Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171943 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 343 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will begin to build into the region tonight. It will provide dry weather Sunday and Sunday night, before another area of low pressure brings precipitation to the region Monday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A H5 s/w is forecast to swing through the region late this afternoon and evening. The models produce some scattered QPF with this feature. Attm the radar is kinda quite, with the pcpn confined to the extreme nw counties. Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP try and keep the nrn area of pcpn as the dominant feature. They gradually bring this feature south through the fa, but weaken it as it does. Will lean towards the scenario as it is closest to reality, but kept a slight chance in the south to cover any development. Expect the fa to be dry by around 03Z. Clouds this afternoon across the north have seen some holes develop, which weren`t expected. Feel that these holes will come and go late this afternoon, then a trend of clearing from north to south should begin after 00Z. With the clearing skies, temperatures drop back into the 20s, with lower 20s east of Columbus and the upper 20s in nrn KY and se IN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will provide sunny skies for Sunday. Abundant solar insolation will actually allow temperature to push a few degrees above normal, topping out in the lower to mid 50s. The region will remain dry Sunday night, as the high pressure center moves to the east and the next low pressure system begins to develop in the plains. A few high clouds should start to affect the region. Lows will be warmer ranging from the lower 30s in the north to the upper 30s south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level disturbance will approach the area at the start of the long term period. Precipitation will start out in the form of rain, however as colder air begins to work into the region Monday night precipitation will begin to changeover to snow. There is the potential for an axis of some accumulating snow Monday night. There are still some model differences with this however and therefore have decided to leave out of the HWO at this time. While precipitation may decrease some during the day on Tuesday another upper level disturbance and surface low approach the region from the south and therefore additional precipitation is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. Went cooler than the blends on Wednesday with northerly flow. Due to this expect additional potential for accumulating snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. Dry conditions will then move into the region Wednesday night into Friday. Another system moves into the region for the weekend. Went lower than the blends again for temperatures across the north on Saturday due to cool easterly flow with precipitation and cloud cover. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sfc low in wrn Kentucky will continue to drop se this afternoon. It will be followed quickly by a H5 s/w. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms developed around CVG and has already moved e, but expect additional showers to develop this afternoon as the lift associated with the s/w moves across the region. As this time, don`t expect anymore thunder. Will carry a VCSH at all tafs to cover the chance of showers. IFR ceilings at CVG will begin to rise, as the afternoon progresses. Expect them to reach MVFR around 22Z. MVFR cigs at LUK and ILN will linger through the afternoon, while the northern tafs should experience VFR cigs. After the s/w passes by, clearing will begin to work north to south through the tafs. CMH/LCK will be the first to clear, around 04Z. For the srn tafs, it won`t be until 08-09Z before the clearing lines reaches them. Ceilings could jump to VFR an hour or so before the clouds scatter. High pressure will provide VFR conditions for Monday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Monday night through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM... AVIATION...Sites is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.