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FXUS62 KILM 291340
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
938 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today remains dry and sunny due to offshore high pressure. An
upper level disturbance will lead to shower and storm chances
late Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry and sunny weather returns
Thursday and Friday. From there, a cold front approaches the
area, bringing chances for showers and storms by the weekend.

&&
.UPDATE/...
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No changes to the forecast this morning.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high will remain parked off the coast as ridging at
850/700/500 mb slowly shifts offshore later today into tonight.
Subsidence and dry air will keep the region dry with minimal
cloud cover. Temperatures will be near to a little above climo
with the sea breeze keeping coastal sites a bit cooler. Main
forecast concern for today will be morning fog and enhanced
onshore flow following the passage of the sea breeze. Boundary
layer winds will be stronger tonight into Tuesday morning and
fog will be less of a concern, although patchy fog will still be
possible inland. Lows tonight will end up several degrees above
climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cloud cover continues to increase Tuesday ahead of a shortwave
aloft approaching the area. A few isolated showers are possible
inland later in the day as some of the better forcing arrives.
This shortwave deepens and becomes quite the little trough
pattern as it pushes eastward and offshore Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Upper forcing looks much better here, and there`s a
very subtle coastal trough forming nearby. This creates more
robust shower and thunderstorm chances. SBCAPE looks to eclipse
above 1000 J/kg by Wednesday afternoon, coinciding with pretty
good low-level lapse rates and DCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg.
Considering the decent bulk shear, this indicates some good
downdrafts in thunderstorms, but some pieces are missing. Lapse
rates aloft are quite pedestrian, which is not much of a
surprise around here. Wind and hail could be a factor with some
storms, but nothing suggests much of a severe threat.

Rain chances taper off Wednesday night as the shortwave pushes
offshore. Highs each day in the low-to-mid 80s. Lows in the
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid-level ridging sets in Thursday and Friday, which brings
overall quiet weather here. A dry cold front will try to drop
southward into the area Thursday morning, but it may not make it
all the way here. Even if it does, no rain chances here. A weak
Piedmont trough sets up inland, which will try to squeeze out
an isolated shower or two Thursday and Friday, but dry air aloft
and good subsidence will likely eliminate this idea. Highs each
day in the low-to-mid 80s, lows in the lower 60s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase by the weekend, as a
cold front approaches and may stall across the area by Sunday.
Temperatures remain locked in where they have been.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy MVFR/IFR fog has developed across parts of the area, it
will be short lived with mixing during the 1-2 hours bringing
all sites back to VFR. Once they return VFR conditions will
persist into the overnight hours. Sea breeze will lead to
enhanced southeast winds for coastal terminals in the afternoon.
Some patch MVFR fog possible tonight, although boundary layer
winds will be stronger, keeping fog impacts limited.

Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate. MVFR/IFR visibility
possible each morning around daybreak. Shower/thunderstorm
impacts at all terminals possible Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Surface high off the coast maintains southerly
flow today and tonight. Sea breeze will lead to enhancement of
winds nearshore with a bit more of an onshore component.
Nearshore gusts of 15-20 kt will be possible in the afternoon
and early evening before the sea breeze circulation breaks down.
Seas will run 2-3 ft with occasional 4 ft away from shore. Seas
will be a mix of an easterly swell and a southerly wind wave.

Tuesday through Friday...SSW to SW winds at 5-10kts are
accompanied with 2-3ft seas through Wednesday. Shortwave trough
aloft moves offshore Wednesday night, allowing winds to veer
westerly, then northerly by Thursday morning, then ESE Thursday
afternoon through Friday. Seas steadily drop down to 1-2ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


ILM UPDATE...MBB
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/IGB