Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151344 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 944 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move east today, allowing high pressure to build from the northwest. Dry weather will continue on Friday as the high progresses across the region, before precipitation returns Saturday ahead of low pressure tracking through Kentucky. High pressure and dry conditions are forecast to return Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A look at the surface analysis shows a cold front moving into the ILN CWA this morning, bringing essentially no change in weather to speak of, outside of a shift in the winds to the WNW. Two large areas of surface high pressure have prominent positions in the pattern -- one over Florida, and another over the Manitoba/Ontario border area. The ridge running between the two extends into the lower Ohio Valley, and as the aforementioned cold front departs, the axis of this ridge will move into the OH/IN/KY area by evening. This is a very dry air mass, with the 12Z KILN sounding recording a precipitable water value of just 0.21 inches. A dry forecast will be maintained through the day, with clear to mostly clear skies in most locations. It does look like some cumulus or stratocumulus clouds may drift on into central Ohio at some point this afternoon, but given upstream trends, sky percentages will be kept under 40 percent. Current temperature trends, latest HRRR/RAP projections, and the clear/dry conditions this morning suggest that there will be a pretty solid rise in temperatures this afternoon, even with some weak 925mb cold advection behind the front this morning. Max temps were raised a degree or two from the previous forecast. Previous discussion > Surface analysis shows a weak cold front entering Northwest Ohio. Mid level clouds are increasing ahead of the front. Otherwise, skies should remain mainly sunny today as there is very little moisture to be found near this front. A shift in wind direction from southwest to northwest will occur with frontal passage, and gusts over 20 mph will be observed. Insolation and a well mixed environment will allow high temperatures to reach the lower 40s north up to the mid 50s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure extending along a northwest flow aloft will push across the Ohio Valley tonight through Friday. Mainly clear skies tonight will be followed by increasing clouds from the southwest on Friday as mid and high clouds develop ahead of the next low pressure system. Relatively brisk north winds tonight will subside Friday while shifting to northeast as the high moves through. Temperatures will slip a few degrees in the cool circulation around the high, with afternoon readings in the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level low over the central plains to open up and weaken as it tracks across the Ohio Valley Saturday/Saturday night. WAA precipitation to develop ahead of weakening low late Friday night. Low level easterly flow will keep cold air at the surface, with warm air aloft. Therefore, the potential exists for a period of freezing rain late Friday night/Saturday morning prior to changing to rain. Temperatures will continue below normal with highs Saturday from the lower 40s north to near 50 south. With weakening surface low tracking through the Ohio Valley rain showers to end Saturday night. Surface high pressure to build across the area offering dry weather Sunday. Temperatures are expected to warm slightly above normal with highs Sunday from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south. Next mid level and surface low to track into the Ohio Valley early next week. Model solutions have trended a little slower, so have chance pops for rain showers developing Monday afternoon. Above normal temperatures expected Monday with highs from the upper 40s north to the upper 50s south. System to track through the Ohio Valley Monday night/early Tuesday, so have continued likely pops for rain showers during this period. Complex weather pattern with next mid level s/w ejecting into the region from the southwest Tuesday/Tuesday night as energy drops down into the upper Mississippi Valley. This will keep a chance of pcpn going with pcpn changing to snow across most of the area Tuesday night. Temperatures turn cooler with highs Tuesday from near 40 northwest to 50 southeast. As upper MS VLY energy digs southeast a large mid/upper level low to develop in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Model solutions show a large spread in the development and placement of this system. Therefore, confidence is low from the middle into the end of next week. Have limited pops to chance category but if the low closes off over the Ohio Valley pops will be higher. Cooler temperatures to continue with highs Wednesday from the upper 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast. On Thursday highs to range from the the lower 40s north to upper 40s south. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR will continue through the TAF period. A dry cold front will cross TAF sites this morning, followed by high pressure arriving on a northwest upper flow. The high will keep mainly clear skies over the region through the end of the forecast. Winds gusting over 20 knots today are forecast to shift to northwest behind the front, then to north and northeast near the end of the forecast as the high progresses southeast. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible Saturday through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.