leaving us
susceptible to fewer and weaker shortwaves. With temperatures on the
rise though stronger instability should develop, offsetting the
aforementioned argument for lesser convective coverage. The end
result will be another afternoon of area-wide storms with coverage
capped at about 40 percent. The increased instability has SPC
highlighting the area in Marginal for severe as forecast soundings
show the calling card of wet downbursts with healthy instability
above a cu layer at 6kft and an inverted sounding below this layer.
Tuesday`s HI values could take a run at advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main mid level ridge will be offshore for most of the long term,
with a secondary center well to our west. In the mid levels then
this puts us in a local weakness in the height field. This should
be enough to foster at least seasonable coverage of mainly afternoon
thunderstorms (though persistent shortwave energy could allow for
shallow convection to linger just about any night but this can be
tough to forecast in the longer term) if not some rather unsettled
mid to late week weather. With the added convective coverage the HI
values should start to back away from advisory levels.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Veering of winds will continue until we become largely SW
tonight. The last line of showers looks to be moving through now
with impacts only expected at coastal terminals over the next
hour or so. Gusts should drop out around midnight but some
occasional ~20 kt gusts could pop up at coastal terminals
overnight. Otherwise, my thoughts are that VFR should prevail
with a low chances of sub-VFR CIGs at inland terminals. Winds
should stay up to where fog shouldn`t be an issue, or at worst
it should be patchy, but stratus may be possible. I`m not quite
sure how low things could get or how extensive it will be, but
IFR may be on the table if it develops. Any restrictions should
clear up ~12-14Z where we`ll have SW winds ~10 kts gusting ~20
kts, coastal terminals becoming more southerly in the afternoon
with the sea breeze which will bring a chance of
showers/storms.

Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions possible
Monday through Wednesday due to daytime convection and potential
early morning fog/stratus.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...  Tropical headlines lowered SCA, as is usually
the case as wind and seas both abate more slowly than tropical
threats as they exit northward. As what`s left of Chantal continues
to move away from the area our NW quickly turn back to SW and then S
today all while abating. SCA to drop tonight as SW wind looks to
dominate the forecast as Bermuda High takes over.

Monday through Thursday... Little to disturb the Bermuda High
through the period, it`s resulting SWrly flow slightly bolstered by
semi-permanent Piedmont Trough. A longer period SErly swell will be
present along with the shorter period wind chop.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Other - Rip Currents: Southerly waves associated with former
Tropical Storm Chantal will diminish in height Monday but will
likely retain enough energy to produce a high risk of rip
currents on the south facing beaches of Brunswick County, NC and
the northern half of Horry County, SC. North of Cape Fear,
Chantal`s diminishing waves will be joined by a new 14-15 second
easterly swell that will help keep the rip current risk high
there. Surfers will be disappointed by smaller wave heights
developing by Tuesday but casual beachgoers should find safer
surf conditions by then.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for NCZ106-108-110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ILM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...