762
FXUS61 KILN 171854
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
254 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After showers that remain possible through tonight and isolated
activity indicated briefly Saturday afternoon, a dry forecast is
in store through Tuesday night. With this dry period,
temperatures will increase relatively quickly and end up 10
degrees or slightly more from climatological normals on Tuesday
and overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Primarily stratiform rain to the southeast of I-71  will
continue to move south-southeast this afternoon. Northwestern
CWA from Delaware to Kenton and then southwestward to Richmond
and Indianapolis will keep a threat of shower activity this
late day and evening, potentially lingering past midnight. This
is firing along a weak boundary and could contain thunder in
stronger storms. Overnight showers that linger will be due to a surface
inverted trough nosing into northwest Ohio from northern IN
Coupled with scattered pockets of strong upward motion noted at
H7. Southern CWA will maintain a rain/shower threat as well,
but should be lacking the necessary ingredients for putting
thunder in the forecast.

Upstream in IN and IL, a good bit of fog was noted this morning.
In the wake of today`s weather, a significantly moist lower
atmosphere, and light winds, areas of fog were noted across the
CWA for a few hours before and a little after daybreak.

Overnight lows will drop to around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Some few indications of widely scattered/isolated showers are
apparent for Saturday. If this is the case, earlier development
should be in southern forecast area, Afternoon heating will
prompt what showers that may occur later in the day, at any
location in the CWA, ending quickly with the setting sun.

Highs will warm fairly uniformly to around 80, and lows will be
again within a degree or so on either side of 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Narrow ridging on Sunday will give way to broader ridging in
the southeastern states on Monday, and eventually a more active
WSW flow pattern from the central plains through the Ohio Valley
by the middle of the week. Monday appears likely to be dry, as
any forcing will still be upstream of the area. By Tuesday,
quite a bit of instability will be building into the Ohio
Valley, with deep-layer SSW flow and surface dewpoints getting
well into the 60s. However, forcing will still be mainly
upstream of the area, so convection will be limited -- perhaps
more likely to occur in the northern and northwestern sections
of the CWA. The more concerning period of the forecast will be
some time in the Tuesday night through Wednesday night time
frame, as a cold front is expected to overtake this increasingly
unstable air mass. The timing forecast for this front is far
from certain at this distance in the forecast cycle -- and the
juxtaposition of the boundary layer conditions with an expected
fast-moving shortwave will also be key to the forecast. However,
at this point, it is fair to say that there will be some
potential for severe weather in the middle of next week. A drier
and cooler air mass will follow the front to end the week.

The Sun-Mon-Tue period is expected to be rather warm, with
highs well into the 80s each day. Temperatures on Wednesday are
a lower confidence forecast, as this will be dependent on
convection and frontal timing. If the front has not yet moved
into the area, then another day in the 80s is likely.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rainfall activity over the region and terminals has
significantly decreased and continues this trend regarding the
lingering rain from this morning, primarily in the south.
However, scattered shower activity is noted to occur in the
northwest half of the CWA and central Ohio and could last for a
while into the evening. Closer to and north of the Ohio River,
isolated showers have a lower probability of occurring in the
evening according to most model guidance. Was not confident
 this would affect CVG/LUK enough to indicate as VCSH so
forecast is precip-free for now. Potential development later
today will be addressed with amendments, likely when storms
begin to develop and have a trackable movement.

While a stronger signal for afternoon activity lasting into the
evening and possibly a little while after midnight is found in
the northwestern CWA, placement and extent of activity will be
difficult to nail down. Current showers have begun to form along
a boundary noted extending from Hardin and northern Delaware
County, southwestward to western Indianapolis. Indications are
lacking that this line might move south enough to affect DAY
and/or CMH/LCK tonight.

Until and unless showers or isolated thunderstorms have a chance
to affect a terminal, conditions through the evening will be
VFR with some scattered cu underneath a fairly extensive AS
deck.

After midnight, the moist boundary layer and light winds will
likely see fog develop area-wide. Have accounted for this and
relied heavily on MOS guidance for which category cigs/vsbys
would stand a better chance of dropping to. Upstream of us
earlier this morning was noted an expansive field of LIFR fog.
Any terminal may drop to LIFR between about 09Z and 13Z, with
the better chances noted for DAY and CVG/LUK. Kept ILN and
CMH/LCK mixed with VFR MVFR and IFR during this time.

Fog should lift and mix out in favor of partly cloudy skies on
Saturday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks