Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221756 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 156 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push off to the east through this afternoon. A low pressure system will lift out of the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. This will bring a chance of showers to the region through the first part of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Dense high clouds continue to affect the region this morning. Upped the cloud cover to account for this. Models are still indicating that this high cloudiness will try to thin by late afternoon. Still think that highs can make the lower 60s across the northwest and the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... A stacked low over the lower Mississippi Valley tonight will lift slowly northeast into the western Tennessee Valley through the day on Monday. Moisture associated with this will push slowly northeast toward our area tonight with deeper moisture spreading in from the south through the day on Monday. This will lead to thickening clouds with showers spreading into our southern areas Monday morning and then across the remainder of our area through Monday afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s in the north to the lower 50s in the south. The warmest temperatures on Monday will be across our north, where the thicker clouds/pcpn will arrive the latest. Will range highs on Monday from near 60 in our southwest to mid 60s across our far north. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The first couple of periods in the extended will be characterized by cool and wet conditions as an upper level low moves overhead. Monday night the upper level low will be centered over the Tennessee/ Kentucky border with rain ongoing across the region. Through the day Tuesday the upper level low will be overhead allowing showers to continue. The GFS and NAM does have some weak instability (actually GFS forecast soundings are little bit more impressive than the NAM), but for the most part it is transient and confined towards the Ohio River. For now have just scaled back the chance of thunder given the forecast soundings and position of the vertically stacked low. Tuesday night into Wednesday a potent upper level disturbance will be pushing southeast out of Ontario with the upper level low that was over the Ohio Valley ejecting northeast. The GFS, NAM, and CMC all have the low (and precipitation) moving out of the area Wednesday morning while the ECMWF holds onto precipitation through Wednesday. Either way the GFS has precipitation filling back in as the upper level disturbance over Ontario moves over Michigan. Due to this have kept the chance of precipitation through Wednesday afternoon for most of the area. Thursday has now trended drier as the upper level disturbance that was over Michigan exits the area. This will put Ohio on the back side of the low and in brief subsidence/ drier air (GFS PWATs around 0.30"). Mostly clear skies and highs in the lower 60s will make for a pleasant Thursday. Past the Thursday period, models quickly diverge as another upper level low dives south out of Canada. The general idea is that the upper level low will dive southeast and push a cold front through the area Friday into Saturday. Significant differences between models exist here though. The ECMWF is weakest with the upper level disturbance and slower with the front (pushing it through Friday evening). The GFS and CMC are much stronger and wrap up the upper level low and occlude it over the area. This allows for significant differences in models to propogate through the remainder of the extended. For now have kept Saturday afternoon through Sunday mostly dry. If the GFS and CMC are to be believed precipitation might hold on through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High and some mid continue to dominant the tafs this afternoon. This trend will continue through most of tonight, when the affects of the stacked low over the Mississippi Valley finally begin to affect the region. Overnight, the low pressure system will cross the Mississippi River. The models move a band of showers northeast into the CVG/LUK tafs shortly after 12Z as convergence associated with a low level jet increases. MVFR cigs and vsbys will accompany the rain. The rain band lifts northeast through the region, reaching ILN/DAY by 15Z, but CMH/LCK should remain dry through 18Z. Winds increases after sunrise Monday as the affects of 30-40kt low level jet are mixed down. Gusts into the 20s will be possible. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible Monday night into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Sites

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