Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 291137
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
637 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy skies and dry weather to continue until the end of the
week as surface high pressure settles in over the region.
Precipitation chances increase Friday night into Saturday along
the Ohio River as a low pressure passes to the south. Above
average temperatures are forecast for the next seven days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure passing to the north promotes light
northeast flow over the area today with another day full of
extensive cloud cover. Temperatures struggle to rise once again
with mid 30s (north) and lower 40s to the south.

Attention then shifts to a weak mid-level trough approaching the
Ohio Valley Wednesday evening. While previous forecasts have
included light snow showers or flurries across the south,
decided to keep forecast dry given plentiful guidance suggesting
dry air and weak lift. Can`t completely rule out a stray flurry
south of the Ohio River, but that`s about it. Nighttime
temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s by Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure continues to build to the north, keeping
flow weak and variable across the area. Behind the shortwave
trough, upper level ridging builds in from the west, potentially
providing a few peaks of sunshine during the afternoon hours.
Otherwise, Thursday is featured by dry weather and another day
of above average temperatures. Mid to upper 30s are forecast
across the north with low 40s across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Period begins with a weak shortwave ridge over the Ohio Valley. This
will lead to dry but cloudy conditions Thursday night.

Forecast confidence is low for Friday and Saturday. Models agree
in pushing a longwave trof into the Mississippi Valley on Friday.
However, there are numerous timing differences along with
differences in the amount of phasing between the northern and
southern streams. Will run a blend and will bring low rain chances
into the southeastern half of the fa. Highs will be above normal,
ranging from the upper 30s in West Central Ohio to the mid 40s along
the Ohio River.  A s/w in the nrn stream, will swing through the
Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. The ECMWF is the strongest
with this s/w. Will trend for a slightly weaker blended solution
which keeps low PoPs over the region. Temperatures drop enough
Friday night for a rain/snow mix, but they warm enough to change
ptype back to rain on Saturday.

The system exits Saturday night and is replaced by a building upper
ridge on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be about 10 degrees above
normal as they warm to the mid 40s to lower 50s. The ridge will
continue to build Monday. Highs will surge to the lower to upper 50s
on Monday.

Shortwave in the southwest flow will kick out of the MS Valley
Monday night into Tuesday, bringing rain chances to the region.
Temperatures will remain mild for the beginning of February.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As expected, the majority of the TAF issues overnight and early
this morning are ceilings hovering around 2kft, especially for
the eastern 4 locations. KCMH and KLCK have comfortably been
closer to 3kft for most of the overnight and this is expected to
continue.

For the 12Z forecast package, light and variable flow is
forecast throughout with the dominant flow most likely out of
the northeast or east. MVFR ceilings also remains in the
forecast throughout with the best chance to break out of MVFR to
VFR for eastern TAF sites as northeast flow attempts to usher in
drier air. Western sites may also briefly climb out to VFR
ceilings, however, MFVR conditions return overnight tonight.
Regardless, there are some signs that the persistent stratus
will gradually break up during the day on Thursday, especially
during the afternoon.

While area radars still show some drizzle/flurries around, no
recent observations have carried wx so stayed consistent by
leaving only mentions of BR in the first portion of the forecast
this morning.

OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings possible Friday and Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...McGinnis



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