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955
FXUS61 KILN 090607
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
207 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low pressure center will cross the area underneath an
eastward moving mid level shortwave tonight, creating another
round of showers and thunderstorms. These storms will decrease
but then re-fire along a trailing cold front later in the day
Thursday, though with much less coverage and intensity than
recent events. High pressure will provide cooler and dry
weather to end of the work week before a fast moving system
moving through the Great Lakes brings showers on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Showers and thunderstorms that developed along a boundary near
to just south of I-70 have started to decrease. Expect this
trend to continue into the early morning hours as a weak impulse
pushes east. Other showers and embedded storms moving across
southern Indiana are also expected to weaken further, but will
move into southern counties before daybreak.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The cold front behind the surface low and upper s/w will clear
our area early Thursday with cooler air holding daytime highs in
the low to mid 60s north of I-70, low to mid 70s south to the
Ohio River, and some upper 70s along the Ohio and in northern
Kentucky.

As cooler air in the north works in, the overturning associated
with it could interact with the last s/w activity ahead of a l/w
trough late in the day. Add in a trailing cold front laying out
w-e in the center of the CWA and that brings another rain
potential, moreso to the north. Models are a little too
generous with rainfall on Thursday, and probably a little heavy
handed regarding thunder prospects. Shaved back a little bit wrt
pops, especially early but did not adjust the thunder chances.

The trailing front will be more of a boundary that could
continue to support shower activity as the l/w trough approaches
from the northwest towards daybreak Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The l/w trough will slowly move east on Friday. Couldn`t remove
the shower threat entirely but it`s quite muted and only
expected to be some passing light showers if they do develop.

A brief lull in pops Friday evening will end later overnight as
a secondary reinforcing s/w tracks sw into northern OH early
Saturday. This will generate a weak surface circulation and
trailing cold front/windshift to create more showers and
possibly some thunderstorms through evening. Decreasing clouds
overnight with increasing heights will promote a drier period
lasting through early Monday.

In the cold air behind the front, temperatures will drop to the
upper 40s and low 50s Thursday night, and a sharply cooler
Friday with highs in the low 60s. Another cool night will see
Saturday morning start out in the 45-50 range, with only
slightly warmer highs in the 60s. One last cool night is in the
offing for Saturday night as lows drop to the mid 40s. Highs
will then begin to warm a little each day beginning Sunday.

Upper level zonal flow through early next week will promote a
slow modification of the airmass with daytime highs reaching back
into the 80s Monday and Tuesday. Some embedded mid level energy
will lead to some lower end chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms both days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Showers and storms will temporarily affect most of the terminals
in the early part of the TAF period. This may lead to some lower
visibilities or ceilings. With plenty of low level moisture, do
expect MVFR ceilings to develop across the region closer to 12Z.
Once that occurs, MVFR ceilings will prevail through the rest
of the period, although there is at least some potential for a
break in the lower clouds at some point. Expect showers and
perhaps some thunderstorms to develop during the day

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will continue into Friday. IFR ceilings
are not out of the question..
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Flood Watch until 7 AM EDT this morning for OHZ077.
KY...Flood Watch until 7 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>099.
IN...Flood Watch until 7 AM EDT this morning for INZ073>075-080.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...