Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181914 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 314 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather today and tonight, before another area of low pressure brings precipitation to the region Monday afternoon into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... The region will remain dry tonight as high pressure ridge begins to loosening its grip. High clouds will start to affect the region this evening. As a low pressure system develops in the plains tonight, H8 moisture begins to pool in Kentucky. Therefore more cloud coverage is expected in the far south as compared to the nrn half. Lows will be warmer tonight, ranging from the lower 30s in the north to the mid to upper 30s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 12Z run of the models have trended a little slower and farther south with the ejecting low and its precipitation. Therefore backed way off on PoPs for Monday. Dried out almost the entire fa, except for a slight chance in the Kentucky counties south of CVG. Highs will generally range from the upper 40s in the extreme north counties to the mid to upper 50s in the south. Monday night the H5 s/w ejects out through Kentucky, pushing a surface low through the TN valley. Precipitation will push into the southern half of the fa during the evening, then over the rest by morning. Precipitation starts as rain, but after 06Z surface temperatures in the north begin to drop to around or below freezing, as critical thicknesses drop. This will produce another round of wintry mix. The south will be a rain/sleet/freezing rain mix, while the north will be more of a snow/freezing rain mix. Accumulations of either snow or freezing rain will be very light. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... There will be a chance for a light mix of precipitation at the start of the long term Tuesday morning, however confidence is not high in precipitation type Tuesday morning. As temperature profiles warm, expect precipitation to change over to all rain during the day on Tuesday. Tuesday night an area of low pressure is expected to be situated just southeast of the forecast area. This area of low pressure has trended further north, increasing not only snowfall chances, but accumulations with snowfall as well. Cooler air will be brought into the region Tuesday night and expect precipitation to change over to all snow. With snowfall falling during the overnight hours Tuesday night there is a greater potential for snowfall to accumulate. Have over an inch of snow across most of the region with a large portion of the region expecting at least 2 to 3 inches of snow. There is the potential for some banding of snow so cannot rule out a swatch of larger values in excess of 4 inches for the entire event which will continue through the day on Wednesday and into Wednesday evening before tapering off. There are still some model discrepancies in the details of the system and therefore decided to stay away from some of the larger 4 inch values for now until there is more model run to run consistency. After this time dry conditions are expected for Thursday into Friday before another system brings a mix of rain and snow to the region for the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure ridge will gradually weaken overnight in response to low pressure developing in the plains. High clouds will begin to filter in after 00Z. In response to the developing sfc low, H8 moisture will begin to pool in Kentucky. Expect a VFR cig around 4-5kft to drift into CVG between 06Z-12Z. The H8 moisture will buckle around 12Z, and the H8 ceilings pull back from CVG, leaving a broken cirrus deck to affect the tafs for the later part of the period. The 4-5kft ceilings should work back into CVG at the end of the 30 hr taf. Winds will be light and variable tonight, but will then gradually increase on Monday. Could see some gusts into the upper 20s for Monday afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Tuesday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM... AVIATION...Sites is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.