Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251720 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 120 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Daytime temperatures will rise to about normal for late April much of the upcoming week, mainly upper 70s to around 80. A series of low pressure systems, will bring isolated showers today, and then a better chance of rain with isolated storms Thursday night. A drying trend is expected into the weekend through early next week, with seasonable temperatures, as a Canadian High drops into the mid-Atlantic region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Mid-level trough will slowly cross the area this morning and exit to the northeast this afternoon. Lingering moisture under the mid-level cold pool coupled with diurnal heating usually produces at least some afternoon convection. Forecast soundings hint at mid-level subsidence developing this afternoon in the wake of the trough. This may prevent deeper convection from developing, but still think low topped showers will be possible across much of the area. Coverage will be limited, but steep low level lapse rates and moisture below 10k ft suggest some potential, especially across the NC counties. Along with the isolated to scattered showers, skies will become partly to mostly cloudy after a few hours of heating. Do not expect much, if any lightning given the subsidence around 10k ft. Upward motion will have trouble making it to the freezing level, let alone generating any ice. Loss of heating will bring an end to any shower potential and allow for clearing skies overnight. Dry cold front moves off the coast as the period comes to an end. Temperatures above climo continue through the period with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...`Between 2 systems` begins the day Thursday, and not a bad day with sunshine and 70s, before clouds increase ahead of system 2. A smaller scale, but potent short-wave will whip northward over our western frontier Thursday night, offering a good chance of rain showers and TSTMS, favored at this time near and along the I-95 lane, significantly lesser QPF amounts near the coast. This short-wave and attendant surface low arrive when the days diurnal heat is about gone, and low-level winds appear only of moderate strength. So although the system is a potent one, odds of a severe hazard right now appear low < 5%, but any strong showers or storms could produce 45 mph gusts, as convection should remain mostly still be rooted, and influential to surface conditions. Friday a day of drying with only isolated showers and temps remaining mild as late April climate prevails. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...A deepening trough will exit the coast late Saturday. After this short-wave trough clears the larger scale trough will shift east of the United States and ridging will become established. Warmer temperatures are on the horizon with lower 80s by Tue. The best chance of showers will be Saturday evening with a chance of showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 18Z...SCT/BKN clouds around 3-4k mainly northern terminals, with SW-W winds at 10-15 kt. As heating continues this afternoon cloud cover will likely remain broken with showers possible, most likely at LBT/ILM. Have add VCSH at ILM where confidence is higher, otherwise have not mentioned in TAFs due to anticipated isolated coverage. Winds by this evening will decrease as directions become WSW-WNW then become light and variable. Wind directions will gradually veer from NE to SE during Thursday as mid-level cloud cover begins to increase late. Extended outlook...Tempo MVFR Thu night through Sat. Otherwise VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory continues for all zones due to seas that have been slow to subside. Southwest flow in the 10 to 15 kt range continues through the morning. This should allow seas across SC zones the chance to drop under 6 ft a little after daybreak. Winds start to increase in the afternoon as gradient tightens slightly in response to weak surface trough moving into the area. Speeds will remain under 20 kt and direction will start to become more westerly, which may still allow for expiration of the SCA for the NC zones later this afternoon. Westerly flow around 10 kt through the evening and into the overnight becomes northwest late in the period as cold front moves across the region. Front lacks any real cold advection and speeds will be 10 kt or less as the period ends. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...By Thursday morning, a cold front, not that strong, will be moving south of the waters, with 10 kt N-NE winds. This will only be brief, as winds quickly veer to S in response to an approaching low pressure system. The low will move north well west of the waters, so S-SW wind is maintained through the period. SW gusts to 20 kt ought to be expected Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the front, which crosses the coast prior to daybreak Saturday. No advisories expected with this system at this time, but it will be bumpy Friday. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM Tuesday...High pressure will build over the waters and winds and seas are expected to be at or below 15 knots and no advisories are expected. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...III/JDW SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...MRR MARINE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.