998
FXUS62 KJAX 110527
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
127 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Upper level impulse dropping southeast out of the Big Bend and
Apalachee Bay will kick off a few showers and thunderstorms
overnight in the area south of a line from Live Oak to Matanzas
Inlet including the Gainesville and Ocala areas. Storms will be
brief. Winds will shift from the WSW to NW and N overnight as the
front drops across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

The cold front will have essentially cleared the region by the
start of Saturday, with weak high pressure building in throughout
the day. The pressure gradient behind the front will not be
particularly strong, and therefore winds will not really increase
diurnally, and in fact may subside a bit throughout the day. The
more northerly component with the wind should allow a bit of a sea
breeze to develop, though will likely not penetrate much further
inland than the I-95/St. Johns River corridor. Otherwise, a mostly
sunny and seasonably warm day, near to slightly above 80 north and
upper 80s to near 90 south, dropping into the upper 50s to low/mid
60s Saturday Night.

Broad high pressure moves more overhead on Saturday Night and
through Sunday, which will persist fair weather and light winds to
end the weekend with just some high clouds starting to fill in
overhead. A sea breeze will develop once again with the light
winds during the afternoon, with temps topping out in the 80s
before the boundary moves across eastern areas. More cloud cover
will result in a bit milder lows Sunday Night, generally 60s to
near 70 by the coast and St. Johns River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

High pressure moves offshore Monday, with a much more unsettled
pattern looking to take shape for most of this period. A frontal
system approaches the area with a warm front passage on Monday,
followed by the trailing cold front Tuesday and into Wednesday.
The boundary looks to stall almost directly over the CWA around
the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, with several shortwaves moving
across the area and maintaining chances for showers and t`storms
before more of a "kicker" front approaches towards the end of the
week. Temperatures start this period near to slightly below
average with the unsettled weather, then towards near to slightly
above average by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Last of line of showers with potential MVFR CIGS impacting GNV/SGJ
through 07Z, then VFR for the remainder of the TAF period with an
increase in NW winds to 10-15 knots at GNV/VQQ/JAX today, with NE
winds expected at 10-15 knots at SGJ/SSI/CRG this afternoon. Winds
decreasing after sunset to 5 knots or less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Offshore Southwest to West flow will remain at SCEC (Small Craft
Exercise Caution) levels (15-20 knots) ahead of the cold frontal
passage Today into this evening with the main marine hazard with
strong to severe storms with damaging wind threat impacting the
waters in several waves through this evening. Winds shift to the
North at SCEC levels after midnight tonight behind the cold
frontal passage and spread across the local waters. These winds
become onshore/NE on Saturday and weaken to 10-15 knots as the
weak high pressure ridge builds over the waters for the weekend
with weak pressure gradient and No headlines expected with local
sea breezes during the afternoon hours. The old frontal boundary
lifts back to the North as a warm frontal boundary on Monday and
stalls across the local waters on Tuesday as several waves of low
pressure track along this feature. Increasing SE winds on Monday
to possible Small Craft Advisory levels will shift to South and
Southwest on Tuesday as the waves moving along the frontal
boundary with a more unsettled pattern of showers and storms at
times, with heavy rainfall and gusty wind threat at times early
next week.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rip currents expected Today
through the weekend with surf/breakers around 2 feet, before
onshore/SE flow increases on Monday with a potential for solid
Moderate to High Risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  85  62  82 /   0   0   0  40
SSI  64  83  69  81 /   0   0   0  40
JAX  61  87  66  85 /   0   0   0  40
SGJ  64  84  68  85 /   0   0   0  40
GNV  61  87  65  90 /  10   0   0  50
OCF  62  90  67  92 /  10   0   0  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$