Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 160855 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 455 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 455 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2018 08z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Upper Midwest and nosing into northeast Kentucky. At the same time, low pressure is coming out of the Southern Plains and is starting to bolster a boundary lying across southern parts of the area with increasing clouds. Before they fill in very much, clear skies (and light to calm winds) have allowed a fairly large ridge to valley temperature split to develop, primarily in the east, ranging from the lower 40s on the hills to the upper 20s in the sheltered low spots. To the west, conditions are more uniform due to better mixing most of the night. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s throughout the area. The models are in better agreement aloft for the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a flattening ridge slipping over and through Kentucky today in the face of a dampening mid level closed low spreading east along the Ohio River later tonight and into Saturday. The energy associated with this will start to impact the area after midnight with several separate impulses passing through eastern Kentucky during the day Saturday. The NAM is slightly stronger with these than the other models and was preferred. In general, a model blend was favored on account of the improving agreement, with a lean toward the higher resolution NAM12 and HRRR in the near term. Sensible weather will feature a cooler day than yesterday as the high pressure exerts its fleeting influence over the region. Meanwhile, a boundary to the southwest will become more of a warm front, one with with increasing and lowering clouds, that will start to lift northeast by the end of the afternoon. This will become more activated this evening with showers and possible thunderstorms expected to move through eastern Kentucky ahead of the potent sfc low cutting east-southeast through the northern parts of the state overnight into Saturday morning. Luckily, the front will bring enough warmer air aloft and at the sfc for the JKL CWA to prevent a concern for freezing rain or sleet at its onset. The low`s movement will keep much of eastern Kentucky in the system`s warm sector with at least some instability building along with a good wind profile for storm development. In fact, some locations in the Cumberland Valley could reach 70 degrees (while upper 40s for highs are found near and north of Interstate 64 where the warm front will stall out). Accordingly, SPC has placed much of the area in an outlook for a marginal threat of severe weather on Saturday with large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts the main threats. Have included thunder in the wx grids for this and highlighted the severe potential in the HWO. This core of the sfc low will pass through eastern Kentucky by 00z Sunday with cooler conditions to follow. Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend to kick start the grids with some significant temperature and dewpoint adjustments in the near term per the current conditions reflecting a strong ridge to valley difference for the eastern valleys. As for PoP, did bring some small chances in a tad quicker this evening and into the overnight as the sfc low gets closer. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 455 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2018 Will be issued shortly. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2018 VFR conditions will continue to be the rule through the forecast period even as some mid level clouds build to the south with a developing warm front later into Friday morning. These clouds will thicken and lower in time so that a few showers will be possible along the boundary just after midnight Friday night increasing in coverage through the night and into Saturday morning. Winds will be light and variable through the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.