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260
FXUS64 KJAN 130006 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
706 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Tonight through Monday...

A few lingering scattered showers and storms will be possible across
portions of southeast AR and most of our northeast LA parishes this
evening. By midnight, rain chances will be near zero leading to
mostly quiet conditions across our forecast area. HREF guidance is
starting to show very low probabilities (around 10-20%) of patchy
fog development after midnight through early Sunday morning mainly
for areas along and south of the Hwy 84 corridor. Fog graphics will
not be introduced at this time given the low probability of fog
development highlighted by HREF guidance. With that in mind, shallow
patchy fog will be possible particularly after dawn. Areas along and
south of Hwy 84 should start to see improvement in visibility by day
break Sunday. Expect nighttime temperatures to drop into the low 70s
areawide.

Weather conditions through Sunday morning will remain generally
quiet as hi-res guidance continues to show a 1020mb sfc high
hovering over the eastern Gulf. To the west of this high, southerly
moist boundary layer advection will continue across our forecast
area. With model consensus showing PWATs of 2.01in, scattered showers
and t-storms will be possible Sunday afternoon with PoPs ranging
between 25-40%. With the lower afternoon rain chances, heat stress
concerns will continue to increase across our forecast area for
Sunday with many areas reaching the 105 heat index reading mark.

Areas along and west of I-55 will have the best potential to see
heat indices approaching 105 degrees heading into Monday. Given
afternoon highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, the
"Limited" risk for heat stress will continue to be highlighted in
our graphics through Monday. Future adjustments to the graphics as
well as heat advisories will likely be needed for portions, if not
all of, the forecast area heading into Monday. /CR/

Tuesday through Friday...

As we head into the new work week, model consensus from both the GFS
and the Euro show the sfc high starting to gradually retrograde
across the southeast CONUS. As this high begins to push north into
the region, humid conditions will persist across our CWA, which in
turn will lead to increasing heat conditions through the extended
period. Looking at current forecast trends, it appears that heat
indices will be in the 105-110 range next Tuesday through Friday
given daytime highs forecasted in the mid/upper 90s along with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s (a few spots could potentially see
dewpoints in the low 80s). This will likely result in the "Limited"
risk for heat stress being upgraded to an "Elevated" risk in our HWO
graphics for the Tuesday/Friday timeframe. It is possible that a
"Significant" risk may be introduced in future forecast updates.
Furthermore, heat advisories/warnings will eventually be needed as
well. Afternoon/early evening showers and t-storms will provide some
relief from the heat Global guidance shows convection dissipating by
the evening hours each day as daytime heating wanes. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Isolated TSRA wl come in vcty of the nw and se TAF sites through
01Z before dissipating. Scattered TSRA were noted on radar over
the ne and may come in vcty of GTR by 02Z before dissipating.
Isolated to scattered TSRA are expected to develop again Sunday
aftn. Away from TSRA VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF
period. /22/
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Jackson       73  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  30
Meridian      72  94  73  96 /  20  30  10  30
Vicksburg     74  94  75  95 /  10  30   0  20
Hattiesburg   74  97  74  97 /  20  30   0  40
Natchez       72  93  73  94 /  10  40   0  30
Greenville    73  93  74  94 /  20  30  10  30
Greenwood     73  94  74  95 /  20  30  10  40
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&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/CR/22