Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 170228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1028 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will remain in place over the
northeastern states, with below normal temperatures continuing
across the Ohio Valley. Warmer temperatures and increasing
chances for rain are expected over the weekend, as another area
of low pressure moves in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Clearing skies through this evening, with light NNE flow as the
region remains on the backside of a trough of low pressure over
WV. Patchy fog is still anticipated to develop, and already
seeing some visibility restrictions in SE Ohio. Expecting some
locally dense fog in some of the river valley areas with very
light winds and a developing inversion late tonight, with
surface dewpoints across the south to remain in the lower 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
There is very little change to the weather pattern from Tuesday
to Wednesday, with the surface trough still in place to the
southeast, and broad northwest flow over the Ohio Valley (with
the upper low still to the northeast). Once again, some very
weak instability could develop in the afternoon, resulting in
isolated showers (and possibly a storm). Most locations will
probably remain dry, and activity is expected to dissipate in
the evening. With no real change in air mass, similar highs are
expected -- upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main mid level trough will be rotating northeast away from New
England while another mid level closed low digs southeast into
the upper Mississippi River Valley Thursday into Friday. Our
region will be between these two systems with a broad surface
ridge moving in from west on Thursday and passing to the east on
Friday. We should be able to maintain a dry forecast for the
period, although some moisture will try to encroach the southern
zones late on Friday. Highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s
will warm some into the lower and mid 80s by Friday.

Aforementioned mid level closed low will rotate slowly southeast
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for the upcoming weekend.
Increasing moisture transport on low level south to southwest flow
will interact with the mid level low, resulting in chances for
showers and thunderstorms, with the highest threat arriving on
Sunday. Highs in the lower to mid 80s on Saturday will cool slightly
on Sunday due to clouds/pcpn. Lows will remain warm in the 60s due
to clouds and higher humidity.

Unsettled weather is forecast for the beginning of next week as the
system slowly moves east through the region. It will eventually
bring a weak cold front southeast. Will have to continue with
chances for showers and thunderstorms with the highest chances
occurring during the peak heating cycle. Lows will remain in the 60s
with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Outside of some of the more vulnerable locations for visibility
restrictions, VFR conditions expected through the period. Most
of the visibility restrictions will remain over south central
Ohio/NE Kentucky, away from most TAF sites, with the exception
of KLUK/KLCK/KILN. Somewhat diurnally driven isolated showers
will impact mainly just KLUK in the early part of the period,
but VFR cloud levels and no visibility restrictions.

Clouds will dissipate overnight, and with very light winds and a
favorable radiational cooling set up, MVFR visibility expected
at KILN/KLCK, and continued the TEMPO IFR at KLUK in the 09-12z
timeframe.

Northeast winds are expected to remain around 10 knots or less
through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible on Thursday morning, with thunderstorms
possible on Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...JDR


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