151
FXUS62 KILM 061937
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
337 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm activity will peak today into Tue.
For later Tue into Thu, could see the warmest temps of this
Spring season as ridging aloft, troffing across the inland
Carolinas and Atlantic high pressure situated offshore all
combine to provide an extended period of SW. A cold frontal
passage accompanied with showers and thunderstorms will occur
Thu into Fri, followed by cooler and drier weather for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A shortwave trough in the mid levels of the atmosphere will pass
through the area by about daybreak Tuesday, bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening. In
the wake of the trough, isolated showers and storms will be possible
Tuesday but coverage should be much more limited than today as
ridging builds in aloft.  Lows tonight will fall to the mid to upper
60s with highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Unseasonably hot and humid Wed with heat indices peaking in the
 mid to possibly upper 90s
*Low severe storm risk Wed/Wed night

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details:
High pressure offshore and an inland trough will prevail at
the surface along with periodic weak disturbances aloft. This will
keep it unseasonably warm and muggy with some showers and storms,
mainly Wednesday afternoon/evening. Although coverage of rain should
be pretty low, a few storms could become severe, especially
Wednesday evening in NC.

Temps will be on an upswing, staying well above normal, with lows
each night near 70/in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s
inland Wednesday. No records are expected to be reached, although
could come the closest at Wilmington (92 degrees) and maybe even
Florence (95 degrees). Heat indices on Wednesday should peak in the
mid 90s (possibly even some upper 90s), which is still well below
our Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees). However, this will be the
first really muggy day this spring and folks should be especially
mindful if they will be outdoors for any significant amount of time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
*Unseasonably hot and humid Thu with heat indices peaking in the
 mid 90s
*Low severe storm risk Thu

Confidence:
*Low to Moderate through Friday
*Moderate to High Friday night through Monday

Details:
High pressure centered offshore along with a trough inland
should prevail until a cold front moves through later in the work
week, likely either Thursday night or Friday. Ahead of the front
some severe storms could develop Thursday/Thursday night. Cooler and
drier weather will then move in after the cold front passes later in
the week and continue into early next week with a refreshing break
in the heat/humidity expected.

The warmest temperatures this period will be Thursday with highs
near 90 inland and heat indices into the mid 90s. Temps should fall
Friday, either due to cooler air already moving in behind the cold
front or due to more clouds/rain from the passing front if it`s
slower to progress through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Outside showers and thunderstorms expect mainly VFR conditions
through the valid taf period.  Do expect that all terminals will
have brief MVFR or even IFR conditions due to scattered showers and
storms this afternoon and evening.  Overnight, terminals show VFR
but there is a small chance of MVFR/IFR cigs developing in the 08-
12Z timeframe.

Extended Outlook...Isolated convection could bring visibility and
ceiling restrictions Tue afternoon. Otherwise, looking at VFR
dominating Tue night into Thu with limited convection.Clearing later
Fri with VFR dominating. Flight restrictions possible later Thu
into Fri from convection ahead of a strong cold front. VFR
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday: Southwest winds to 10 to 15 KT are expected
tonight and Tuesday with 20 KT possible at times Tuesday. Seas
of 2 to 3 FT are expected through the period with 4 footers
closer to 20 nm on Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Saturday...The local waters will remain
between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough at least mid
week maintaining elevated southerly winds until a cold front moves
through either Thursday night or Friday. Winds will likely be near
Small Craft Advisory levels much of the period with the most likely
timeframe of exceeding 25 kt gusts coming Thursday/Thursday night as
the cold front approaches. Seas should mostly stay below SCA levels
(6 ft) but could also reach SCA levels briefly, especially later
Thursday/Thursday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...31
MARINE...RJB/31