Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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418 FXUS61 KILN 140756 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 256 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A mid level trough will move east, then southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through tonight. High pressure will begin to build in from the west on Friday. This high will then influence the area`s weather into the weekend. A weak cold front will move into the region Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... For today, a mid level trough will move east into the central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. Surface low pressure near northeast Illinois will weaken some as it moves to a position near northwest Ohio by this evening. The associated cold front extending south from the low will gradually push east into our region this afternoon into this evening. Widespread showers early on will transition to scattered to locally numerous showers as lift continues with the mid level trough and its associated pieces of energy rotating through it. Southeast winds will veer to the southwest and eventually west across the western CWFA by late afternoon as the front pushes in from the west. Winds will be gusty through early afternoon, then they will diminish as the pressure gradient weakens. It will be seasonably cool and damp with highs ranging from the lower 50s northeast to the upper 50s southwest. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... For tonight, the mid level trough will begin to drift southeast while the surface low weakens over Lake Erie. Low level moisture will remain in place, and some scattered shower activity will linger into at least the early morning hours. Winds will veer to the west and northwest. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 40s. For Friday, high pressure at the surface and aloft will begin to build in from the west. However, considerable low level moisture will linger over the region, resulting in mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. There will be a low chance of a shower across our far east. Highs will range from the lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will build in Friday night and then start to shift east of the area on Saturday. The next system will be a weak boundary that sags down into the area and washes out across the region Sunday night. Moisture is limited with this feature and for several days models have had a hard time resolving the details with this feature. Due to limited moisture and model variability, went close to the blend and limited precipitation chances to the slight chance and chance categories. Dry conditions are then expected for Monday and the first part of Tuesday. A much larger and stronger storm system starts to impact the region Tuesday afternoon. This will be the start of a pattern shift to eventually cooler weather and also a period of more unsettled weather with several days of precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through sunrise, a fairly decent mid level trough located over the upper to middle Mississippi River Valley will move east to the western Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. This mid level trough is accompanied by surface low pressure and a cold front which will remain west of the region. Copious moisture flowing northward ahead of the mid level trough will translate into showers, sometimes moderate to locally heavy at times, across the terminals. Ceilings will lower to IFR and visibilities will mainly be MVFR, though a few pockets of IFR can not be ruled out in heavier rainfall. There will be a low chance of a thunderstorms, especially along and south of the Ohio River. Southeast winds will increase to sustained 12 to 18 knots with gusts between 20 and 28 knots. With a low level jet, there is a marginal threat for LLWS, but it appears that it should remain below thresholds to not include in the terminals. For today, the mid level trough will continue east into the central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. Surface low pressure near northeast Illinois will weaken some as it moves to a position near northwest Ohio by 00Z Friday. The associated cold front extending south from the low will gradually push east into our region this afternoon into this evening. Widespread showers early on will transition to scattered to locally numerous showers as lift continues with the mid level trough and its associated pieces of energy rotating through it. Ceilings will vary between MVFR and IFR while visibilities lift back to VFR out side of showers (MVFR visibilities expected in showers). Southerly winds 12 to 18 knots with gusts between 20 and 25 knots will diminish by 18Z as the low approaches and the pressure gradient weakens some. Winds will veer to the southwest and eventually west across the western terminals by late afternoon as the front pushes in from the west. For Thursday night, the mid level trough will begin to drift southeast while the surface low weakens over Lake Erie. Low level moisture will remain in place, and some scattered shower activity will linger into at least the early morning hours. Ceilings will vary between MVFR and IFR with some pockets of LIFR possible across central Ohio. Visibilities will vary between VFR and MVFR. Winds will veer to the west and northwest between 5 and 8 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings to linger into Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman