Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 241355 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 955 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 955 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2018 An area of surface high pressure is placed to our northeast across western PA. This will be the controlling factor for the near term period and will provide mostly sunny skies to eastern Kentucky. The CAMs remain in good agreement on some convection developing near and along the terrain near the VA border of KY this afternoon. This maybe driven by what looks like a weak surface trough near the border in SW VA and eastern TN. Overall this morning the fog has cleared with maybe some isolated fog or stratus in Pike county. Updated to take out the fog and blend in the latest obs. UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2018 Did a quick update to the grids to reflect the current status of the fog/dense fog in the river valleys along with sky cover. Also, added in the latest obs and trends for the T and Td grids. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 320 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2018 06z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the northeast of Kentucky. This is responsible for mostly clear skies - with just a thin layer of high clouds found across the region - and light winds tonight. This is resulting in a small to moderate ridge to valley temperature split. Readings are running in the low to mid 60s on the ridges and more open locations with mid to upper 50s found in the sheltered valleys. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are in the mid 50s north to the low and mid 60s south. Enough moisture is found in the valleys that areas of fog have developed with some patches/areas of dense likely near the rivers toward dawn. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a retreating trough to the northeast giving way to increasing heights and ridging moving over Kentucky today. However, even before sunset, this ridge will be weakening with lower heights working in from the south along with the approach of mid level energy from the northwest. Accordingly, for Friday, a weak trough from the north will impact the area along with some weak batches of energy while to the south heights continue to fall. Given the solid model agreement have favored a general blend with a lean toward the higher resolution guidance from the HRRR and NAM12 through the short term period of the forecast. Sensible weather will feature a continued welcomed break from the humidity and storms of the past week for most of eastern Kentucky today - following the burning off of the river valley fog this morning. The exception will be in the higher terrain of the far southeast where a few showers and storms could develop late in the afternoon. For tonight, the diurnal convection in the southeast will fade out along with the clouds setting the stage for another night of decent radiational cooling and a small to moderate ridge to valley temperature split. Again some patchy valley fog can be anticipated along the rivers. More moisture in the area, working in from the south, on Friday will result in a good chance of showers and thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon. This convection will be enhanced by higher PWS (over 1.75 inches) due to a connection to the tropics. Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend guidance as the starting point for all the grids with some point and terrain based adjustments to temperatures - particularly early this morning and again tonight. As for PoPs, have beefed up the diurnal nature a tad from the guidance but did not deviate far. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 301 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2018 A typical summer time weather pattern is on tap in the extended. A series of weather systems moving across the region will interact with very warm, moist air coming off the Gulf of Mexico to produce showers and thunderstorms each day. The afternoon and early evening hours will be favored for thunderstorms each day. Above normal temperatures will continue to be the norm as well, with daily highs in the low to mid 80s and nightly lows in the low to mid 60s expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2018 VFR conditions will be seen through much of the TAF forecast period thanks to weak high pressure just off to the northeast. However, valley fog will be around this morning for another hour or so. There is a potential for a stray storm or two to pop up this afternoon near the Virginia border but the TAF locations should be unaffected. For tonight, expect some valley fog to form again, but more in the way of high and mid level clouds around should limit the coverage and again leave the aviation sites largely unscathed. Winds will continue to be light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.