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Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
000
FNUS52 KILM 240743
FWFILM
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
343 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018
.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front will remain in close proximity as it slowly
dissipates through Friday with fewer thunderstorms around Friday
and Saturday as compared to today. Developing low pressure in the
Gulf of Mexico may take on tropical characteristics as it moves
north through the Memorial Day weekend. Tropical moisture streaming
northward should help fuel a higher probability of showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain across the eastern Carolinas Sunday
and into early next week.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight...Low.
NCZ105>110-242345-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes,
Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport,
and Sunset Beach
343 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018
Today Tonight Fri
Cloud amount MCldy PCldy PCldy
Precip chc (%) 40 30 30
Precip type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Min/Max Temp 84 65 85
Wnd20ft/early(mph) W 4 E 6 E 4
Wnd20ft/late(mph) SE 7 E 4 SE 6
Precip amount 0.08 0.06 0.04
Precip duration 2 1 2
Inversion 74/0900 2100 75/0900
Dispersion Fair
Max/Min RH (%) 57 95 53
DSI 2 2
Haines Index 3 3 3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL) 4910 5140
Transport wnd (mph) E 12 S 6
Ventilation rate 58920 30840
ADI early 14 Gen poor 28 Fair 13 Gen poor
ADI late 35 Fair 4 Very poor 35 Fair
Max LVORI early 7 5 6
Max LVORI late 3 7 2
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 70. Maximum RH
98 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 59 percent. South
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH
94 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 73 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 99 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 80 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 75 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 75 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
NCZ087-096-099-242345-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
343 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018
Today Tonight Fri
Cloud amount MCldy PCldy PCldy
Precip chc (%) 50 30 30
Precip type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Min/Max Temp 85 65 87
Wnd20ft/early(mph) W 4 SE 5 E 4
Wnd20ft/late(mph) SE 7 E 4 SE 5
Precip amount 0.09 0.06 0.09
Precip duration 2 1 1
Inversion 73/0900 2100 73/0900
Dispersion Poor
Max/Min RH (%) 57 96 49
DSI 2 3
Haines Index 3 3 3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL) 5320 5180
Transport wnd (mph) E 10 S 7
Ventilation rate 53200 36260
ADI early 17 Gen poor 30 Fair 12 poor
ADI late 35 Fair 3 Very poor 34 Fair
Max LVORI early 9 5 7
Max LVORI late 3 7 2
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
100 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 53 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 96 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 69 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 100 percent. Southeast
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 75 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 99 percent. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 71 percent. South
winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 98 percent.
South winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 72 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
$$
SCZ054>056-058-059-242345-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
Including the cities of Myrtle Beach, Socastee, North Myrtle Beach,
Garden City, Little River, Andrews, Georgetown, Murrells Inlet,
Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris, Green Sea, and Aynor
343 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018
Today Tonight Fri
Cloud amount MCldy MCldy PCldy
Precip chc (%) 50 40 30
Precip type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Min/Max Temp 84 66 86
Wnd20ft/early(mph) SW 3 SE 5 E 5
Wnd20ft/late(mph) SE 6 E 4 SE 7
Precip amount 0.08 0.08 0.06
Precip duration 2 2 2
Inversion 74/0900 2100 75/0900
Dispersion Fair
Max/Min RH (%) 65 99 57
DSI 2 2
Haines Index 3 3 4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL) 4550 4980
Transport wnd (mph) SE 7 S 9
Ventilation rate 31850 44820
ADI early 4 Very poor 23 Fair 15 Gen poor
ADI late 24 Fair 3 Very poor 36 Fair
Max LVORI early 8 6 8
Max LVORI late 4 8 3
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 99 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 59 percent. South
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 94 percent.
South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 77 percent.
Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 99 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 79 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 96 percent. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 77 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 96 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 73 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-242345-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, North Hartsville, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
343 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018
Today Tonight Fri
Cloud amount MCldy MCldy MCldy
Precip chc (%) 60 40 40
Precip type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 4 3 3
Min/Max Temp 85 66 86
Wnd20ft/early(mph) SW 3 SE 5 E 4
Wnd20ft/late(mph) E 7 E 4 SE 6
Precip amount 0.10 0.08 0.07
Precip duration 2 2 2
Inversion 73/0900 2100 73/0900
Dispersion Fair
Max/Min RH (%) 59 99 49
DSI 2 3
Haines Index 3 3 4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL) 5220 5280
Transport wnd (mph) SE 8 S 10
Ventilation rate 41760 52800
ADI early 8 poor 27 Fair 16 Gen poor
ADI late 26 Fair 3 Very poor 36 Fair
Max LVORI early 8 6 9
Max LVORI late 4 9 2
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
99 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 51 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 96 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 72 percent.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
around 70. Maximum RH 99 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs
in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 76 percent. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 98 percent. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 71 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms
likely. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 69 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
$$
.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal. Precipitation above normal.
$$
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE BURN CATEGORY VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
0 TO 17249 1 0 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499 2 33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749 3 45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999 4 60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER 5 112000 OR GREATER
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND DISPERSION FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
STAGNANT NEAR CALM
CALM VERY POOR 2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH POOR 5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH FAIR 9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH GOOD GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE EXCELLENT
ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.
$$
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- Page last modified: Mar 8th, 2018 20:36 UTC