Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
282 FXUS62 KILM 191612 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1212 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front south of the area will lift to the north today and tonight, bringing patches of light rain to the area. A series of low pressure systems, will bring showers and a few rumbles of thunder tonight through Tuesday. As strong low pressure offshore pulls to the north, rain may mix or change over to snow Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly across southeast North Carolina. The relatively mild ground should prevent significant impacts. Cool conditions will prevail mid to late week, with a slight warming trend Saturday, before a cold front passage next Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1212 PM Monday...Significant reduction of POP and Sky Cover will be needed as we progress through afternoon based on radar trends and near term model trends. May need to adjust upward Max-T in spots as partly sunny conditions prevail in early afternoon. As of 936 AM Monday...Patches of light rain will spread across NE SC and the corner of SE NC through early afternoon before a tapering trend remainder of the daylight period. Rain chances will ramp up into early Tuesday, by daybreak, as convergence in the low-levels increases over the area, in response to a low pressure axis forming across the area, transferring energy east. The heavier rain will be favored across SE NC Tuesday morning. Near `flat-line` temps today, will slowly ascend overnight as warm air advection in wake of the warm front gears up. Local dewpoints will crest above 60 Tuesday, and MUCape model spreads still show pronounced instability aloft Tuesday, so TSTMs in the mix as well tomorrow, as soon as daybreak with an initial line of convection passing, or clipping interior northern SE NC. Shear parameters appear sufficient for strong storms, and low levels winds up to 45 kt Tuesday afternoon may support a few severe storms, and the SPC has highlighted our area with `slight` and `enhanced` risk zones. As of 3 AM Monday...Forcing is limited with rain during the day being mainly driven by weak isentropic lift as the front stalled to the south slowly returns north. Flow aloft remains progressive with very little in the way of shortwave energy passing overhead at any point during the forecast period. Warm front is lifted north of the area by low pressure moving into the TN Valley this evening and overnight. Secondary wave develops along the front tonight, as it lifts across the area, which ends up shifting the heavy rain north of the area. Cannot rule out thunder, especially later today and overnight as the warm front draws near. However soundings do not look supportive of widespread thunder. Afternoon and evening convection will be elevated with minimal connection to the surface layer. Passage of the warm front significantly lowers the LFC but even then conditions are not such that severe or even strong storms are a concern. Cloud cover and east-northeast flow will keep highs a little below climo with lower 60s expected. Warm front lifting across the area this evening will result in temps holding steady then slowly increasing from around midnight on. Lows will end up well above climo with mid to upper 50s expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 AM Monday...Somewhat of a busy week, weatherwise, shaping up for this upcoming week. Models are finally becoming a bit more unison with one another with their respective solutions. Tue will start out with a warm front that pushed across the FA the night before and now is progged to stall just north of the FA on Tue. The FA will be in the warm sector with model MOS guidance now giving widespread 70s for Tue highs. In addition, models illustrate a tightening of the sfc pg that will eventually affect the entire East Coast of the U.S. by late Wed. In turn, the last sfc low is progged to finally get kick started off to the Canadian Maritimes and deepen to sub 980 mb by Thu morning. Prior to the kick-start of the low low, models indicate that the cold front associated with this last low will drop southward, crossing the FA early Wed. Models are not in unison with respect to those mid-level s/w trofs that are rotating around the closed mid-level low located from the NE States to the Mid-Atlantic States. What`s even more baffling is the amount of moisture thru the atm column of this eventual closed low. To sum it up, looking at Spring like conditions for Tue that transitions to winter like conditions as cold air from north of the Great Lakes is tapped by the closed upper low and promptly delivers into the local area. Could see pcpn end as a mix of wintry pcpn, all depending on the full extent of the CAA and the amount of moisture thru the atm column. MOS guidance for THU lows have backed off and are now hoovering at or just above freezing. Nevertheless, the agricultural interests across the Bi-State region of the Carolinas are well heightened at the moment for the possibility of Frost/Freeze conditions Thu and/or again on Fri morning. The pcpn that may end as a wintry mix is not expected to accumulate due to the mild soil temps and the intensity of the snow is not expected to be overpowering. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Deep mid to upper trough will swing across the Carolinas on Wed as sfc low lifts north and deepens off of the Mid Atlantic coast. CAA on the back end of the low combined with potent shortwave energy and lingering moisture will bring some rain or possibly even some snow showers Wed eve before all pcp comes to an end. Model soundings show a fairly deep layer of moisture below freezing heading into Wed eve. Too soon to tell for certain, but have added a little SW- Wed night. CAA begins in force leading into Wed with 850 temps dropping below 0c Wed aftn and dropping further through Thurs morning, down to -5c. Temps will drop into the 30s most places with some frost or freeze potential in spots, both early Thurs morning and early Fri morning. Continued cool through Thurs and Fri as dry and cold high pressure builds down into the Carolinas. Temps both Thurs and Fri may not reach above 60. Low pressure system will brush the Carolinas Fri night into Sat as it moves toward the within the ILM Coastal Waters. Mid Atlantic coast. This will produce increase in clouds and greater chc of rain across the area late Fri into early Sat. Temps will be back to seasonable by next weekend. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12Z...Currently VFR, but surface observations reveal MVFR/IFR to the south of the terminals in association with precipitation. This morning it appears likely low VFR/high MVFR cigs and light rain will slowly spread northeast across the terminals. Have low confidence in any IFR of significance. In the afternoon, precipitation will become more showery and MVFR will become less likely as a slow moving warm front lifts north into the Carolinas. The warm front lifts north of the area overnight, accompanied by isolated to scattered showers. Confidence is increasing that IFR cigs will develop overnight. Extended outlook...Periods of MVFR/IFR CIGs Tuesday morning through Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 936 AM Monday...2.5 - 3.5 ft seas at present, with a choppy wave spectrum, dominated by 5-6 second wave periods, and little long period energy in the mix. Seas will hold in this range today, building tonight as winds increase from the south following passage of a warm front. An `exercise caution` statement is possible tonight into Tuesday. Rain at times may limit visibility tonight and Tuesday, and a few strong TSTMS are possible on Tuesday, and a radar check is advised before venturing out. As of 3 AM Monday...High pressure moving farther off the NC coast today will maintain easterly flow over the waters into the evening. Weak gradient in place will persist through the day and speeds will be generally 10 kt or less. Front stalled south of waters this morning slowly moves north, crossing the waters this evening as a warm front. Gradient becomes more defined following the passage of the front, as low pressure starts to develop. Southerly flow develops after midnight with speeds increasing to 15 to 20 kt as the period ends. Seas 2 to 3 ft today will start to build overnight in response to increasing southwest flow. Not unreasonable to expect 3 to 5 ft seas as the period ends. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 5 AM Monday...An oscillating frontal boundary will keep the local waters on edge this period. One aspect is that it will keep wind directions changing during this 2 day period. What`s even worse are wind speeds progged to increase and likely flirt with SCEC and SCA thresholds. With the front lifting north of the FA by Tues, SW winds will temporarily dominate `at decent speeds but they will be limited due to WAA winds blowing across relatively cool SSTS. By Wed, this sfc front now drops southward and across the local waters as a cold front. The sfc pg tightens across all waters as the sfc low itself intensifies. Looking at decent CAA winds that will have no problem mixing down to the ocean sfc, further intensifying the increase of wind speeds. By the end of this period, wind directions will range from WNW-NW-NNW. This direction span will be a fetch limitation for local wave generation and will forecast seas barely reaching SCA thresholds Wed into Thu. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Low pressure will deepen as it moves off to the N-NE on Wed. A strong off shore flow will develop behind departing low as plenty of cold air flows down over the waters. Gusty N to NW flow Wed into Wed night will reach up to 20 to 25 kts. The off shore component to the flow will keep greatest seas off shore with seas subsiding from 5 to 7 ft early Wed down to 3 to 5 ft by Wed night. CAA through Wed night will keep winds up through the night. Seas will diminish through Thurs into Fri as a lighter northerly flow will persist as high pressure extends down into the waters. By Fri night into early Sat, winds will pickup out of the south as next system moves toward the Mid Atlantic coast. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...III/MJC SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.