Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141310 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 910 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure is forecast to bring dry weather today through Friday. Low pressure tracking through Southern Indiana will provide a chance of mixed precipitation Friday night and Saturday. High pressure and dry air are expected to return on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The main change for this forecast update is to stretch out the chance of flurries for several hours into the afternoon, especially for central Ohio. Satellite imagery shows a fairly solid deck of stratocumulus clouds across most of the CWA, generally advecting from NNW to SSE across the area. Tracking the moisture via 925mb/850mb planar views and BUFKIT soundings, it appears that some flurries will continue to be possible as long as these clouds are in place. Chances for accumulating snow are diminishing but some reports of light accumulations have been received. Sky grids were increased as well, but based on observed trends and the latest HRRR/RAP runs, the temperature forecast is reasonably on track to the middle to upper 30s previously expected -- with around 40 degrees possible in the Cincinnati area and to the southwest. Previous discussion > Surface analysis shows the area in a northwesterly flow between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west. Snow showers and flurries are lingering for a few more hours in residual moisture and short wave energy circulating around the upper trough that has been anchored to the east for several days. As the high noses in behind the departing low pressure system, drier air and subsidence should bring an end to all snow by mid morning. Persistent cloud cover should eventually show a decreasing trend this afternoon, especially in western locations closer to the center of the high. Brisk winds will result from a tightening pressure gradient ahead of a dry cold front dropping from the north, with gusts over 20 mph this afternoon. Temperatures in the chilly northwest flow will remain well below normal, with highs reaching the mid and upper 30s most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... For tonight, a weak cold front with little moisture or upper support will cross the area. Though no precip is expected, cloud cover should increase and winds will stay up around 12 mph. High pressure pushed by a northwest upper flow behind the front will provide dry weather on Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer on Thursday with highs ranging from the upper 30s north to 50 far south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid level low develops over the central plains Friday with overrunning pcpn developing along and north of a front in the TN VLY. Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building southeast across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley will work to keep ILN/s area dry Friday. Below normal temperatures to continue with highs Friday from the mid/upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. The mid level low will open up and weaken as it tracks across the Ohio Valley Saturday/Saturday night. WAA precipitation to develop ahead of weakening surface low late Friday night. Potential exists for a period of freezing rain Saturday morning prior to changing to rain. Temperatures will continue below normal with highs Saturday from the lower 40s north to the to upper 40s south. With weakening surface low tracking through the Ohio Valley rain showers to end Saturday night. Surface high pressure to build across the area offering dry weather Sunday. Temperatures are expected to warm slightly above normal with highs Sunday from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south. Vigorous mid level and surface low to track into the Ohio Valley early next week. Some timing differences exist but confidence is fairly high in pcpn event Monday night into Tuesday. Have increased pops to likely for rain showers during this period. Precipitation to change to snow showers before ending Tuesday night. Near normal temperatures expected Monday with highs from the mid 40s north to the upper 50s south. Temperatures turn cooler with highs Tuesday from 40 north to 50 south and from 40 to 45 Wednesday. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Conditions have become VFR at CVG LUK DAY and ILN as high pressure and dry air build from the southwest. MVFR ceilings may affect CMH and LCK until 14z before conditions improve there. After 14z, VFR should persist through the end of the forecast as the high moves across the Gulf Coast and a dry cold front drops to Ohio from the Great Lakes. The tightening pressure gradient surrounding the front will cause northwest to west winds to gust over 20 knots this afternoon. Mainly clear skies and southwest winds staying up around 10 knots are expected near the end of the 24 hour forecast. CVG can expect VFR and northwest winds after 12z Thursday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.