Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 181040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
540 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue today through Wednesday as high
pressure moves to the Atlantic Coast. Low pressure developing to
the south is forecast to bring rain Thursday and Friday. High
pressure and dry air are expected for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface analysis shows 1025 mb high pressure centered over
Illinois, just east of the axis of an upper ridge. The surface
high will be pushed by a westerly flow aloft across Indiana to
Ohio by this afternoon. This will keep the ILN area free from
precip and most clouds due to subsidence and dry air associated
with the high. Once river valley fog burns off by mid morning,
skies will be sunny with sky cover consisting of cirrus. That
insolation should help temperatures rise a bit above normal,
with highs reaching the lower 40s in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather will persist as surface high pressure travels across
Pennsylvania to the Atlantic Coast. Cloud cover will increase
Wednesday as moisture and lift arrive on a southerly flow ahead
of low pressure developing over Louisiana. Warm advection on
that southerly flow will bring high temperatures up close to 50,
about 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model solutions in general agreement with amplifying upper trough,
and surface low developing over the Gulf coast Wednesday night. Flow
backs across the Ohio Valley with weak isentropic lift developing
toward sunrise Thursday. Therefore, will limit pcpn to a low pop
chance of rain late Wednesday night.

Surface low pressure to eject northeast up the Appalachians east of
the mid/upper level low. Moisture will increase ahead of this system
with widespread rain developing by Thursday evening. The best chance
for pcpn will occur over ILN/s southeast counties Thursday night.

As the mid level trof axis shifts east the deep moisture will push
off to the east later Friday. As cold advection develops the rain
will mix with a snow on the back edge of the exiting pcpn Friday
night prior to ending. GEFS solutions show a good spread in pcpn
amounts with generally one half to three quarters of an inch as a
mean total. Any snow looks to be minor and less than an inch.
Pressure gradient tightens up and with low level lapse rates
steepening - winds look to become blustery Friday afternoon into
Friday night. Momentum transfer technique suggests wind gusts up to
30 kts possible.

Surface high pressure to offer dry weather Saturday. A weak, quick
moving shortwave and associated surface low may bring a few rain and
snow showers late Sunday into Sunday night.

Mid level flow backs zonal develops with surface high pressure
offering dry weather Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BR has developed at LUK early this morning, reducing
visibilities to LIFR. Other sites have remained VFR. Once BR
burns off by 14z, expect VFR and light winds to persist under
high pressure. Wind direction will veer from northeast to
southeast as the high travels east. Sky cover in the very dry
airmass will consist of a few cirrus. Clouds will begin to
increase at CVG late in their 30 hour forecast in advance of low
pressure forming to the south.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
from Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio


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