Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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673 FXUS64 KJAN 221030 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 530 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 12Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF discussion: VFR through the forecast pd with high pressure over the region. Winds will be light and variable in proximity to the ridge axis early, though becoming more easterly by midday through the afternoon. Mostly cirrus through today, but mid clouds should be moving into the region after 06Z tonight... impacting western terminals GLH/GWO/HKS by 12Z. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight... A chilly start to the day today as mostly sunny to sunny skies dominate the forecast area. High pressure over the region will keep the dry weather in place for the next 24 hrs, with some cirrus moving in from the west. Light/variable to calm winds overnight will continue into the day, picking up more of an easterly fetch as the ridge axis drifts east this morning. Winds slowly veer to east/southeasterly by this afternoon, but return flow is a little slow in regards to warmer air or moisture working into the region. By later this afternoon, however, dewpoints should at least be back into the 40s west of I-55...slowly working into the rest of the forecast area by tomorrow morning. Sct/bkn cirrus overhead through the overnight and temperatures running about 10 degrees above where they were this morning...starting a warming trend going into the weekend. Friday through Wednesday night...Southerly moist flow will increase across the area on Friday, as a warm front lifts northward over the area. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s Friday afternoon. Showers will be on the increase in the west during the late afternoon/early evening hours, out ahead of a strong short wave and associated low/cold front. The showers and storms will increase in coverage during the evening hours on Friday, with heavy rainfall likely mainly along the warm front as storms train along it. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches look likely over areas mainly along and north of the I-20 corridor by early Saturday morning. As far as the severe threat goes, the NAM continues to be the most aggressive and the farthest north with the warm sector Friday night. It continues to look like the best surge of higher dewpoints/ instability may be after the bulk of convection begins overnight, so this may be a limiting factor in the amount of severe. Either way will continue the marginal/slight risk, with the best chance for any severe storms along and south of I-20. The bulk of the convection will shift east of the area early Saturday morning, with a few showers continuing into the afternoon, before the cold front pushes east of the area by late afternoon. Surface high pressure ridging will build into the region Saturday night into Sunday with highs in the 70s. Upper and surface ridging will continue to prevail on Monday and Tuesday, with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s each day. Moisture will begin to increase across the area once again one Wednesday, out ahead of another strong short wave that will approach the Wednesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 50 73 59 / 0 7 34 96 Meridian 69 47 72 57 / 0 3 13 96 Vicksburg 69 54 73 61 / 0 10 66 97 Hattiesburg 70 49 73 62 / 0 4 32 88 Natchez 69 53 74 61 / 0 7 77 94 Greenville 67 53 70 59 / 1 13 55 98 Greenwood 67 53 71 58 / 1 11 25 98 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ HJS

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