Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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498 FXUS61 KILN 200539 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 139 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A wavy east-west front will remain near the region into Tuesday. This will result in a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build in by mid week bringing drier conditions to the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... There is still some very isolated activity affecting northern portions of our area this evening. this has been weakening though and expect this trend to continue over the next couple of hours as we continue lose the diurnal enhancement. It looks like any convection off to our west should remain out of our area through the overnight hours so will otherwise keep the forecast dry through the remainder of the night. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s north to the lower to mid 60s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Convection that occurs west of the region tonight may hold together long enough to affect part of the forecast area early Sunday morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in this regard, and even if it does make it into the area, it will be weakening quickly. So no hazardous weather is expected in the morning. In the wake of any remnants, the atmosphere will recover through the day. An east-west front will bisect the area. Along and south of the front it will become very unstable with CAPE likely 3000+ J/kg. Expect storms to develop along the boundary, most likely mid afternoon, and potentially move into the more unstable air. This unstable air will be along the southern periphery of the better bulk shear which may provide a zone for some storm organization. Just given the amount of instability forecast, there will be the potential for severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. In addition, the very moist airmass remains in place, so heavy rain and localized flooding will be possible as well. Storms may continue into the early evening before moving out of the forecast area. Additional showers and thunderstorms may move in from the west late Sunday night as a disturbance lifts into the Great Lakes. Above normal temperatures will continue. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Active weather pattern to continue through early next week with ILN/s FA on the periphery of mid/upper level ridging. Frontal boundary to remain across the area late this weekend into Monday. This will keep high chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Warm temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal with highs Monday from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south. Mid level shortwave and associated surface wave to track through the Great Lakes Tuesday. Associated surface front to drop southeast through the Ohio Valley. This will offer a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms. Warm temperatures to continue with Tuesdays highs from the upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast. Northwest flow aloft to develop with surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes. A few lingering showers in the southeast early Wednesday, otherwise expect dry weather. Expect highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The surface high will build east with continued dry weather Thursday. Above normal temperatures with highs from near 80 north to the lower 80s south. Dry weather to continue into Friday with flow backing ahead of a developing trof Friday night into Saturday. Will hold off any mention of pcpn until Friday night and then mention chance pops across the area Saturday. Expect highs Friday generally between 80 and 85. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Boundary combined with humid airmass will produce some aviation weather concerns. Isolated showers this morning will probably not impact airports directly. BR and FG will reduce visibilities under light winds. For this afternoon into this evening, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of TAF sites. Strong wind gusts and lowered visibilities may occur with some thunderstorms but it is too soon to pinpoint timing and location. Latest models show that convection may be slow to dissipate late in the period, so kept vcsh after 00z. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Coniglio

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