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673
FXUS64 KJAN 221030
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
530 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
VFR through the forecast pd with high pressure over the region.
Winds will be light and variable in proximity to the ridge axis
early, though becoming more easterly by midday through the
afternoon. Mostly cirrus through today, but mid clouds should be
moving into the region after 06Z tonight... impacting western
terminals GLH/GWO/HKS by 12Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...
A chilly start to the day today as mostly sunny to sunny skies
dominate the forecast area.  High pressure over the region will keep
the dry weather in place for the next 24 hrs, with some cirrus
moving in from the west. Light/variable to calm winds overnight will
continue into the day, picking up more of an easterly fetch as the
ridge axis drifts east this morning.  Winds slowly veer to
east/southeasterly by this afternoon, but return flow is a little
slow in regards to warmer air or moisture working into the region.
By later this afternoon, however, dewpoints should at least be back
into the 40s west of I-55...slowly working into the rest of the
forecast area by tomorrow morning.  Sct/bkn cirrus overhead through
the overnight and temperatures running about 10 degrees above where
they were this morning...starting a warming trend going into the
weekend.

Friday through Wednesday night...Southerly moist flow will increase
across the area on Friday, as a warm front lifts northward over the
area. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s Friday
afternoon. Showers will be on the increase in the west during the
late afternoon/early evening hours, out ahead of a strong short wave
and associated low/cold front. The showers and storms will increase
in coverage during the evening hours on Friday, with heavy rainfall
likely mainly along the warm front as storms train along it.
Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches look likely over areas mainly along
and north of the I-20 corridor by early Saturday morning. As far as
the severe threat goes, the NAM continues to be the most aggressive
and the farthest north with the warm sector Friday night. It
continues to look like the best surge of higher dewpoints/
instability may be after the bulk of convection begins overnight, so
this may be a limiting factor in the amount of severe. Either way
will continue the marginal/slight risk, with the best chance for any
severe storms along and south of I-20.

The bulk of the convection will shift east of the area early
Saturday morning, with a few showers continuing into the afternoon,
before the cold front pushes east of the area by late afternoon.
Surface high pressure ridging will build into the region Saturday
night into Sunday with highs in the 70s. Upper and surface ridging
will continue to prevail on Monday and Tuesday, with highs climbing
into the low to mid 80s each day. Moisture will begin to increase
across the area once again one Wednesday, out ahead of another
strong short wave that will approach the Wednesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  50  73  59 /   0   7  34  96
Meridian      69  47  72  57 /   0   3  13  96
Vicksburg     69  54  73  61 /   0  10  66  97
Hattiesburg   70  49  73  62 /   0   4  32  88
Natchez       69  53  74  61 /   0   7  77  94
Greenville    67  53  70  59 /   1  13  55  98
Greenwood     67  53  71  58 /   1  11  25  98

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

HJS