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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 221951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
351 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 351 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018

The latest surface analysis shows an area of surface high pressure
continue to retreat northward. The east to southeast winds
continue to lead to downslope flow and drier conditions across the
region this afternoon. The latest scans of the regional WSR-88D
radars suggest some of the rain shower activity is just now
creeping into Wayne County. Given the continued slower trend, did
opt to lower POPs for the afternoon. This upper level low to our
south will continue to rotate east and eventually divergence aloft
will lead to best chances of rain showers early Monday. Then a
lull in activity is expected later in the day mainly in the far
east, as 1000 to 850 mb winds increase leading to increased
downsloping. The 00Z NAEFS standard anomaly tables show the 850mb
winds are going to be oriented southeast and running greater than
3 standard deviations above normal. There is some weak
instability in the Lake Cumberland region Monday afternoon and did
lean toward slight chance thunder. The upper level divergence
becomes broad Monday night, but the surface low and trough will
come east. This will lead to increasing chances of POPs once again
Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018

Upper level low will continue to cross the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night with the unsettled weather continuing. Some rumbles
of thunder will be possible with a little elevated instability
present on Tuesday. Best rain chances will reside on Tuesday,
before the forcing exits east and north. However, with weak
upslope flow continuing into Wednesday, a few isolated showers or
pockets of drizzle may be possible. Drier weather returns for
Wednesday night and Thursday with a surface high crossing the
area.

Still looks like another shortwave trough will cross the area
Friday into early Saturday with still some timing and strength
differences in the models. Thus, will maintain small rain chances
Friday and Friday night. If the trough is stronger as a few models
indicate, we could see a modest cool down for Saturday. However,
models continue to flip flop on the strength. Any cool down will
be short lived as heights will start to build again by Sunday with
a pleasant end to the weekend expected. There is a chance most of
the weekend could be nice if the trough for Friday night is
weaker.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018

We remain under the influence of a surface high across the Great
Lakes but this will slowly move out of the picture. We are seeing
a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon and better moisture
remains to our south across the Tennessee Valley. This has been
aided by the downsloped flow that will continue to keep VFR
conditions in place across eastern Kentucky for the TAF cycle.
This has also slowed the progression of precipitation northward
and this trend will continue until later today into the overnight
hours. The better chances of seeing rain showers will be across
the Lake Cumberland region, but again these showers will remain in
the VFR range for VIS and CIGs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ