Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181457 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1057 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will provide dry weather today and tonight, before another area of low pressure brings precipitation to the region Monday afternoon into Wednesday.
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Only a few tweaks to the forecast this morning. High pressure will provide plenty of sunshine. Nudged high temperatures up a degree this afternoon, but still expect highs to range from the lower 50s in the north to lower 50s in nrn KY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Tonight, surface high pressure will begin to pull east with a mid level low ejecting across Oklahoma. Monday morning will remain dry and not until Monday afternoon into evening will the core of the mid level wave move into western Kentucky. The system has been slowly trending south over the last couple of days with the best upper level diffluence now located over Kentucky. Most of the PVA also keeps south. As of now have just trended the best chances of precipitation further south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A surface low pressure system will move east out of the Tennessee Valley Monday night. Our area will be on the northern edge of the precipitation associated with this feature and we may end up with a fairly tight pop gradient north to south across our area. As a result, will keep categorical pops going along and south of the Ohio River through Monday evening and then taper pops back fairly quickly farther north. Thermal profiles support mainly rain with this initial wave, but if the northern extent of the precipitation does make it up into northern portions of our fa, we would be cold enough there for a rain/snow mix or even all snow across our far north Monday night. Precipitation should then taper off as we progress through the rest of Monday night as the low continues to move off to the east. An elongated upper level trough with some embedded mid level energy will push east across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. This will allow for a secondary surface low to develop over the eastern Tennessee Valley with an inverted trough axis nosing up into our area. This will lead to an increasing chance of precipitation later Tuesday afternoon with precipitation then becoming widespread Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The 00Z deterministic ECMWF and GFS are actually in decent agreement with this feature with the highest pops looking to be across our southeast, although both the European and GFS ensembles seem to be suggesting a more northern axis to the better pcpn. At this point will go with a bit of a blend between the ensemble and deterministic solutions and bring fairly high pops into most of our area by Tuesday night. Precipitation should continue into Wednesday morning before then tapering off through the afternoon. Ptype will be difficult as thermal profiles indicate that we may be on the edge of rain and snow, particularly across our southeast. With the bulk of the more significant precipitation likely falling during the nighttime period, will trend toward more snow then rain. This will also make for a difficult accumulation forecast. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF are both suggesting the possibility of a narrow axis of several inches of snow Tuesday night across southern portions of our area. However, this exact area of heavier accumulation is tough to pin down this far out and with a lot of uncertainty with ptype, will lean more toward the ensemble solution and just go with a broad brushed inch or two of accumulation. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region for Thursday. However, a fast moving upper level disturbance and an associated surface low will push quickly east across the area Friday into Saturday, bringing an increasing chance of precipitation toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR expected through the issuance. Surface high pressure will move overhead today allowing for light and variable winds. Tonight, the high pressure will pull east with winds slowly increasing from the northeast and then east. Late Monday morning the next upper level disturbance will be approaching the area from the west allowing for increasing cloud cover. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Tuesday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.