Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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515 FXUS63 KILX 101115 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 615 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - In the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, there is a 20-30% chance of greater than 0.75" of rainfall in 24 hours. Should this occur, one impact would be additional runoff into area rivers already running high. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 An upper level wave is diving southeast across IL this morning. There have been a few showers associated with this wave as it traversed IA and moved into northwest IL, but the latest high res models indicate these showers won`t make it deep into central IL. We will see brief upper ridging this afternoon before another upper wave dives southeast into IL tonight in the northwest flow aloft. An associated surface low will dive southeast across the Great Lakes with an accompanying cold front passing through IL Friday night. We`ll see a chance for showers with this system Friday night, but instability looks rather weak. Believe thunder chances will be rather slim as MUCAPEs look to be less than 100 J/kg according to the HREF mean. Expect benign northwesterly flow aloft for the weekend. We`ll have breezy northwest winds on Saturday with a surface ridge of high pressure moving through the area Saturday night. By Sunday night, an upper low will be passing to the east across Ontario with a southern stream upper low approaching to the southwest. Precipitation chances increase across IL from this southern system Sunday night, with some moderate chances for thunder expected as MUCAPEs are as high as 500 J/kg in west-central IL. The upper low will slowly make its way east across the mid MS River Valley on Mon/Tue and the track will play a key role in how far north the rain extends. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected for the start to the week, with the southern half of IL having the best chance for measurable rainfall. Right now, the rainfall ensemble mean for Mon-Tue ranges from around 0.25" in Galesburg to 0.75" in Lawrenceville. Models also have a 20-30% chance for 0.75" of rain in 24 hrs in our southern zones, around I-72 and south, which could add some additional runoff to area rivers that are already running high. Sometime in the Wed-Thu timeframe, we`ll likely see an upper ridge move into the area once again, providing a break from the precip for at least part of the period. There are model differences in the timing of this ridge, but sometime on Thu or Friday, another upper wave is expected to bring showers and storms back to the region. Stay tuned for updates to this late week system as the picture becomes clearer with subsequent model runs. Knutsvig && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Cigs started around 1500 ft this morning across much of central IL...although we do have breaks that are expanding. We`ll be seeing improvement through the morning with most areas seeing VFR conditions by early afternoon. With our without the initial low clouds, we should see SCT-BKN decks of cumulus develop by late morning with bases rising to above 3000 ft AGL by early afternoon. A few showers will move into central IL from the northwest around 03Z, but coverage is expected to be rather low so did not include in the TAFs at this time. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$