-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
120
FXUS61 KILN 011046
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
646 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather conditions are expected into Thursday before
rain and storm chances return Friday and continue periodically into
early next week. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Westerly flow across the region with a shortwave tracking thru
the northern Great Lakes around the periphery of a mid level
ridge centered over the southeast. Weak surface high pressure
positioned east of ILN/s area this morning.

Mostly clear sky conditions early with light wind flow leading
to fog development over ILN/s southeast counties with the main
impact in river valleys. With issue a statement to message this
impact thru 9 am when fog is expected to burn off.

A weak front to slip into the area from the northwest this
afternoon with an increase in mid level clouds and cumulus
clouds. Forcing is very weak and forecast soundings suggest that
a CAP will be in place. Some of the more aggressive solutions
do not show this CAP and allow brief/spotty SHRA or a TSRA to
develop. Have maintained a dry forecast today - with this being
a very low probability and very limited coverage if a shower/storm
does develop.

Warm temperatures with highs topping out in the upper 70s to the
lower 80s. These readings are a good 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Weak surface front drops southeast into southern Ohio tonight
and stalls out overnight. Expect some mid level clouds with this
feature but with a lack of forcing have maintained a dry
forecast overnight. Mild lows to dip into the mid 50s and upper
50s.

Mid level ridge builds north Thursday with the sfc front
lifting back north. Better forcing and moisture stays west of
ILN/s area so have continued a dry forecast. H8 temperatures
warm to between 15C and 17C by Thursday afternoon. A very warm
day is in store for the region with highs from the lower 80s
north to the upper 80s south. These readings are 13 to 15
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 ridge axis pretty amplified across the eastern CONUS Thursday
night. This will keep low temperatures fairly mild in the low to mid
60s. Still anticipating a dry night based on latest guidance. Ridge
axis continues to nudge eastward on Friday as a longwave trough
across the western and central CONUS propagates its energy eastward.
A shortwave embedded within this longwave feature travels through
the Midwest region and provides a sufficient source of energy to
initiate showers and storms in this warm/humid air mass. Ensembles
still keep instability fairly marginal during the daytime hours
Friday. Additionally, wind shear is not very impressive on Friday
either, with 0-3km shear of ~25 kts and 0-6km only around 20 kts.
Not overly concerned about severe threat as of now given these
values.

PoPs linger Friday and perhaps into the beginning of Saturday before
the shortwave ejects northeastward. Ensembles and global models
still all over the place with exact timing on precip ending, but the
latter parts of Saturday are trending drier.

Another embedded shortwave is forecast to track through the region
once again late Sunday into Monday, which would increase PoPs for
our CWA. Additional upper level energy will translate eastward
across the Midwest Tuesday, keeping the pattern unsettled with
additional chances for showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Light winds and mainly clear skies has led to valley fog at
KLUK. After the valley fog improves this morning VFR conditions
are expected through the remainder of the day and into this
evening. Dry conditions are expected today with some mid level
clouds and cumulus clouds expected at times as a weak front
settles into the area.

Some valley fog will again be possible tonight at KLUK. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions with mainly some mid and high level
clouds.

Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 12 kts with gusts around
20 knots in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times on Friday,
Saturday, and Sunday. MVFR ceilings are possible Friday into
Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR