Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171801 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 201 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will build into the region this afternoon into tonight. Lingering snow showers will end this morning followed by decreasing clouds. A low pressure system will track across the area at midweek, offering a chance of rain showers Wednesday and Thursday. A large area of high pressure will build into the Great Lakes for the end of the week into next weekend providing dry weather conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface low is currently over Quebec and continuing to slowly shift northeastward late this morning. Enough lingering wrap around moisture in the dendritic growth zone has left some lingering snow showers, mainly across the NW CWA through this morning. These snow showers and flurries will continue to shift NE with the departing low pressure system, dissipating by early afternoon. Meanwhile high pressure will begin to take hold of the region from the west, with clearing expected from SW to NE throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Given that most locations will stay mostly cloudy throughout the day, especially in the NE, will be hard pressed to expect temps to rise much in these locations. As such, adjusted forecasted high and hourly temps down a bit, sticking closer to Consshort in the low 40s. Meanwhile, for those locations in the S and SW portion of the CWA who could see clearing in the next couple of hours, temperatures may rise well into the low and mid 50s, creating a large gradient across the CWA. Will continue to monitor temps and cloud cover throughout the next few hours and adjust the forecast as necessary. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will build into the area overnight. Clouds will decrease through the aftn into this evening. This clearing will be brief as warm advection clouds overspread the area later tonight ahead of a surface low and developing warm front. Lows tonight to range from the upper 20s north to near 40 south where clouds will be thickest. There is a strip of counties across the central portion of ILN/s FA where the frost/freeze program has began that may approach freezing tonight. It looks like the arrival of clouds may keep temperatures just above freezing. Developing surface low to track from the central plains into the mid MS VLY Wednesday and then across the area Wed night. Trends are a little slower so have a chance of showers holding off until Wednesday afternoon with the best chance across the north. On the warm side of the system temperatures to reach highs from the upper 50s northwest to near 70 southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper trough will continue to be positioned over Eastern North America, and with the area under a northwest flow aloft, temperatures will stay cooler than normal and there will be a general lack of deep moisture transport and forcing, greatly limiting the chances for heavy precip or severe weather. Low pressure will be traveling across Northern Ohio Wednesday night, before moving to the East Coast on Thursday. Showers will be possible, mainly over northern locations, and snow may mix in Thursday night as precip is departing. A large area of high pressure and dry weather are forecast to build in Friday, and according to latest models, this gradually evolving system will remain over the region through the weekend and into Monday. For late Monday, low pressure lifting from the south may bring a few showers south of Cincinnati. Temperatures start 15 degrees below normal Thursday when highs are forecast to reach about 50. A slow rise toward normal will then be evident, with highs climbing through the 50s Saturday and Sunday to the near normal mid 60s Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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An elongated low pressure system continues to slowly shift NE across southern Quebec and New England. As it pulls away from the Ohio Valley, high pressure is beginning to move in from the west. This is advecting drier air into the region, which is cutting off the llvl cloud deck which has plagued Ohio for much of the day. That being said, this clearing trend is quite slow, with MVFR clouds likely linger in the NE TAF sites (KCMH and KLCK) into the evening. As clouds clear (which is already taking place at KCVG and KLUK), conditions are improving to VFR which they should remain through much of the night. Another low pressure system will shift into the Ohio Valley by tomorrow afternoon, bringing with it the return of southerly winds and moisture. Cloud cover will begin to overtake Ohio, starting from the south, before daybreak tomorrow (Wednesday) morning, lowering to MVFR at the southern most TAF sites through the first half of the day Wednesday. CIGS will continue to deteriorate with rain moving back into the region after the end of the TAF period late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. West winds will continue to gust close to 30 kts at times through this afternoon. Winds will drop off tonight as the surface high builds into the area, but could increase again from the S (gusts 15 to 25 knots) during the afternoon Wednesday ahead of the approaching system. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday and then again Thursday. Wind gusts 25 kt or higher possible Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...JMW SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...JMW

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