Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161146 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 746 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 746 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018 Several clusters of showers continue to generate and slide across eastern Kentucky this morning in a cold air advection/upslope flow regime. Updated the forecast to include more of a rain/snow mix rather than just snow as cooling has trended a bit slower. Should see a gradual transition to mostly snow by mid-late morning as cooling and wet-bulb processes continue.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 357 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018 Rounds of light shower activity continue to stream across eastern Kentucky early this morning, courtesy of moist upslope flow. A strong upper level low will rotate across the upper Ohio Valley today, keeping cold air advection intact. Given the presence of cyclonic flow underneath this feature along with the nearby presence of the left exit region of a 115 knot jet streak, plenty of large scale lift will be in place through the day to generate isolated to scattered showers when combined with upslope enhancement. These will transition to mostly snow later this morning as the column cools and saturation extends into the dendritic growth zone. Accumulations still look rather anemic given the quickly passing nature of these as well as relatively warm ground temperatures. May see a dusting on grassy or elevated surfaces with perhaps up to an inch on top of Black Mountain. Wind speeds of near or greater than 30 knots below a frontal inversion between 4000-5000 feet off the ground, will maintain breezy west winds increasing to 15-20 mph later this morning into this evening. Have opted to issue a Lake Wind Advisory for Cave Run Lake, Laurel River Lake, and Lake Cumberland from late this morning through mid evening. This wind will help to keep temperatures confined to the upper 30s for daytime highs this afternoon with wind chills largely holding near or below 30 degrees. Snow showers/flurries will taper off this evening as large scale lift pulls off to the northeast and subsidence approaches from the west/southwest. Winds will still hold near 10 mph through the night as a decent pressure gradient remains intact across eastern Kentucky. Clouds will be slow to scour out from southwest to northeast, therefore bringing the best chances for widespread frost to portions of southeastern Kentucky tonight. However, all of eastern Kentucky will likely see temperatures fall to near or below freezing for at least a couple of hours tonight and early Tuesday morning, owing to the cool start this evening. A Freeze Warning has been hoisted from mid evening through late Tuesday morning. Temperatures will rebound into the mid 50s to low 60s Tuesday afternoon as shortwave ridging and subsequent warm air advection materialize across eastern Kentucky. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 357 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018 The period will be met with rising heights, as an upper level ridge advects eastward across the Ohio Valley. This along with developing warm front lifting into the Ohio Valley will provide warm air advection Wednesday, as afternoon high temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s. An upper level low to our northwest will pull a surface low into the Great Lakes, with an attendant cold front pushing into the region late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Overall the upper level forcing will be quite weak and not much in the way of moisture return, and therefore this will lead to light QPF and low POP chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. In the wake of the front, expect cooler weather to ensue once again, as 850mb temperatures drop back below zero Thursday. An area of surface high pressure and upper level ridging will lead to another period of dry weather, with frost possible Friday and Saturday mornings. There will be some modification to round out the period, with afternoon highs climbing back into the 60s for Saturday and Sunday. Then a southern stream upper level low will progress eastward and this will lead to chances of rainfall along a developing warm front late Saturday night into Sunday. The overall long range models are showing reasonable agreement in the general synoptic patterns. There remains some timing differences in the upper levels especially toward the end of the period this weekend. Given this was able to stick closer to the blended model data for most of the period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018 MVFR ceilings will likely be in place through much of today as gusty west winds continue. These gusts will approach 30 knots or slightly greater at times as sustained speeds range from 15-25 knots later this morning through this afternoon. Speeds will likely remain around 10 knots or so tonight as clouds gradually scour out from southwest to northeast. May see borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings persist for a good portion of tonight, but infiltrating subsidence and drier air should point more toward the VFR end. Isolated to scattered rain/snow showers will also linger through much of this afternoon and likely into this evening for JKL/SJS/SYM as these west winds produce upslope flow along the higher terrain of western Virginia and far eastern Kentucky. Despite temperatures struggling to climb out of the 30s at the surface this afternoon, tarmacs should remain wet as opposed to icy.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ051-052-060-079-080-083>085-106. Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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