Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 290250
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
850 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures will continue tonight, but a warming trend
  will quickly return for the rest of the week and into the
  weekend.

- A weak system will move across the southern half of the state
  with a chance of rain and snow possible along and south of an
  I-72/Danville line. However, a stronger system will move across
  the area Sunday night through Monday night with rain expected at
  this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

The pressure gradient continues to relax this evening as a ridge
of high pressure along the Mississippi River shifts eastward.
Winds have decreased to less than 10mph across the board and will
become light/variable overnight as the high moves overhead. Thanks
to clear skies and light winds, efficient radiational cooling of
the dry airmass will allow low temperatures to bottom out a few
degrees colder than guidance. 02z/8pm readings have already
dropped into the middle to upper 20s...with lower 20s west of the
Illinois River where winds are lightest. Made a few tweaks to
overnight lows...mainly to go a bit colder in the Illinois River
Valley around Galesburg and Macomb. Otherwise the going forecast
is on track and requires no major updates at this time.

Barnes

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Dry weather is expected tonight through tomorrow evening as high
pressure continues to dominate the weather across the area and
then slides east. A mid level trough, with a weak sfc system will
slide across the southern part of the state late tomorrow night
through Friday. Due to the temp profile during the nighttime
hours, a mix of rain and snow will be possible until temps warm up
enough on Friday to change the precip to all rain. However, with
the system being on the weaker side, the pops will remain on the
lower end (20-30%) with the 30% pops being in Southeast IL Fri
morning.

Temps will be on the cooler side tonight, with lighter winds,
clear skies, and dewpoints down into the single to lower teen
digits. Lows around 20 are expected at this time, but would not be
surprised to see some places in the north get down into the lower
teens. Temps will warm quickly for Thur and Fri as high pressure
shifts to the east and southerly winds return to the area. Highs
in the middle to upper 40s are expected for the rest of the week.

Auten

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Dry weather is expected for the weekend with temps getting quite
warm...reaching into the 60s for Sat & the 70s for Sun. Then a
stronger system will move across the area Sunday night through
Monday night with rain. However, the models are not in any good
agreement with this system, especially on timing. For now, will
go with the ensemble blend of models as far as timing goes, and
let the models work out their differences as the system get closer
in time.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period.
Gusty W/NW winds will quickly decrease after sunset and will
become light/variable overnight as high pressure moves overhead.
As the high passes to the east, S winds will resume on
Thursday...with the strongest speeds of 10-15kt focused along/west
of the I-55 corridor during the afternoon. Skies will remain
mostly clear.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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