Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200007 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 807 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will bring precipitation to the area tonight. On the northern edge of the precipitation a wintry mix is possible. As the low moves into the Appalachians, the precipitation will pull in colder area bringing accumulating snow to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... H5 s/w will move out of the plains and into srn Ohio tonight. Ahead of the s/w, a sfc low will slip east through Kentucky. Rain will push into the sw corner of the fa shortly after 00Z, then will lift north through the night. By 12Z Tuesday, the band will be around the I-70 corridor. Thicknesses will be warm enough for the pcpn to fall as rain. The tricky part of the forecast is the low temperature forecast. How far south will the freezing temperatures make it, as this is where a chance of some freezing rain will set up. The overall trend of the models was for temperatures tonight to be a little warmer, but the raw NAM was bringing the freezing temps well south of day, setting up a band of significant freezing rain. Went with a blended low temperature forecast, which is a little warmer. But a light area of freezing rain/rain from the nrn Whitewater Valley up through DAY into Union County Ohio is still possible. Will cover this with a SPS, as the ground temperatures have warmed and the last freezing rain system, produced only a few impacts. Lows tonight will range form the extreme nw to lower 40s in the lower Scioto Valley and ne KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The surface low tracks in the Appalachians on Tuesday. The deformation band of pcpn, lingers in the north Tuesday morning, before it starts pivoting to the northeast. Across the southern part of the area, the pcpn will be more scattered in nature during the morning hours. The pcpn will transition to rain during the day. Late Tuesday afternoon into early evening a reinforcing shot of cold air will begin to push southeast out of Canada in the form of another shortwave. As this happens rain will start to mix with snow in the northwest, then the rain/snow line drops southeast through the region. Snowfall amounts could be a couple of inches around the I-71 corridor by the end of the period, with a little less across the rest of the fa. Will issue a WW Advisory to cover the snow threat. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Snow will be ongoing at the start of the long term on Wednesday with the surface low situated just southeast of the area. Some additional snowfall accumulations will be likely on Wednesday during the day, however some accumulations may be offset during the daytime hours due to the time of the year. Snow will begin to taper off through the day as the area of low pressure moves away from the area. With cloud cover and snow, continued the trend of going cooler and below guidance for high temperatures on Wednesday. In addition winds will continue to gust with wind gusts upwards of 30 mph possible. Additional snow showers will be possible during the overnight hours Wednesday night across southwestern portions of the region as an upper level disturbance works down into that area. Due to some uncertainty with the placement of this disturbance decided to limit precipitation chances to a slight chance at this time. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place for Thursday and Friday. The next system will then work into the region for the weekend bringing a mix of rain snow to the area. There are some model discrepancies on when precipitation will begin to move into the region with the Monday into Monday night system, however expect most of the precipitation to hold off until Monday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Conditions will remain VFR through the early part of the TAF period. A band of rain will slowly spread north. With very dry air at the surface, it will take some time for lower clouds based to develop let along precipitation reaching the surface. Eventually, lower levels will moisten which will result in MVFR ceilings below 2000 ft at most locations. Temperatures may get to or just below freezing at KDAY, so a period of FZRA is forecast there for a few hours around 12Z. Precipitation will decrease in coverage during the day, although it is not out of the question to see some spotty showers or drizzle. MVFR ceilings will persist. Precipitation will start to blossom again late in the period with this likely being snow. Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt will back slightly during the day. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible again on Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM... AVIATION... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.