Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161030 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 630 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will settle south of the area leaving drier and cooler weather over the area Monday and Tuesday. As high pressure to our south moves offshore Wednesday, warmer weather will come with above normal temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday. A dry cold front will move across the area Thursday night. Cooler and dry high pressure will follow Friday into the weekend. Another frontal system will approach from the west Sunday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Lingering showers from Wilmington up through Pender county were coming to an end as cold front tracks farther off to the northeast through early this morning. A negatively tilted mid to upper trough will wrap cooler air into the area in a brisk and gusty W-SW flow through today. Temps were down into the mid 50s while temps along the Cape Fear coast were still in the mid 60s. By early morning temps will drop closer to 50 inland and up in the mid 50s near the coast. CAA will bring 850 temps from close to 14C before the front down near 2c this morning and into today. Some sunshine along with westerly downslope flow will help to offset the CAA a bit, to produce temps in the mid 60s most places. Dewpoint temps will be down in the 30s this afternoon. Lingering moisture in the low levels combined with energy rotating around the trough aloft, will produce some clouds today. Soundings and moisture profiles show this moisture stuck under a fairly steep inversion right around 5 to 6 k ft. The column cools and dries out further tonight as the mid to upper trough lifts off leaving a deep NW flow of dry and cool air. A secondary push of CAA tonight bringing 850 temps down to -3 to -4C. Looks like winds will be slow to diminish tonight but do look like they will drop off to 3 to 4 kts. Not expecting any freezing temps, but rather lows in the mid to upper 30s most places. The dewpoint temps will be down near 30 but do not expect temps to drop that rapidly and therefore should not see much in the way of frost around. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Mid-level trough across New England will retreat as ridging begins to blossom across the Southeast downstream of another upper low which will dive into the Great Lakes Thursday. While this secondary feature will push a cold front towards the area Wednesday night, the mid-week period will feature dry conditions with warming temperatures as surface high pressure expands across FL and then shifts eastward. While there may be periods of high level cirrus as moisture streams overhead from the Pacific in fast flow, the rest of the column is forecast to be quite dry as PWATs fall to around 0.5 inches. This dry column combined with 850mb temps climbing to +12 to +15C by Wednesday supports temps well above climo the latter half of the period. Expect highs to soar into the 80s away from the coast and sea breeze Wednesday, after much cooler readings Tuesday around 70. The nocturnal mins will feature a similar pattern, with near normal lows in the upper 40s Tuesday night, dropping only to around 60 Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fair weather is expected through Saturday, despite the passage of a cold front on Thursday as moisture is forecast to be limited with the front. Cool high pressure will then control area weather into Sunday when another frontal system approaching from the west will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Max temperatures Thu will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with upper 60s to lower 70s expected Fri through Sun. Mins in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wed night will cool to the upper 40s to lower 50s for the remainder of the long term period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 06Z...Terminals will improve through early today with a strong cold front moving off to the northeast and high pressure settling to the south. Flight categories will improve to VFR towards daybreak. Lingering moisture in the low levels will be stuck under subsidence inversion right around 5 to 6 k ft. Therefore expect SCT to BKN Cumulus field in the 4k to 6k ft level. Expect winds to veer around from SW to W, remaining gusty, up to 15 to 25 kt. Extended outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...A Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters through early this morning. Winds gusts were peaking around 35 to 40 kts with a strong low level flow above the surface. Latest buoy reports show wave heights were between 7 and 11 ft most waters. SW winds will veer to a more westerly direction through this morning as cold front lifts off to the northeast. The offshore winds will help ease the seas closer to the coast and push highest seas off shore. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected today for winds of 20 to 25 kt and gusts to around 30 kt. Seas will subside from 6 to 10 ft early in the morning to 5 to 7 ft late in the afternoon. Winds will shift to become more NW tonight 15 to 25 kts. Seas will spike up a little overnight, but overall will be on a downward trend into early Tues morning to 3 to 5 ft. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...High pressure will expand across the FL Gulf Coast before elongating E-W and shifting into the Atlantic Ocean through mid-week. With the surface feature remaining well south of the waters, the gradient will stay pinched so wind speeds will be elevated at 15-20 kts from the west Tuesday, increasing to 20-25 kts and backing to the SW late Wednesday and Wednesday night. This increase is due to the sharpening of the gradient in response to an approaching cold front late in the period, and will push seas up to 4-6 ft, likely necessitating an SCA. Before that occurs, seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft Tue/Wed as the offshore wind component limits wave amplitude. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure will give way to a quick moving front that will cross the waters late on Thursday. Southwest winds 15 to 20 KT Thu will become W to NW after the frontal passage Thu night before shifting to the N and decreasing to 10 to 15 KT on Friday. There is a chance winds could reach 25 KT Wed night and Thu and a Small Craft Advisory may be required Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas 3 to 5 FT Thu will subside to 2 to 3 FT by late Fri. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...

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