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000
FXUS62 KJAX 211927
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
327 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...NORTHEAST FLOW IMPACTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND...

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...

.NEAR TERM /Tonight-Sunday/...
East to Northeast steering flow will continue to slowly weaken
over the next 24 hours as High pressure at the surface and aloft
to the north of the region weakens and drifts south across SE
GA/NE FL. This will lead to the demise of any significant onshore
moving shower activity with sprinkles expected at best, with
measurable rainfall chances falling below 20 percent. The winds
becoming light inland and 5-10 mph along the coast will allow for
widespread lows in the 60s inland, which are at or slightly below
climo values, while the light onshore flow will keep Min temps
closer to 70 degrees at the coast. Some light fog /3-6 mile vsbys/
possible over inland areas towards sunrise Sunday morning but not
significant for inclusion in the forecast at this time. Lighter
onshore flow, warming temps in the mid levels and more sunshine
will start a slight warming trend with highs near 90 inland and
mid to upper 80s closer to the coast/I-95 corridor. Onshore flow
will continue at near breezy levels at the beaches at E-NE 15mph
with gusts 20-25 mph by the afternoon, with winds mainly 5-10 mph
over inland areas.

.SHORT TERM /Sunday Night-Tuesday/...
Warming trend will take place as High pressure aloft gets shunted
towards the south across the FL peninsula and Eastern GOMEX. This
will shift the steering flow from the current onshore /E-NE/
pattern towards a hotter offshore /W-NW/ pattern. This will lead
to temps reaching above normal values into the lower to middle
90s by Tuesday, although overnight lows will stay closer to climo
values in the 60s with the generally drier airmass in place and
lack of any rainfall. Other than above normal temps in the
afternoon hours, any weather impacts will remain limited to some
patchy late night/early morning fog over inland areas.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday-Saturday/...
Generally quiet conditions expected through the period with High
Pressure aloft, while weak surface high pressure ridge over the
region will rebuild over the Carolinas by next weekend. The well
above normal temps in the lower to middle 90s with the offshore
steering flow for Wed/Thu becomes slowly onshore towards the
weekend and this will lead to a slight cooling trend along the
coastal areas with highs back in the 80s along with the threat of
a few coastal showers, while highs over inland areas remain close
to 90 degrees. Weather impacts will be limited through the period
with possible late night inland/early morning fog at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected. Easterly flow elevates winds at coastal
TAF sites through early evening. Winds at the coast will be 10-15
knots with gusts of around 20 knots until late this afternoon.
Winds should subside after sunset before picking up again late
tomorrow morning. No expectation for fog due to the dry air mass
and winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Slow subsiding trend in winds/seas through Monday as High pressure
weakens north of the waters, but will need to keep Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) flags through tonight for the nearshore waters and
through Sunday Night for the offshore waters. Seas will slowly
subside below 7ft by Monday and while SCA flags are not expected
in the lighter winds next week, long period swells will keep
combined seas into the 3-6 ft range through Thursday.

Rip Currents/High Surf: Morning Surf/Breaker reports along the NE
FL coastline showing a wide range with 3-7 ft and Swells reported
at local buoys have dropped off and will drop the High Risk of
rip currents for the SE GA coast, but continue for the NE FL
coast. Also will drop the High Surf Advisory for the JAX coastal
areas, but will keep up High Surf Advisory tonight for lingering
5-7 ft surf along the St Johns/Flagler coastline as buoy 41009 off
Cape Canaveral still showing significant swells early this
afternoon. Swells and surf will continue to slowly subside through
the rest of the weekend.

Coastal Flood: Elevated water levels will continue across the St
Johns River basin during times of high tide through the rest of
the weekend, but should remain slightly below any flood levels so
will replace the small area of Coastal Flood Advisory with Coastal
Flood Statement and extend through the day on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The Max Temps expected into the lower to middle 90s from Tuesday
to Thursday may challenge record daily high Max Temps for local
climate sites across NE FL/SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  89  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  72  83  71  85 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  67  87  68  88 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  72  84  71  85 /  10  10  10   0
GNV  64  89  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  65  90  67  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal Flagler-
     Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Hess/Chaney/Bricker