-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
108
FXUS62 KJAX 060057
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
857 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 848 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Daytime convection is quickly weaning at this hour, with a quiet
and mild night expected. Flood warnings do remain in effect for a
portion of eastern Hamilton County until 945PM, as well as a
portion of Marion County northwest of Ocala until 1030PM as a
result of earlier locally heavy rainfall. Patchy and possibly
areas of fog will be likely over the interior late tonight and
towards the morning hours, especially near the I-75 corridor and
into southwestern GA counties where the most rain fell today.
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&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Diurnal heating this afternoon will push East Coast sea breeze
inland to merge with the Gulf Coast sea breeze across inland NE FL
and with PWATs around 1.5 inches, should see scattered
showers/storms this afternoon over most areas with numerous
showers/storms over portions of inland NE FL where merger takes
place. Slow and erratic storm motion around 10 mph or less will
lead to locally heavy rainfall as the main storm impact, but still
expect a few strong storms with gusty winds to 50 mph, hail and
frequent lightning over inland areas where mergers take place.
Activity will fade after sunset and end by midnight with fair
skies overnight with lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower
70s along the coast with brief/patchy fog in some inland locations
by sunrise Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Monday, low level ridge axis will extend from the western Atlantic
waters into NE FL and SE GA. Aloft, trailing shortwave energy from
a southern stream trough moving eastward from the TN valley to the
southern/central Appalachians will move over the area. Above avg
precipitable water levels 1.50-1.75 inches will be in place as
southerly low level flow veers more from the SW through the day
will focus T`storm development along the Atlantic seabreeze as it
moves inland against the SSW surface winds 8-12 mph with SE winds
10-15 mph behind it. The best coverage of showers and T`storms
focus between US-1 and higway301 in SE GA southward towards I-10
in NE FL where the best moisture axis will be, with more scattered
coverage of showers and T`storms elsewhere. Mid level temps near
to slightly warmer than average should limit mid level lapse rates
and prevent a threat for severe T`storms, but locally heavy
rainfall amounts are possible due to weak storm motions along with
a few storms that may produce gusty winds 40-50 mph, small hail,
and frequent lightning. Highs will be above normal into the upper
80s inland with low to mid 80s at the coast. Showers and T`storms
should end in the post sunset/pre-midnight period.

Tuesday, morning lows will begin above normal in the mid to upper
60s over the interior and the upper 60s to around 70 at coast.
Any fog should remain west of the Suwannee river valley. Low level
ridge axis will shift southward into central FL with light SW winds
8-12 mph and little higher behind the inland moving Gulf seabreeze
10-15 mph and along the pinned Atlantic seabreeze confined east of
I-95. Less moisture compared to Monday will be over the area and
limited chances for showers and T`storms expected with widely
scattered T`storms possible. With mostly sunny skies, highs will
be warmer into the lower 90s for most with mid to upper 80s along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

The period will begin with well above normal temperatures bringing
hot conditions to the area Wednesday and Thursday that may
possibly challenge daily record highs (see climate section) as low
level ridge axis sinks into southern FL. Breezy WSW winds and
drier air under the low level ridge will allow for mostly sunny
skies and highs reaching into the mid 90s along the I-95 and US-17
corridors as the Atlantic seabreeze stays pinned to the immediate
beachfront where highs will rise to the low 90s before the
seabreeze moves onshore. Morning lows will start in the upper 60s
inland and the low 70s at the coast.

Friday, a more potent mid to upper level trough will swing ESE
from the mid MS valley to the interior Mid Atlantic and southern
Appalachians and support the eastward progression of a surface
cold front through the deep south from the lower MS valley.
Enhanced low and mid level flow ahead of the front will boost
moisture levels to above normal with shortwave energy spurring
scattered to numerous coverage of showers and T`storms. Increased
clouds will limit highs into the mid to upper 80s over much of SE
GA and towards the suwannee valley with low to mid 90s again over
the I-95 corridor of NE FL where less cloud cover and lower
showers and T`storm coverage expected until late afternoon into
the evening hours. Morning lows will be muggier in the low 70s.

Saturday, the cold front will sink into NE FL with uncertainty
on whether the cold front will stall or continue moving through
NE FL through the afternoon. Will keep isolated to scattered
showers in the forecast with a few T`Storms possible over the
southern most counties of north central FL. Weak ridging aloft
will move in the wake of a departing trough from the mid MS valley
into the Mid Atlantic/southern appalachians and allow weak high
pressure to shift from the central plains to the TN valley with
lower dewpoints in the 50s and west to NW winds along and behind
the front which will bring a drop in high temperatures with low
80s over SE GA into interior NE FL ranging into the upper 80s over
the St Johns river basin and north central FL. Lows Saturday will
be in the low 60s NW of Jacksonville and mid to upper 60s closer
to the NE FL coast and north central FL.

Sunday, more uncertainty remains on the evolution of the next
upstream mid to upper level trough as it pinwheels from the
upper plains into the Ohio Valley. The GFS model want to develop
a wave of low pressure along the Gulf coast as the front just to
the south quickly lifts north over the area and delivers a swath
of heavier showers over the area while the ECMWF delays the
formation of a Gulf low until late Sunday and places the swath of
showers over the southern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Will limit
any coverage of showers and T`storms to areas south of I-10 for
now as a compromise. Winds will be light from the WNW. Highs will
be similar to Saturday with low 80s over SE GA and mid to upper
80s over much of NE FL. Cooler lows in the upper 50s inland
expected with low 60s closer to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Diurnal convection is winding down, with all sites now at VFR. Not
expecting widespread fog overnight, though have included a TEMPO
for VQQ with periods of IFR. MVFR and possibly even IFR cannot be
ruled out at GNV as well, though confidence not high enough to
include in the forecast at this time. Diurnal clouds and
convection are expected again for Monday, with periods of MVFR
possible around late morning to early afternoon, especially at
coastal sites. Enough confidence to also include TS for all sites
Monday afternoon, with a sea breeze wind shift expected from east
to west throughout the afternoon and evening as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

High pressure ridge axis will remain across the local waters early
this week before building south of the local waters Tuesday
through Thursday with an offshore flow developing. Brief nocturnal
surges will develop with offshore wind speeds at 15 to 20 knots
and seas 3 to 5 feet during the evening hours, but overall not
expecting any chance for Small Craft Advisory headline potential
until the next cold frontal passage at the end of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through
early this week as local sea breezes dominate the surf zone with
breakers generally in the 1-2 ft range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

With high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic, daily
seabreeze circulation pattern will bring scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the area into Monday. Rest of today,
light southerly winds 8-12 mph prevail with Atlantic seabreeze
bringing southeasterly winds 10-15 mph behind it. Highest storm
chances expected between highway 301 and I-75 where Atlantic and
Gulf seabreezes merge from Marion county north to Osceola National
Forest.

Monday, the Atlantic seabreeze will make a bit less progress
inland with higher storm chances focusing between US-1 and highway
301 in Southeast Georgia south to the Osceola National forest.
Southwest winds prevail Tuesday with drier conditions and only
isolated showers/thunderstorms expected with a pinned Atlantic
seabreeze east of I-95. Dry conditions expected Wednesday with
hotter temperatures into the mid 90s with lower Min RH values, but
still above critical values. Increasing transport winds Tuesday
will create high dispersions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG
95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG  66  89  67  91 /  20  60  20  10
SSI  71  83  70  86 /  20  40  20  10
JAX  68  88  67  91 /  20  40  20  10
SGJ  68  86  68  89 /  20  30  10  10
GNV  66  89  65  91 /  40  50  10  20
OCF  67  89  67  91 /  50  30   0  20
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&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$