Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 140734 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 334 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2018 Current conditions across the area feature the last of a wave swing southeast through eastern Kentucky as the parent upper low slowly exits to the northeast over the Northeast CONUS. Northwest winds continue across the area heading into the dawn hours. This will keep the presence of snow showers across the area through the post dawn hours. With a rapid decrease of moisture, will be losing the moisture depth and thus the snow shower threat will be ending by mid morning. The accumulating snow over the western CWA will be coming to an end and thus will be ending the WSW at least for a portion of eastern Kentucky. In fact, dry air following in behind this impulse will drop dew points for the day today into the teens. Highs will struggle to get out of the 30s today will the colder air filtering into the region, even despite the clearing skies. Clear skies to begin this evening will allow valley temps to plummet into the 20s at least for the first part of tonight. The last piece of moisture dropping south from the exiting upper low will bring a brief period of cloud cover to mainly eastern portions of the area. This will slow the ridge to valley temperature difference. The last of the upper low will lift to the northeast for the day on Thursday allowing high pressure and clearing skies to dominate the weather. This will allow temperatures to rebound to near 60 in some areas. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2018 The overall upper air pattern at the start of this forecast period will feature upper lows centered off the Pacific northwest coast and just east of Maine, with associated troughs in the eastern and western part of the country. Ridging will be over the central part of the country. Flow will be split into northern and southern streams. By Friday a piece of energy from the western trough will eject east gradually working its way east in the southern stream. It will make its way across the OH valley during the early part of the weekend. Early next week another wave, more in the northern stream will also move across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The weather will be fairly active in our area with an initial chance of precipitation associated with an approaching warm front Thursday night into Friday. The precipitation chances will be confined to the southern part of the forecast area, and some snow will be possible early Friday morning on the northern fringes of any precipitation. From Friday night into Saturday we will begin to feel the affects of the already mentioned upper level energy approaching from the west at the start of the weekend. on the northern fringes of the any precipitation from Friday night into Saturday a little snow will be possible before rain becomes likely across most of the area during the day Saturday. It should be noted that any brief light snow that occurs early Friday and early Saturday will be minimal with no impacts expected. As such this will not be highlighted in the hazardous weather outlook. After a break in precipitation chances Sunday, rain chances will return again Monday afternoon, with the rain chances increasing as we move into Monday night. Temperatures will average near to slightly below normal for the first part of the forecast period, then trend to slightly above normal by Sunday into Monday, before trending back towards normal to slightly below towards the end of the forecast period.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2018 With northwest winds continuing through the night, some upslope conditions will persist along with a passing disturbance. This will be enough for snow showers to persist through much of the night and mainly over the southern TAF sites. Thus will expect some IFR to MVFR conditions at SME, LOZ, and SJS at most. VFR conditions should remain at JKL and SYM. After this wave passes through, this will bring an end to the snow showers with improving cigs through the day today. Winds will remain northwest with some gusts up to 20 knots. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for KYZ058- 059-068-069-079-080-084>087-107>109-111-112-114-116-119. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ088- 110-113-115-117-118-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.