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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KJAN 021544
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL
944 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.UPDATE...
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Updated for morning discussion.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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Light to moderate rain will continue to track northeast through
the area this morning as SW winds aloft continue ahead of an upper
low. This, combined with a saturated airmass, will keep rain in
the forecast through the remainder of the day, and persistent
thick cloud cover will keep temperatures from rising much above
the upper 40s across most of the area this afternoon. Still expect
the heaviest rain to be south of I-20 and along and east of the
I-59 corridor later this afternoon. Northerly afternoon wind gusts
could reach the 15-20mph range, making for a chilly and breezy
afternoon in addition to the rain. Expect rain chances to
gradually taper off from west to east later this afternoon into
the evening hours. /HUN/

Prior discussion below:

.Today and tonight...Rain is spreading across the area this
morning out ahead of an upper low, that is centered over eastern
Oklahoma. As the low approaches, the rain will increase in
intensity later this morning and continue through much of the
day. The heaviest rainfall amounts will be along and south of the
Natchez Trace corridor, where most areas could receive as much as
an inch, with isolated higher amounts by this evening. The
heaviest rainfall amounts will be along the Highway 84 corridor.
The upper low will move across north Mississippi later this
afternoon into the evening hours, with the rain ending from west
to east during this period. Surface high pressure will build in
overnight, with skies becoming partly cloudy and lows falling into
the mid/upper 30s for most of the area. /15/

Wednesday through Monday:

With northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure following the
exit of the trough, conditions will be quiet with near normal temps
expected through Friday. Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the
upper 30s to low 40s across the area. An upper shortwave moving
around the ridge will dive down from the Colorado Rockies into the
southern Plains on Friday and across our area late Friday into
Saturday. Some rain will likely affect our CWA in this system with
the southwestern parts of the area having the best chances for
rainfall. Instability will be greatly limited and thus no severe
storms are expected, much less any thunder. The shortwave will
quickly move through the region Friday night into Saturday morning
as the system moves around the base of the upper longwave trough
situated over the eastern US. The remainder of the forecast will be
quiet with near normal to slightly above normal temps continuing
into next week. /10/
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&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
All sites are VFR this morning as light rain continues across much
of the area. The rain will continue over most TAF sites through
much of the day, with a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions. The rain will
end from west to east later this afternoon into the evening
hours. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Jackson       49  38  61  37 / 93  11   0   0
Meridian      49  40  61  38 / 96  55   0   0
Vicksburg     49  37  60  37 / 90   2   0   0
Hattiesburg   54  40  62  38 / 97  27   0   0
Natchez       51  38  60  38 / 92   2   0   0
Greenville    46  36  58  38 / 66   4   0   0
Greenwood     48  37  59  37 / 78  16   0   0
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&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$