Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 240124
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
924 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the region will bring dry and cool
conditions through the end of the work week as it tracks east
towards New England by Friday. The weather will become
unsettled into the weekend as multiple disturbances affect the
Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Clear skies will prevail in a nicely dry airmass tonight as lows
drop to the lower 30s. A northerly wind around 5-7 mph overnight
will preclude most frost development tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will continue to build southeast toward
the area overnight. With a dry airmass in place, expect a
continuation of mostly clear skies tonight. Overnight lows will
be in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level and surface ridges to slide off to the east offering
continued dry weather with an increase in clouds Thursday.
Temperatures look to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal with highs
Thursdays highs generally around 50.

Flow backs ahead of a mid level trof with favorable isentropic lift
developing Friday. Will allow rain to overspread the area with the
highest pops (likely) over the southeast. Cool temperatures to
continue with Fridays highs near 50.

Initial shortwave and surface to pivot east but elongated mid level
trof to remain over the area offering a continued low pop chance of
a shower Saturday/Saturday night. Continued cool readings with
Saturdays highs in the lower 50s.

Models fairly consistent showing a s/w rotating into the mean trof
position over the Ohio Valley late in the weekend. This should
enhance pcpn chances late Sunday. Cool weather to continue with
highs Sunday around 50.

This trof shifts east with Northwest flow developing and surface
high pressure building into the area Monday night. Will diminish
pcpn chances Monday with highs again near 50.

Surface high pressure to build across the area Tuesday, offering
dry weather with high temperatures in the mid and upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the
region through Wednesday. This will result in mainly clear skies
and VFR conditions through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks/JGL
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL



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