Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 151922 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 322 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 301 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018 Widespread rain showers will continue to move across eastern Kentucky through early this evening before finally tapering off during the overnight hours. A an isolated rumble of thunder cannot be ruled through this afternoon either. A cold front will be moving through the area this evening, and will usher colder air into the area tonight through Monday night. The rain will mix with and change to snow tonight to mark the initial push of colder air. Due to warm ground and pavement temperatures, however, little if snow accumulation is expected for most locations. The higher terrain along the VA and WV borders could see a few tenths to half an inch of snow, but only along the tallest peaks. Monday looks to be a cold, raw, and cloud day, with highs expected to only make it into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Isolated to scattered rain and snow shower linger across eastern Kentucky Monday and Monday night before finally exiting the area early Tuesday morning. Tonights lows will be quite cold, with minimum readings in the lower 30s expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 318 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018 A large upper level low will continue to spin NE across the lower Great Lakes and New England from Tuesday morning through Wednesday night. This will keep KY in a deep NW flow pattern during the day Tuesday, with increasing heights expected heading into the day Wednesday. Ridging will remain in place briefly during the day Wednesday. Meanwhile, both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement of another closed low moving across the northern Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley during this time. By Wednesday night, however, the 2 models begin to show considerable timing differences, with the GFS some 6 to 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. The track of the low system remains in agreement, however, bringing the center of the upper level low across the Ohio Valley just north of Kentucky late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. While the low should exit NE of the region by Thursday evening, the ECMWF shows troughing remaining into Friday, while the GFS shows more of a NW flow ridge moving in during this time. Both models come into better agreement of the ridge moving in overhead for the first half of the weekend, encompassing much of the Ohio Valley and points southward. Meanwhile, another closed low will be brewing across the southern Plains, and will quickly shift eastward towards the mid Mississippi Valley and western Kentucky during the day Sunday. With so much troughing and NW flow across the region, expect the advection of cooler air into the region, preventing daytime highs from reaching seasonable normals on most days. Highs will generally be in the 50s and low 60s throughout the workweek and into next weekend. The only exception will be Wednesday afternoon just ahead of a surface low pressure system, with breezy SW flow in place across eastern Kentucky. This front is expected to pass through late Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing with it low end rain chances. Behind the front, expect a broad area of high pressure expanding northward into Canada to begin approaching the Ohio Valley, with deep northerly flow in place bringing the return of those well below normal temperatures. This broad area of high pressure will, however, keep conditions dry heading to the weekend (with the exception of some slight chance pops for upslope flow in the high terrain on Friday). Another low pressure and frontal system will impact the state for the weekend, bringing precip chances to eastern Kentucky Saturday night and through the day Sunday. As for overnight temperatures, with such a cold airmass in place after Wednesday`s cold front, any clearing that takes place will help to quickly cool temperatures across eastern Kentucky, especially in the valleys. As a result, expect several nights throughout the extended portion of the forecast where at or just below freezing temperatures will be possible. Areas of frost are forecast for Friday morning, then again on Saturday morning. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018 Rain showers will continue to impact all of eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening along/ahead of a cold front. A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings currently exists, with mostly MVFR ceilings expected through much of the period. Any areas that experience heavier showers may also see some IFR ceilings/visibilities. The bulk of the rainfall has nudged east of SJS as MVFR ceilings continue. Scattered showers will remain possible through tonight, mixing in with some light snow showers by Monday morning, although accumulations on tarmacs are not expected. Winds have switched to westerly across most of the area as the front has nearly exited the area already. BKN to OVC cloud cover will prevail across the area for the entire period. Winds will remain persistent at around 10 mph and will gust to 15 to 20 mph at times.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...AR

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