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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KJAX 201315
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
915 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 910 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track for today and tonight. Morning fog
developments over inland areas are lifting and are expected to
clear by midmorning with scattered showers and possible
thunderstorms building southeast Georgia and potentially extending
into neighboring northeast Florida counties.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Currently, temps are in the 60s to around 70 with light west
winds. Dewpoints in the 60s and the light winds combined with
subsidence producing some patchy radiation and advection fog over
the inland northeast FL area. This fog will shift eastward
over course of the next few hours.

Flow aloft is nearly zonal, but an upper level trough over the
southwest CONUS will translate eastward, and attempt to phase
with energy across the northern U.S. embedded in a long wave
trough. Heights across the southeast U.S. are expected to decrease
and models show weak embedded shortwaves moving into our area in
mainly zonal flow this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front. The cold front looks to be positioned across SC to central
GA to south central AL this morning, and will move slowly
southeastward through tonight into our area. The front may drop
to around the FL/GA border by late tonight. The frontal boundary
combined with lift from shortwave energy will support isolated to
scattered convection. Some potential for a strong storm or two
mainly over northern most zones, given adequate effective shear of
up to 25-30 kt and MLCAPE reaching upwards of about 800-1400 J/kg
late today and tonight. Main threats will be strong gusty winds
and marginally severe hail. Timing may be more toward evening
hours and possibly til about 1-2 AM tonight. SPC has highlighted a
marginal risk of severe storms from Waycross northward through
tonight.

Higher than normal max temps today with upper 80s to possibly lower
90s in a few spots and will be close to record levels. Notes
in the climate section.

Tonight, isolated to scattered convection expected through the evening
over the north zones, with activity shifting west to east. Expecting
a downward trend in intensity and coverage after midnight. Some patchy
fog possible overnight but looks fairly low chances at this time.
Lows tonight mainly in the 60s, warmest readings over the north
portions due to clouds and some precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The cold front will sit near the FL/GA state border on Sunday,
allowing for a decent range in high temperatures, inland SE GA
will see highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with NE FL reaching
the mid to upper 80s, potentially reaching 90 near the St. Johns
river basin. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will begin in the
morning for SE GA, spreading southward throughout the day, with
the greatest coverage over SE GA in the afternoon and evening
hours, shifting eastward overnight. Storms will slowly move south
and eastward throughout the day on Monday as the front moves
southward, with most of the area clear by sunset. Monday will be
much cooler, with highs only reaching the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Dry weather will be in place for the rest of the week behind the
cold frontal passage as high pressure builds. A gradual warm-up in
temperatures is expected throughout the week, by Wednesday SE GA
and NE FL outside of the immediate coast will see high
temperatures back in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions through much of the forecasted period, with early
morning fog developments clearing before midmorning. Potential for
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening hours for SSI as widely scattered convection passes
through southeast Georgia. Patchy dense early morning fog will
develop on Sunday towards the end of the forecasted period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Light west to southwest winds this morning will begin to turn southerly
this aftn as the sea breeze develops. A slight ramp up in winds
expected this evening before turning offshore again. Cold front
will begin to enter the area waters Sunday and then shift well
south of the area Monday. Small craft advisory conditions may
begin as early as Sunday night as northerly winds increase. SCA
looks probable for Monday til Tuesday, with winds dropping of
during the day on Tuesday, though seas will remain elevated. Winds
and seas continue to be diminish by Wednesday as high pressure
ridge will dominate the area by then.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate risk is placed in for northeast
FL with swells of about 2 ft with periods about 10 seconds. Lower
end risk for southeast GA beaches for today. Somewhat lower risk
appears in place for Sunday given mostly an offshore wind and
smaller swell heights.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Max temps around 90 degrees can be expected at local climate sites
today, 4/20, and will be close to record levels, mainly for
JAX and CRG.

                        Record High     Average 1st date
                        Saturday 4/20   to Reach >= 90F

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)   92/1995         April 25
Craig Field, FL (CRG)    91/2002         April 22
Gainesville, FL (GNV)    94/1892         April 21
Alma, Georgia (AMG)      93/1968           May 2

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG  90  66  78  53 /  30  30  70  50
SSI  86  66  81  56 /  20  20  60  60
JAX  92  64  86  57 /  10  10  50  70
SGJ  90  64  88  61 /  10  10  30  60
GNV  90  61  85  59 /  10   0  30  50
OCF  89  61  85  63 /   0   0  20  40
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$