Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000 FXUS63 KIND 062312 CCA AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 550 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Issued at 251 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 Quiet and pleasant early spring weather expected throughout the weekend, with surface high pressure firmly in control and amplified long wave ridging building heights across the region. Expect mostly clear skies throughout the short term as a result of this high pressure, with only some passing high cloud at times. Blend temperatures required some minor tweaks per low level thicknesses, primarily to tighten the gradient in min temps tonight, and to bump highs up a bit tomorrow. Have entered that early part of the transition season where it`s relatively easy to outperform guidance, and that looks to hold serve tomorrow and likely beyond. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... Issued at 251 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 The extended period will definitely carry a spring vibe to it...first with the temperatures and later in the week with the return of an active and wet pattern. The extended period of tranquil weather recently enjoyed will continue through the first half of the upcoming week with a warmup to boot. Strong high pressure will center across the southeast part of the country through midweek enabling a nice S/SW low level flow to advect much milder air into the Ohio Valley. With the added influence of ridging aloft expanding into the region as well...the stage is set for the warmest temperatures of 2021 so far...likely on multiple days through Wednesday. Suspect model guidance is undercatching potential warmth considering the strength of the warm advection...a known issue early in the transitional period to spring...and have raised high temperatures a few degrees Monday through Wednesday. Low to mid 60s look solid and not out of the question that a few spots make an effort to push 70 degrees. The return to a more active weather pattern is set for late week and should persist into next weekend as the upper ridge breaks down. The development of a deep upper low over southern California by early Friday will promote a shift to broad southwesterly flow aloft that combined with a continued Gulf fetch and the presence of the frontal boundary becoming quasistationary over the Ohio Valley...will increase the possibility for an prolonged stretch with periods of heavier rainfall beginning Thursday and extending into next weekend. The instability profiles remain a bit lower than desired at this point for introducing a thunder mention but the potential is certainly there to see a convective component to the precip through Friday. Still a lot to hash out with the specifics and the potential that the forecast area will eventually end up on the north side of the front by late week. The main takeaway at this point is the possibility at a renewed threat for locally heavy rainfall and flooding over parts of the region late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION...(DISCUSSION for the 070000Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 550 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 IMPACTS: VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds generally less than 10kt but will vary in direction. DISCUSSION: Some few to perhaps scattered cumulus clouds will persist into the first few hours of the TAF, then only some passing high clouds are expected. Winds will be 310 to 060 during the first half of the valid period, then vary as high pressure settles in. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nield LONG TERM...Ryan Aviation...50

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