Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
213 FXUS62 KILM 061820 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 220 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather returns during the middle of the week after somewhat drier conditions Monday into Tuesday as the Bermuda High becomes the dominant feature generating local weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... What`s left of Chantal will continue to move off to the north tonight while dissipating. With the exception of the few light bands streaming ashore in the Cape Fear region the precip looks about done for the day unless some wrap-around QPF manifests...starting to have doubt but will leave POPs as-is for now. Clearing skies will be gradual at first and then more pronounced after dark, possibly setting the area up for some fog if wind abates sufficiently. Monday`s weather map will feature a piedmont trough taking up residence behind Chantal and a shortwave traversing the NC/VA border. Where the forcing of the two align there should be a seasonable scattering of afternoon thunderstorms (mainly inland) but with a storm motion containing enough of an easterly component that all areas will have POPs. Convective coverage will taper slightly towards the coast where instability will be lower. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The Piedmont Trough remains in place on Tuesday, not unlike Monday. The mid level ridge overhead will be building slightly leaving us susceptible to fewer and weaker shortwaves. With temperatures on the rise though stronger instability should develop, offsetting the aforementioned argument for lesser convective coverage. The end result will be another afternoon of area-wide storms with coverage capped at about 40 percent. The increased instability has SPC highlighting the area in Marginal for severe as forecast soundings show the calling card of wet downbursts with healthy instability above a cu layer at 6kft and an inverted sounding below this layer. Tuesday`s HI values could take a run at advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The main mid level ridge will be offshore for most of the long term, with a secondary center well to our west. In the mid levels then this puts us in a local weakness in the height field. This should be enough to foster at least seasonable coverage of mainly afternoon thunderstorms (though persistent shortwave energy could allow for shallow convection to linger just about any night but this can be tough to forecast in the longer term) if not some rather unsettled mid to late week weather. With the added convective coverage the HI values should start to back away from advisory levels. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weakening winds will veer or turn counterclockwise in direction as Chantal continues to exit to the north. Skies will slowly improve to MVFR this evening and VFR overnight save for whatever lowered CIGS hang on over far northern zones. Some of the "rule of thumb" techniques have suggested that some light fog may develop. Most statistical guidance does not however and pair this with a continuation of light breeze by sunup have left out of TAFs for now. && .MARINE... Through Monday... Tropical headlines lowered SCA, as is usually the case as wind and seas both abate more slowly than tropical threats as they exit northward. As what`s left of Chantal continues to move away from the area our NW quickly turn back to SW and then S today all while abating. SCA to drop tonight as SW wind looks to dominate the forecast as Bermuda High takes over. Monday through Thursday... Little to disturb the Bermuda High through the period, it`s resulting SWrly flow slightly bolstered by semi-permanent Piedmont Trough. A longer period SErly swell will be present along with the shorter period wind chop. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: Lingering large swell from Tropical Storm Chantal will lead to high surf heights and a high rip current risk today, with the high rip risk potentially continuing into Monday as well. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...MBB NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MBB MARINE...ILM