Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230140 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 940 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into this evening when a cold front pushes south through the area. High pressure will build in for Wednesday and remain in control of the weather through Friday offering dry conditions and continued warm temperatures. A chance of showers and storms will return over the upcoming weekend as moisture increases ahead of the next frontal system. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A scattered to broken line of storms is continuing to push slowly southeast across southern and eastern portions of our area this evening. This is along and ahead of a cold front that will push southeast of our area overnight. As a result, expect to see the shower and thunderstorm activity taper off across our area over the next few hours. Drier air will filter in behind the front through the night but there are some indications that some stratus could form in the developing weak low level CAA. Will therefore try to bring some clouds back in later tonight, especially across the north. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s in the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... During the day Wednesday surface high pressure will build in from the north with 850 MB temperatures around 12 degrees C. 1000 MB/ 850 MB thicknesses are around 1400 M which would support high temperatures around 80 degrees (slightly warmer southwest and cooler north). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong surface high pressure system will be centered over Lakes Erie/Huron and provide another dry day for the Ohio Valley with easterly flow. The axis of the high will remain over Ohio as the system moves east and away from the region overnight, with return flow setting up on Friday. This return flow will necessitate some low chance probabilities of showers and/or an isolated thunderstorm on Friday underneath a broad H5 ridge. This should be driven by daytime heating but the influx of moisture in the low levels would have any storms that develop during the day linger into the evening and possibly the overnight hours for both Friday and Saturday. Saturday will see a better chance of these storms as the H5 ridge breaks down and a weakening shortwave hangs up and stretches out as it moves into the region from the northwest. Upper level flow then becomes dominated by a strong low over the Gulf states that pushes the flow over the Ohio Valley from east to west for the bulk of next week. Showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out entirely for any period, but the threat for organized severe weather in this pattern seems minimal. Temperatures were adjusted towards the latest guidance, but this did not change more than a degree or two in any day or nighttime period than what was already in the forecast. Temperatures are forecast to stay above normal through the period. Highs in the low to mid 80s Thursday through Sunday may slip to around 80 Monday and Tuesday under thicker clouds and a higher potential for rain. Lows in the middle 60s will prevail, with some variation of northern counties dropping to the lower 60s at times and southern CWA lingering in the upper 60s given an expected higher moisture profile. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A broken line of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of an advancing cold front will continue to push southeast across the area through the rest of this evening. The strongest storms have moved southeast of the TAF sites but a few lingering showers or possibly a thunderstorm may still affect the I-71 corridor TAF sites over the next hour or so. Otherwise, drying conditions are expected overnight in developing light northerly flow behind the front. The models are suggesting the possibility of some MVFR to possibly IFR stratus development later tonight into early Wednesday morning. It looks like the best chance for this would be at the northern TAF sites. Will also allow for some MVFR BR development later tonight but this may be countered somewhat by the drier air trying to move in. High pressure will then build into the area through the day on Wednesday with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.