Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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352 FXUS63 KJKL 191510 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1110 AM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1110 AM EDT MON APR 19 2021 Forecast is in good shape this morning. Updated grids for latest hourly obs. Also freshened up zone wording and removed morning fog. Removed PoPs as well since light rain has ended across the area. Still looking at some CU development through at least early afternoon before drier air filters into the area. No other changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 834 AM EDT MON APR 19 2021 A few light showers continue to linger over the area, however these should dissipate within the next couple of hours. Tweaked the sky grids to fine tune the clearing based on recent guidance, but otherwise the forecast appears to be on track and the only other edits were to blend in recent obs. Updates were sent and fresh zones were generated. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday evening) Issued at 615 AM EDT MON APR 19 2021 As of 8z, spotty rain showers are scattered across the southern half of the CWA, supported aloft by a weak passing wave. This activity is expected to diminish as we head through the early morning and the shortwave continues to dampen as it moves east. Though fog development might be somewhat inhibited by the continuing cloud cover, Some patchy fog is still possible early this morning, especially down in our southwest where there has been more rain. Temperatures display quite a range this morning at 8z. Areas in the northeast, where cloud cover has been a little less opaque, are down in the upper 30s to around 40. Meanwhile, down in the southwest where more of the rain and thicker cloud cover resides, temperatures are warmer in the mid to upper 40s. Models are in fair agreement, with some slight differences emerging near the end of the period. They depict the exit and continued dampening of the shortwave that is currently passing over the area. This feature should be off to our east by roughly mid-afternoon. On a larger scale, a broad trough can be seen across much of the CONUS. An initial wave moves across the Great Lakes region this afternoon into early Tuesday morning, supporting a surface low over roughly the same region, if not slightly north. By Tuesday morning, a front extending down from this low lies over the northern Ohio Valley down into the Southern Plains, where a reinforcing upper level wave is aiding the development of another surface low along the front. This low then moves northeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Tuesday afternoon, bringing the cold front to Kentucky`s door step. However, the GFS is a little faster and has the front further into Kentucky by the end of the short term. However, it does appear to be more of an outlier in this regard, so didn`t put as much weight into it`s timing of things. In terms of sensible weather, showers should exit this morning and skies should clear going through the day, becoming partly cloudy by the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 60s for highs. Overall, a pretty pleasant day. The continued cloud clearing will help facilitate a decent ridge-valley split tonight. Temperatures are expected to range from the upper 30s in the valleys, up to the mid 40s along the ridges. Given the better radiative conditions, some patchy fog is also possible down in the river valleys. With the warm air advection out ahead of the front, Tuesday will be warmer, with highs generally from the upper 60s to low 70s. Cloud cover will increase slightly through the afternoon with the front`s approach, generally increasing from northwest to southeast. Most guidance was in agreement that rain would stay to the northwest through the day Tuesday, so held off PoPs accordingly. The GFS was a little faster, with PoPs nearing the edge of the CWA by the end of the period, but again, leaned a little slower with the majority of guidance. Things could also get a little bit gustier than we have seen recently ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon, with gusts expected to peak between 15 and 20 kts. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 616 AM EDT MON APR 19 2021 An upper level trough will make its way from the Northern Plains, entering the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, and bringing an increased potential for wet weather with it. At the surface, a low will track right over Eastern KY with an associated cold front passing through Tuesday night. Light rain showers are expected with the passing of the front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Broad upper level ridging will move in behind the trough ahead of another disturbance which is expected to impact our area over the weekend. Confidence in the large scale pattern has increased for the weekend system, but onset of precipitation is still up in the air at this time. The GFS continues to be the most progressive Tuesday night, bringing precipitation into the eastern portion of the CWA by 06z Wednesday, while the other models hold off until closer to 12z. The NBM was more aggressive with high PoPs across the area, and have adjusted them down slightly due to the disagreement in model timing. The quick round of showers for Thursday has persisted in the GFS, with the ECMWF and Canadian also picking up more so on the potential for showers, but not nearly as aggressively as the GFS has. If showers do develop Thursday, they will likely be in the northern and eastern portions of the CWA. Overall, the models show another disturbance moving into our area Saturday into Sunday. The GFS has a more amplified pattern, while the ECMWF and Canadian have a broader wave solution. The NBM continued to be aggressive with PoPs Saturday into Sunday, and have knocked values down to a more reasonable value for this late in the period. CAA behind the cold front will keep high temperatures well below normal on Wednesday, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s. A modest temperature rebound is expected Thursday with highs reaching the low 50s and more gradual rebounds through the weekend. Have adjusted low temps Thursday night, including more of a ridge/valley split, given the southwesterly flow and mostly clear skies through at least the first half of the night. Areas of frost are expected Thursday and Friday morning, as low temps drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 834 AM EDT MON APR 19 2021 VFR conditions prevail across TAF sites this morning. A few light showers are still lingering near KJKL and areas south and east but should be dissipating within the next couple of hours. Ceilings range anywhere from 5 to 10K ft AGL and will gradually raise during the day as skies clear. Winds will remain generally out of the west, peaking this afternoon to between 5 and 10 kts before relaxing again after sunset. Some fog is possible down in the river valleys late tonight into early Tuesday morning. However, at this time, TAF sites look to remain unaffected. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...BATZ/GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.