-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
110
FXUS63 KJKL 131237
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
837 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- High temperatures will range from near to slightly above normal
  through next week.

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist for the
  next week, especially during afternoon and evening hours.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 834 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025

The forecast is updated to reflect the latest radar trends with
spotty showers over the area. More development should occur
during the day after diurnal destabilization occurs.

UPDATE Issued at 1230 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with a touch up to the PoPs and Wx through the rest of the
night per the current radar images and CAMs guidance. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 840 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure to the south of the
state and lower pressure to the northwest. The latest semi-
organized cluster of storms is steadily shifting east through the
state and starting to impinge on the JKL CWA with gusty winds the
main concern. Otherwise, only isolated convection is noted across
the area and skies are mostly clear. In addition, just light and
variable winds are seen - outside of any of the storms. Currently
temperatures vary from the lower 70s in the east where the storms
moved through earlier to the still mid 80s in the western
Cumberland Valley region. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in
the sticky lower 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with an
adjustment to the PoPs through the night per the current radar
images and CAMs guidance. These relatively minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the zones and SAFs.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025

Current surface analysis across the CONUS is quite active, with a
surface perturbation moving across its northern half. The main
synoptic feature is a surface low tracking across the Great Lakes
region. Currently, its positioned over Michigan`s Upper
Peninsula. The warm front extends west to east from the lows
center, across Canada, and into New England. The corresponding
cold front stretches southwestward from the lows center, reaching
down to the southern Central Plains. Locally, eastern Kentucky is
firmly within the warm sector regime, behind the warm front but
ahead of the approaching cold front. This setup will lead to
warmer temperatures as southwesterly flow advects warmer
temperatures and higher dew points into the region. This is
already reflected in current temperatures, which have climbed into
the mid to upper 80s.

Through the remainder of the day, temperatures will continue to
climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, throughout the
afternoon, there will be increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these have already started to develop but are
short-lived. The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms today, as this afternoons convection could bring an
isolated threat of a stronger storm. Any storms that do develop
could bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. However, since
shear values are nonexistent to negligible, widespread severe storms
are not expected. Showers and storms will dissipate toward the
overnight hours, leading to a mostly dry night with areas of fog and
overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Sunday will bring another day of highs in the mid to upper 80s, with
increasing threats for convection as the front finally moves into
the region. As with Saturday, strong storms are possible, but shear
continues to be lacking; therefore, significant severe weather is
not anticipated. Models indicate the front will stall out across the
area from northeast to southwest. As this occurs, PoP chances will
continue from Sunday afternoon through the overnight into Monday.
Sunday night will closely mirror Saturday night, with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

Overall, the period will be highlighted by rounds of showers and
storms, some of which could be severe. Highs will climb into the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows falling into the upper
60s to lower 70s, along with areas of fog.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The long term forecast period features a typical summertime weather
pattern in Eastern Kentucky. The forecast guidance suite remains in
generally good agreement on the overarching synoptic features within
this time frame. Thus, confidence is fairly high that Eastern
Kentucky will experience seasonably warm/humid conditions and daily
diurnal peaks in shower/storm chances throughout the next work week.

The period opens on Monday with the northeastward ejection of the
trough responsible for this past weekend`s active weather. As the
upper level pattern deamplifies in its wake, the surface "cool
front" associated with it is poised to stall out over the forecast
area. The lack of upper level dynamic support will reduce the risk
for organized severe weather, but daytime heating and convergence
along this boundary should yield scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
The storms that develop will pose a risk for locally heavy rainfall,
lightning, and perhaps some gusty winds. Winds on Monday will have a
more northwesterly component to them on the cooler side of the
boundary. This favors relatively cooler highs in the upper 80s
across northern portions of the forecast area, whereas southern
portions will likely be closer to 90. The warmer temperatures in the
south favor slightly higher PoPs south of the Mountain Parkway on
Monday afternoon and evening, but rising heights overnight should
suppress convection after sunset. Expect overnight lows near 70, with
slightly cooler valleys and slightly warmer ridgetops. Valley fog
appears most likely in the river valleys, but wet grounds could
allow fog to form elsewhere.

Ridging builds into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, with
afternoon highs warming into the lower 90s on both days in response
to rising heights and a return to southerly surface flow. While
isolated afternoon showers and storms cannot be ruled out on
Tuesday, Tuesday generally looks drier than Wednesday. A series of
shortwave disturbances will move through the Greater Ohio River
Valley on Wednesday and Thursday, and rain chances increase on these
days accordingly. The highest PoPs will remain in the
afternoon/evening hours as temps warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s,
but some residual cloud coverage could linger into the overnight
hours. This reduces confidence in the magnitude of overnight ridge-
valley splits and valley fog formation deeper into the forecast
period. For now, fog grids were limited to only the deepest river
valleys and only minor adjustments were made to the MinT grids.

Overall, expect warm temperatures and scattered showers and storms
chances each day in the long term forecast period. Said showers and
storms may provide some localized relief from the heat each
afternoon, but the cumulative nature of highs near 90 and lows near
70 over four-plus days will lead to increasing Heat Risk across
Eastern Kentucky. Thus, interests with outdoor plans next week
should plan ahead for potential impacts from both thunderstorms and
heat. Readers are encouraged to have multiple ways to receive
warnings for convection and to take breaks inside if working
outdoors for prolonged periods of time. As always, when thunder
roars, go indoors.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025

Although a spotty SHRA cannot be ruled out early in the period,
most sites remain dry until this afternoon when some spotty
diurnally-driven SHRA/TSRA activity once again sprouts about by
the afternoon. Have handled this with PROB30 for now given ISO
coverage.

VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites at issuance as fog
remained confined to area river valleys. VFR Cu will increase by
late morning through the daytime. By late this evening into
tonight, some additional ISO SHRA/TSRA will be possible, although
the greatest coverage should remain N of the terminals. Have
added a PROB30 to account for this potential. Lastly, winds will
be light and variable outside of any convection.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...ILN