Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 131749 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 PM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low crossing the Great Lakes today will aid in the development of scattered snow showers on a brisk northwest flow. High pressure is forecast to bring dry weather and moderating temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure will provide a chance of rain showers to southern locations on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast remains on track this morning with main concern being the potential for snow squalls starting northwest of Dayton this morning and then progressing across the area through the afternoon. The main focus will be a potent vort max heading southeast across the area which can be seen on water vapor this morning near north/ central Indiana. Pavement temperatures currently have increased mainly into the mid 30s across the region which makes the threat of impacts more marginal, but will continue to have to watch. New zones out. Prev Discussion-> A potent upper low and vort max over the Western Great Lakes will move to Ohio today, with associated lift and colder air aloft setting the stage for snow shower formation. High temperatures reaching only the 30s will be cold enough for snow, and scattered snow showers will develop in rather shallow moisture and instability intersecting the DGZ. Favorable snow squall parameter and PV anomaly indicate the potential for briefly reduced visibilities in the brisk northwest flow, and some of the snow showers will produce light snow accumulation causing slippery roads, contributing to isolated pockets of hazardous travel. Limiting factor will be above freezing road temperatures working against accumulating snow. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... For tonight, a few snow showers will linger in a persistent northwesterly low level flow, especially in eastern locations. A decreasing trend will be noted after midnight as short wave energy relaxes and surface high pressure begins to build from the southwest. Dry weather is then expected for Wednesday when the high will be centered along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will stay below normal, with highs reaching the upper 30s to about 40. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northwest flow aloft with s/w and surface front to drop south through the Ohio Valley Thursday. Due to limited moisture and forcing will maintain a dry forecast and only allow for some increase in clouds. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal with highs from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south. Mid level low develops over the central plains Friday with overrunning pcpn developing along and north of a front in the TN VLY. Surface high pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley keeping ILN/s area dry Friday. Below normal temperatures to continue with highs Friday from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. The mid level low will open up and weaken as it tracks across the Ohio Valley Saturday. Will keep chance pops of showers across the south. The pcpn will likely begin as a mix of rain and snow early before changing to all rain Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs Saturday from the mid 40s north to the to near 50 south. Surface high pressure to build across the area offering dry weather Sunday. Temperatures are expected to warm above normal with highs Sunday from the lower 50s north to the upper 50s south. Mid level flow backs westerly with next s/w bringing a chance of showers Monday into Tuesday. Pcpn expected to be mainly rain with a mix across the north possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. Above normal temperature expected Monday with highs from 50 north to the upper 50s south. Temperatures closer to normal Tuesday with highs 45 north to 55 south. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Scattered snow showers have formed across the area today with the primary band being along an upper level disturbance. Inside this main band (that is currently approaching KILN/ KLUK) visibilities will drop to VLIFR with ceilings down into IFR. After this primary band passes scattered snow showers will continue to affect the area, but visibility and ceiling restrictions will be limited thanks to a shrinking DGZ depth. Overnight snow shower activity will continue to diminish as the best upper level lift exits the area. Wednesday morning RH fields are indicating the potential for some MVFR ceilings to form across our east as moisture rotates south around an area of low pressure. For now it appears this will be primarily contained at the KCMH/ KLCK TAF sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Haines NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.