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000
FXUS62 KJAX 200800
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
400 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...

Significantly cooler today for many areas, particularly along the
coast where temperatures will be a good 20 degrees cooler than
yesterday. Cold front will push south of the area this morning.
The local pressure gradient will tighten as strong high pressure
over the Great Lakes builds eastward and then wedges down the
coastline. Wind surge is already working quickly down our
coastline, and it will remain windy at the coast through tonight,
especially at the beaches with northeast winds of 20 to 25 mph
and occasional gusts to near 35 mph. Not as windy farther inland
but still in the breezy category for most locations.

Low clouds are expected to fill in across a good portion of the
area today, especially along the coast of northeast Florida where
cloudy conditions should prevail for most of the day. We favored
the cooler side of guidance along the coast and the warmer side of
guidance well inland. There is a slight chance of a stray light
shower in Flagler county today and then a better chance for
coastal showers this evening as a coastal trough shifts towards
the coast. These showers should remain primarily south of Ponte
Vedra Beach. Temps tonight will range from the mid 40s northwest
to the mid 60s southeast.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Saturday...High pressure over the Carolinas nudges slightly
offshore with Sfc winds becoming Easterly with SE steering flow
just above the surface. This will increase cloud cover through the
day with skies becoming partly cloudy SE GA and mostly cloudy NE
FL with chance of showers increasing along the NE FL coast. East
winds 10-15G20-25 mph inland and 15-20G25-30 mph along the coast.
Highs nudge slightly milder, upper 60s at the coast and
lower/middle 70s inland.

Saturday Night...Southeast Steering flow continues to increase
moisture and lift old frontal boundary northward up the FL
peninsula with Mostly Cloudy skies area-wide and at least widely
scattered showers possible area-wide after midnight. Cloud cover
keeps mild temps overnight in the upper 50s SE GA and lower/middle
60s NE FL.

Sunday and Sunday Night...Energy/lift assocd with approaching low
pressure at the surface/aloft along the North GOMEX will increase
rain chances through the day into Sunday Night with Widespread
showers and embedded storms expected with locally heavy rainfall
as warm front lifts into the region and energy gets focused along
this boundary. Highs likely only in the lower/middle 70s with lows
in the lower/middle 60s. The onshore flow will remain
breezy/windy along the coast.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Monday...Low tracks along the frontal boundary from the Panhandle
into South GA by Monday Night with a mid/upper level dry slot
punching in from the SW across the FL peninsula which will shift
the focus of the heavy rainfall northward into SE GA by Monday
Night. Storm total rainfall by Tuesday Morning expects to be at
least in the 1"-3" range with locally higher amounts, best chances
for heavy rainfall will be across SE GA and Atlc Coastal
counties. Numerous showers and embedded storms area-wide Monday
will become a bit more scattered Monday Night as mid/upper level
dry slot shifts into the region. Highs will be in the lower/middle
70s, and lows in the 60s.

Tuesday...00z model suite just a bit slower with Low pressure
over the SE US pushing NE into the Carolinas and trof of low
pressure may hang back across NE FL/SE GA and with daytime heating
may trigger a few isolated showers or storms as temps reach into
the upper 70s/near 80 degrees under Partly Sunny skies.

Wed/Thu...Still expect mainly dry conds with seasonable temps as
Westerly flow sets up in the wake of departing low pressure up the
East Coast. Highs in the upper 70s/near 80 and lows in the 50s.
Breezy West winds 15G25 mph at times.

&&

.AVIATION...

Tricky cloud forecast today. Confident that low clouds will fill
in over much of the area but not as confident on ceiling heights
today. We favored a more pessimistic forecast and went with MVFR
ceilings at all northeast Florida TAF sites setting in by mid to
late morning and continuing through tonight. Gusty northeast winds
will prevail with windy conditions expected at the coastal TAF
sites.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong surge of northeast winds is in the process of quickly
pushing south across the waters. Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots
will gust up to around 35 knots at times. Seas will build to as
high as 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet across the
offshore waters. Small craft advisories remain in effect for all
southeast Georgia and northeast Florida coastal waters.

On Saturday, winds will become more easterly and the model
guidance is now coming in a little stronger for the nearshore
waters, thus we extended the SCA for the nearshore zones through
early next week. Seas will remain elevated and small craft
advisory conditions will remain in place through early next week.
Winds will veer towards the south and increase a bit Sunday night
and Monday as a low pressure system approaches from the west
northwest. The small craft advisory was also extended for the
offshore zones through early next week. This storm system will
also bring potential for storms and heavy rainfall.

Rip Currents: High Risk today due to strong onshore winds and
building/rough surf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  49  75  58 /   0   0   0  20
SSI  64  58  69  62 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  67  58  73  62 /  10  10  20  30
SGJ  67  64  72  65 /  20  20  40  30
GNV  74  58  76  62 /  10  10  20  30
OCF  77  61  78  64 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through late
     tonight for Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through late
     tonight for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Shuler/Hess