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011
FXUS61 KILN 300756
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
356 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to push east
through the area today as a cold front crosses the region. High
pressure will then build in for the middle of the week with the
return of much above normal temperatures. Another cold front
will move toward the area on Friday bringing the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Southwesterly flow aloft with shortwave axis pivoting thru the
Ohio Valley by early afternoon. Band of pre-frontal showers and
a few embedded thunderstorms associated with low level theta-e
advection have encroached into ILN/s western counties. As
instability continues to wane the chances for thunderstorm
activity will continue to decrease - with mainly showers moving
east thru the area this morning.

Pcpn will begin to taper off from the west early this morning as
the cold front moves into the area. These showers will continue
moving off to the east this morning but with there could be some
additional scattered development in the far eastern counties
early this aftn as the slow moving front finally moves thru the
area.

Clouds will decrease during the afternoon from west to east
giving way to mostly sunny sky conditions. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 70s
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Mid level flow turns westerly with surface high pressure
building into the region tonight. Skies will become clear
with light winds overnight. Lows tonight fall into the upper
40s to lower 50s.

Mid level ridging begins to build into the area Wednesday
offering dry weather and warmer temperatures. High temperatures
to range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. These readings
are about 10 degrees above normal.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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H5 ridge axis remains firmly planted across the Midwest region
Wednesday night. Continued ridge amplification continues into
Thursday, with height rises leading to warmer daytime highs in the
lower to middle 80s. With surface flow still having an easterly
component to it, dewpoints will be fairly reasonable, primarily in
the 50s for most. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry at
the surface through Thursday and likely Thursday night.

Mean ridge axis translates eastward as we head into Friday. A
longwave trough will be positioned across a large portion of the
western and central CONUS. A shortwave embedded in this trough will
propagate through the Ohio Valley on Friday. This will lead to
favorable chances for showers and some thunderstorms as well given
the influx of marginal instability.

Depending on timing of this upper level feature, some precip will
linger into Saturday. This far out, it is still uncertain how long
precip will linger, but it seems that by Saturday night that we will
briefly dry back out. As of now, Sunday is trending drier across our
fa as the primary shortwave ejects eastward. However, it does appear
that another shortwave feature will usher in precip to our fa again
on Monday.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An axis of widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
will slowly overspread the TAF/s early this morning from the
west ahead of an approaching cold front.

As marginal instability wanes thunder chances will continue to
taper off, so have omitted the mention of thunder at any TAF
site.

Showers will begin to taper off from the west as the cold front
moves in toward sunrise. VFR cigs will drop into MVFR with a
brief period of IFR possible toward sunrise (mainly across KDAY).
MVFR cigs to continue through mid morning before scattering out
with VFR conditions developing this afternoon. VFR conditions
to continue into tonight as weak high pressure builds in.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms and MVFR cigs possible Friday afternoon
into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR