Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 290553
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
153 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area early this morning. It
will then become windy during the day. Much cooler air will
filter into the area with below normal temperatures Monday
through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms have raced out well ahead of the front
and will move east of the forecast area in the next hour or two.
There may still be some convection along and ahead of the front
late tonight but the coverage is expected to be minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Southwesterly winds are forecast to strengthen after the cold
front passes through the Ohio Valley on Sunday morning. A
strengthening pressure gradient in combination with cold air
advection and daytime mixing will likely result in sustained
winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 50 mph. The strongest
winds are expected across the northern two thirds of the CWA. A
wind advisory has been issued for the strong winds.

With cold air advection and strong winds in place, highs are
not expected to rise much. Forecast highs may be early in the
day in some locations. Expecting highs in the upper 50s in
western Ohio/eastern Indiana and upper 60s in southern Ohio.
Cold air advection continues into Sunday night as winds start to
weaken. Forecast lows are in the 40s areawide and surface
ridging strengthens.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Though we may escape headline events, weaker systems may bring
unsettled weather from time to time.

Surface high pressure forming behind an upper low should provide dry
weather on Monday. Low pressure driven by a rather potent upper
trough will produce rain chances Tuesday, especially in southern
locations closer to the track of the surface low. Isolated showers
may persist Wednesday through Friday in lingering moisture behind
the low, aided by weak mid level short wave energy. A better chance
for showers may exist Saturday when a cold front is forecast to
advance from the west.

Pattern featuring geopotential heights a bit below average suggests
temperatures a few to several degrees below normal. Look for highs
ranging in the upper 40s north to around 60 south on Monday. Expect
a retreat to the mid and upper 40s Tuesday, then back up the the 50s
Wednesday through Friday, before dropping to the 40s again on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will move out of the Columbus area
very early in the period. Cannot rule out some additional storms
across the region before a cold front sweep across the
terminals between 10Z and 13Z, but at this point the chance
looks quite low. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is also
possible before frontal passage. Winds will become southwest and
increase substantially after the front passes. Strong gusty
winds will continue through the day and gradually subside around
or after 00Z. Some stratocumulus will occur during the day but
expect any ceilings to be VFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080.
     Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ045-046-
     054>056.
KY...None.
IN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell/Sites
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...



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