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000
FXUS61 KILN 060545
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1245 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Light precipitation will be decreasing in coverage tonight as
low pressure exits to the east. High pressure will then build
into the area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to drier
conditions and a gradual warming trend through the end of the
work week. The next chance of precipitation will arrive this
weekend as another low pressure system moves from the Plains
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Evening update...
Low pressure continues to shift out of the area this evening
with only a few locations still observing scattered rain showers
or drizzle. High pressure squeezing in from the west results in
increasing northerly flow overnight to around 8-13 mph,
dropping temperatures into the 20s as drier air works into the
area. Breaks in the clouds are possible by sunrise Wednesday
morning with elevated flow causing wind chills in the lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build into the middle Ohio
Valley on Wednesday. This will allow some breaks in the
clouds... especially across the south. Highs will reach into the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Winds become southwesterly Wednesday night as the surface high
shunts to the east. A shortwave moving across the Great Lakes
will provide mostly cloudy skies, though precipitation should
remain to our north. Low temperatures will dip to around 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level ridging will develop and amplify as a trough digs into the
central part of the county late this week. At the surface, this will
bring an extended period of southerly flow resulting in mild, dry,
breezy conditions.

Guidance continues to show a decent spread in amplitude and speed of
the trough as it ejects eastward over the weekend. Even with the
uncertainty that goes along with this, it does seem that the
probability of the associated cold front staying west of the area
through Saturday night is higher than it passing before 12Z Sunday.
So have cautiously bumped up Saturday night lows, recognizing that
there is potential for it to be considerably warmer. Showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms will occur as this system moves
through. In the wake of the front, temperatures will fall and wind
gusts will increase. Have bumped up winds for Sunday afternoon and
evening to the higher end of the guidance envelope.

Flow will transition to being more zonal and at the surface high
pressure will build in for the latter part of the period.
Temperatures will be close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGs remain in place in the wake of yesterday`s low
pressure passage. Recent satellite nighttime microphysics
imagery depicting some clearing over Michigan moving southeast
into our area. Current thinking is that this will fill in with a
BKN layer of low clouds that are low end VFR. Therefore, have
trended CIGs upwards to a VFR deck by Wednesday morning.

Winds are actually expected to increase slightly overnight,
around 8-10 knots out of the north/northwest. By Wednesday
morning, these back to westerly at the same intensity before
ultimately becoming southwesterly around 5-8 knots Wednesday
evening.


OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA