Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 062312

National Weather Service Wilmington OH
612 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

A cold front is passing through the area this afternoon with
rain showers clearing the Ohio River by evening. High pressure
and a drier, seasonable air mass will build into the region for
the weekend. A low pressure system will lift up across the Great
Lakes region Sunday night into Monday, bringing another chance
of precipitation to start off the work week.


A cold front moving through the area today has resulted in a
concentration of light rain primarily south of I-70 with
sprinkles to the north. Any remnant showers clear the southeast
by late this afternoon with scattered stratocumulus remaining
through the evening. Clouds clear overnight and temperatures
cool into the mid to lower 20s area wide as surface high
pressure builds in from the northwest.


Surface high pressure moves east across the region during the
day on Saturday. This leads to mostly clear skies and dry
conditions. Winds are forecast to be weak and temperatures will
be seasonable with highs on Saturday in the low to mid 40s.

Upper level clouds stream in from the northwest late in the day
but nighttime low temperatures are still expected to drop into
the lower 30s (west) and upper 20s (east).


The region will be in southwest low level flow at the beginning
of the extended as the area is located between a retreating
high pressure center located over the east coast and a cold
front in the western Great Lakes into the plains.

With the southerly flow, broad isentropic lift will begin to
affect the region on Sunday. The NAM continues to produce the
light rain showers across the area, while the operational GFS
and ECMWF keep the region dry. Will keep continuity and will
have a 20 PoP on Sunday only for the Cinci Tri-State.

Sunday night into Monday an approaching cold front will
increase the lift and rain will become more widespread. Highs
Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s as the region is on the
warm side of the front.

Models are still showing some minor differences in the strength
and location of the surface low that is driving the cold front.
However, they are in pretty good agreement on the timing of the
frontal passage. General consensus is that fropa will be late
Monday night. With a strong arctic airmass behind the front, it
is looking like temperatures will fall on Tuesday. A change over
from rain to snow will accompany the change in airmass. With
the strong cold air advection will linger flurries Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

Well below normal temperatures are forecast for Wednesday as
the arctic high builds into the region. Morning lows will be in
the teens to lower 20s Wednesday morning, and highs will only
recover into the mid 20s to lower 30s in the afternoon.

On Thursday the center of the high will slide off to the east
and the airmass will begin moderating. Highs Thursday are
forecast to be in the upper 20s to upper 30s. The warming trend
will continue into Friday as highs will push into the upper 30s
to lower 40s.


A cold front has moved through the area, and winds have shifted
to the north at all TAF sites. Rain has also come to an end, and
any remaining MVFR ceilings at KCVG/KLUK/KILN will dissipate in
the next hour or two. Through the rest of the TAF period, skies
are expected to remain VFR and mostly clear, mainly with just
some high clouds.

With very light north to northeast winds and clear skies
tonight, some MVFR/IFR fog appears possible at KLUK.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday
night through Tuesday. Gusty winds are possible Monday night
into Tuesday.




NEAR TERM...McGinnis
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