Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 140755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
355 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak, but dry cold front will move east across the area
tonight into Monday. High pressure will build back into the
Great Lakes Monday night. Another cold front will bring the next
chance of rain to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
In the wake of a cold dry frontal passage this morning, west
winds at the surface and northwest winds aloft will usher in
colder air. This cold advection will overcome any heating from
what should be abundant sunshine today. Highs will range from
the mid 50s in the north to the lower 60s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move across the region tonight. Under mainly
clear skies and light to calm winds, temperatures will drop
into the upper 30s to around 40. Some patchy frost will be
possible over the northern half of the CWA but a little less
than previously forecast given a slight bump in overnight lows.
Continue to keep mention of frost in the HWO.

After the high slides east, south flow will return and Tuesday
will see highs uniformly around 70 with increasing cloud cover
from the west late in the day.

Clouds will rapidly increase in the evening and showers will
spread east overnight, primarily between midnight and daybreak,
a little earlier in the west and a little later in the east.
Energetic system with significant h5 vorticity maxima found may
produce a few thunderstorms as the line associated with the
front crosses.

Overnight lows will be in the lower 40s behind the front, but
the eastern Scioto Valley and parts of Kentucky east of
Maysville may still be in the upper 40s to around 50 with the
front crossing around daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended period begins with a cold front just east of the
region. Models are lingering some showers post frontal across
the fa. This precipitation will pull east by mid-morning.
However, post frontal caa around a deep surface low in southeast
Canada will keep an extensive cloud deck across the region
Wednesday. There could be some cold advection showers across the
northern third of the fa during the afternoon hours. A tight
pressure gradient around the surface low will also bring a
blustery west wind. Temperatures will only recover into the mid
50s on Wednesday.

High pressure will begin to build in Wednesday night. As this
occurs, the winds will lighten up. Drier air filters in breaking
up the clouds.

The region will see dry conditions Thursday and Friday with the
high pressure in control. A warming trend will begin Thursday
with highs in the upper 50s. Southerly flow will increase on
Friday pushing highs into the mid 60s.

Saturday looks like it will stay dry, with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s, but then rain chances will begin to increase
Saturday night into Sunday as warm front lifts across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally clear skies are expected through the forecast.
Southwest winds early this morning will turn west around 5-6kt
as the front moves through. Kept CVG and LUK west at this speed
through the forecast as they will not see the higher wind speed
during the day as sites further north will.

Other TAF sites will see some gusty west winds today then calm
down later in the day for a light/variable or calm overnight
period, again with generally clear skies.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Franks


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