Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 190811
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
411 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional showers and thunderstorms will continue across much
of the area this morning. A chance of showers will then be
possible through Monday until a cold front moves through the
Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier, cooler airmass will
settle into the region for Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to train east
southeast across the region this morning with the storms still
lined up all the back to the west into central IA. These are
occurring along the nose of an elongated west to east oriented
925 low level jet which is forecast to continue to shift east
through mid morning before beginning to decrease. As a result,
expect to see an extended period of showers and storms persist
across much of our central and southern areas through the
morning hours. The northern extent remains somewhat in doubt
though as the storms back to the west across central Illinois
into central Indiana look like they may be oriented a little
farther north. Rainfall rates of one to locally two inches an
hour will remain possible through mid morning with the stronger
storms with flash flooding concerns continuing with any extended
training. Given the uncertainty of the northern extent of the
pcpn, have opted to keep the FFA as is for now but the area of
greatest concern for flash flooding will remain across about
the southwest half of our fa this morning.

The morning convection will likely grunge us out into early
afternoon with some question then as to how much temperatures
will recover through the rest of the day. Will generally go with
highs in the low to mid 80s. This will also lead to some
uncertainty with the amount of destabilization through the
afternoon hours. Assuming we are able to destabilize enough,
would expect to see some isolated to scattered shower/
thunderstorm development later this afternoon. There will still
be a fair amount of deeper layer shear present so a few strong
to severe storms will be possible if things do get going, with
damaging wind being the main threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Will continue with a chance of showers and thunderstorms into
tonight before tapering them back off late tonight into Sunday
morning. We will then destabilize again through the day on
Sunday as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s through
the afternoon. This will likely result in some isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon, with
the best chances across our northwest, closer to some short
wave energy moving into the southern Great Lakes and an
associated cold front approaching from the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front will push southeast across the region Monday into
Monday night. Ahead of this, expect widespread shower and
thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon into early
evening. Highs on Monday will range from the lower 80s in the
northwest to the upper 80s in the southeast. Pcpn will taper
off from the northwest Monday night as drier air moves in behind
the front.

Surface high pressure and a cooler, drier airmass will settle
into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday
will only by in the upper 60s to lower 70s. We will then
gradually warm Wednesday into Thursday as the surface high
shifts off to the east with temperatures by Thursday back to
near normal with highs mostly in the lower 80s. Short wave
energy approaching from the west will bring the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms toward Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to track east southeast
across the area through much of the morning hours, especially
across eastern Indiana, northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio.
It looks like the central Ohio TAF sites may remain somewhat on
the fringe of the better activity. We will then likely dry out
for a bit on the backside of this activity late this morning
into early afternoon before some additional scattered showers
and thunderstorms develop later in the day, possibly continuing
into the evening hours.

.OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Monday

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for OHZ042-051>055-
     060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for KYZ091>093.
     Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075.
     Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JGL


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