Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 221951 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 351 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 351 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018 The latest surface analysis shows an area of surface high pressure continue to retreat northward. The east to southeast winds continue to lead to downslope flow and drier conditions across the region this afternoon. The latest scans of the regional WSR-88D radars suggest some of the rain shower activity is just now creeping into Wayne County. Given the continued slower trend, did opt to lower POPs for the afternoon. This upper level low to our south will continue to rotate east and eventually divergence aloft will lead to best chances of rain showers early Monday. Then a lull in activity is expected later in the day mainly in the far east, as 1000 to 850 mb winds increase leading to increased downsloping. The 00Z NAEFS standard anomaly tables show the 850mb winds are going to be oriented southeast and running greater than 3 standard deviations above normal. There is some weak instability in the Lake Cumberland region Monday afternoon and did lean toward slight chance thunder. The upper level divergence becomes broad Monday night, but the surface low and trough will come east. This will lead to increasing chances of POPs once again Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 340 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018 Upper level low will continue to cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night with the unsettled weather continuing. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible with a little elevated instability present on Tuesday. Best rain chances will reside on Tuesday, before the forcing exits east and north. However, with weak upslope flow continuing into Wednesday, a few isolated showers or pockets of drizzle may be possible. Drier weather returns for Wednesday night and Thursday with a surface high crossing the area. Still looks like another shortwave trough will cross the area Friday into early Saturday with still some timing and strength differences in the models. Thus, will maintain small rain chances Friday and Friday night. If the trough is stronger as a few models indicate, we could see a modest cool down for Saturday. However, models continue to flip flop on the strength. Any cool down will be short lived as heights will start to build again by Sunday with a pleasant end to the weekend expected. There is a chance most of the weekend could be nice if the trough for Friday night is weaker.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018 We remain under the influence of a surface high across the Great Lakes but this will slowly move out of the picture. We are seeing a mix of sun and clouds this afternoon and better moisture remains to our south across the Tennessee Valley. This has been aided by the downsloped flow that will continue to keep VFR conditions in place across eastern Kentucky for the TAF cycle. This has also slowed the progression of precipitation northward and this trend will continue until later today into the overnight hours. The better chances of seeing rain showers will be across the Lake Cumberland region, but again these showers will remain in the VFR range for VIS and CIGs. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...DJ

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